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The End of the Universe Sooner then Expected

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Jono
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06 Oct 2010, 4:48 pm

DeaconBlues wrote:
Jookia wrote:
danandlouie wrote:
well, i asked jesus, and jesus said it will be approx.one billion years when the temp gets so hot that the oceans will start to boil away and all sorts of crap happens. if humans haven't vacated the old homestead by then, well they can just kiss their butts good-bye.


Jesus is dead, your prediction is void.

He got better....

More seriously, reviewing the article tells me that these gentlemen, while probably quite brilliant physicists, know about as much probability theory as your average lottery player. It's a basic rule of probability that the number of observations has no bearing on the outcome of future trials; no matter how many times you flip that coin and get heads, the odds it'll come up heads next time are 50/50, because in the memorable phrasing of Larry Niven, "Lady Luck has no memory."

Even should Freeman Dyson's calculations (that the last proton will decay, and thus the universe will effectively end, in 10^10^40 years) prove inaccurate, and the universe should somehow continue into a true infinity, that will not in the least require that "every possible outcome" of every interaction must occur. No breakdown of physics is implied.

Besides, their assumption that this must somehow cause time to suddenly end before their hypothesized "probability running out" scenario occurs smacks rather clearly of some sort of interventionist Editor belief - "It will never happen, because the Great Senior Professor will put a stop to it!" Pure philosophizing, bordering on religion, and having no place in a serious scientific paper.


I've already said that I think their reasoning is rather dubious.



LordoftheMonkeys
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06 Oct 2010, 7:36 pm

Aimless wrote:
Let's worry about this first, shall we? 8O
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc[/youtube]


Why is the background music so happy when the asteroid kills everyone?


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Aimless
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06 Oct 2010, 7:47 pm

LordoftheMonkeys wrote:
Aimless wrote:
Let's worry about this first, shall we? 8O
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc[/youtube]


Why is the background music so happy when the asteroid kills everyone?


I don't know, but it's a compelling visual isn't it?



Tollorin
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06 Oct 2010, 8:29 pm

Jono wrote:
DeaconBlues wrote:
Jookia wrote:
danandlouie wrote:
well, i asked jesus, and jesus said it will be approx.one billion years when the temp gets so hot that the oceans will start to boil away and all sorts of crap happens. if humans haven't vacated the old homestead by then, well they can just kiss their butts good-bye.


Jesus is dead, your prediction is void.

He got better....

More seriously, reviewing the article tells me that these gentlemen, while probably quite brilliant physicists, know about as much probability theory as your average lottery player. It's a basic rule of probability that the number of observations has no bearing on the outcome of future trials; no matter how many times you flip that coin and get heads, the odds it'll come up heads next time are 50/50, because in the memorable phrasing of Larry Niven, "Lady Luck has no memory."

Even should Freeman Dyson's calculations (that the last proton will decay, and thus the universe will effectively end, in 10^10^40 years) prove inaccurate, and the universe should somehow continue into a true infinity, that will not in the least require that "every possible outcome" of every interaction must occur. No breakdown of physics is implied.

Besides, their assumption that this must somehow cause time to suddenly end before their hypothesized "probability running out" scenario occurs smacks rather clearly of some sort of interventionist Editor belief - "It will never happen, because the Great Senior Professor will put a stop to it!" Pure philosophizing, bordering on religion, and having no place in a serious scientific paper.


I've already said that I think their reasoning is rather dubious.

If the Universe is infinite then everything that could have happened must already have happened...somewhere... way out of reach of our telescopes. I don't see in what it break the laws of physic... But still, on what are they their calculations for the number of 3.7 billions years till now.

Funny thing about the Jesus thing I remenber having read in Science&Vie that complex life will end in 800 millions years on Earth from too much CO2 evaporating from atmosphere.


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06 Oct 2010, 9:59 pm

DeaconBlues wrote:
Jookia wrote:
danandlouie wrote:
well, i asked jesus, and jesus said it will be approx.one billion years when the temp gets so hot that the oceans will start to boil away and all sorts of crap happens. if humans haven't vacated the old homestead by then, well they can just kiss their butts good-bye.


Jesus is dead, your prediction is void.

He got better....


I seriously hope you're being sarcastic.



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06 Oct 2010, 11:52 pm

By where you measure a Species from, humans are near over, and the survival of their rock making any long survival, well it has almost been finished off nine times, events that we would not live through.

The Universe will outlive me, the Earth may be a tie.



ruveyn
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07 Oct 2010, 4:56 am

Inventor wrote:
By where you measure a Species from, humans are near over, and the survival of their rock making any long survival, well it has almost been finished off nine times, events that we would not live through.

The Universe will outlive me, the Earth may be a tie.


Not even close. Our kind will be extinct and gone is less than ten million years.

Mammals do not have long shelf life on this planet. One celled organisms do. Long after we are extinct and gone there will be bacteria and viruses.

ruveyn



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07 Oct 2010, 5:00 am

The meek shall inherit the Earth, so to speak.



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10 Oct 2010, 3:26 pm

i liked that video--cheerful narration in Japanese & a nice cameo of the Acropolis--but in reality, the sky would be black with soot from early on, so it wouldn't be nearly this pretty...

as to the other, whatever happened to the Heat Death of the Universe? i don't see why it can't just go all cold & silent eventually; things that have zero probability will NOT happen given great stretches of futurity: that's bogus.

previous posters are correct in the Sun's eventual boiling away our oceans. however, unless evolution gets appreciably quicker on the uptake, life will not be able to adapt as fast as the environment changes anyway, & it will be a dead planet much sooner--especially with Man's help.


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12 Oct 2010, 2:53 am

I think these guys are string theorists:
Image
I'd say don't worry, it was only a couple of decades ago when the universe was going to end in a big crunch. who knows what the universe might do in the next 100 years! :D


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C1000
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22 Oct 2010, 5:42 pm

It's really getting awful cold the next up coming ten billion years!
Comparing to global warming..



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23 Oct 2010, 12:39 am

Friskeygirl wrote:
Interesting article on technology review on the end of the universe occurring with in the next 3.7 billion years

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25807/


i hope by then humanity [or whatever supercedes us] evolves to the point where physical space is superfluous.



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23 Oct 2010, 2:36 am

auntblabby wrote:
Friskeygirl wrote:
Interesting article on technology review on the end of the universe occurring with in the next 3.7 billion years

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25807/


i hope by then humanity [or whatever supercedes us] evolves to the point where physical space is superfluous.


BTW have you ever read about the Cathars? They believed our purpose here was to transcend the physical realm which is kind of New Age-y for 12th century France. Bit of a special interest. They were also very socially liberal too.



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23 Oct 2010, 2:47 am

Aimless wrote:
BTW have you ever read about the Cathars? They believed our purpose here was to transcend the physical realm which is kind of New Age-y for 12th century France. Bit of a special interest. They were also very socially liberal too.


well, i am glad for that. i would hate to think that our technological/sociological betters would be akin to rush.



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23 Oct 2010, 6:22 am

auntblabby wrote:
Aimless wrote:
BTW have you ever read about the Cathars? They believed our purpose here was to transcend the physical realm which is kind of New Age-y for 12th century France. Bit of a special interest. They were also very socially liberal too.


well, i am glad for that. i would hate to think that our technological/sociological betters would be akin to rush.


I'm missing something. Are you being a bit sardonic?



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23 Oct 2010, 1:39 pm

auntblabby wrote:
Aimless wrote:
BTW have you ever read about the Cathars? They believed our purpose here was to transcend the physical realm which is kind of New Age-y for 12th century France. Bit of a special interest. They were also very socially liberal too.


well, i am glad for that. i would hate to think that our technological/sociological betters would be akin to rush.

Why? Do you have something against Geddy Lee and Neil Peart? 8)


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