MaxE wrote:
Nowadays one is bombarded by new stories about how some species is at risk or some country or region's economy is in dire jeopardy due to climate change.
Although I'm certain most of these stories are true, I still can't help thinking there must be somebody or something that stands to benefit. Is it not reasonable to expect that some currently semi-arid region will become damp enough to support agriculture, or that another place will enjoy a longer and more productive growing season?
Certainly some species will take advantage of the change. The Ice Ages and even asteroid impacts have harmed many species but also allowed others to flourish. It should also be noted that many of these changes occurred quite suddenly.
As long as we're told it's inevitable it must be reasonable to try for a bright side.
Global warming would be quite beneficial to mankind. There would be some losers, but the benefit would be far greater.
We are currently two and a half million years into the current ice age and are now in an interglacial warm period known as the Holocene. Prior to the Holocene, we went through roughly one hundred thousand years of glaciers and much cooler weather. Unless we can leave this ice age, we will sooner or later enter another lengthy period of widespread glaciation and very cool weather.
When the next period of glaciation begins, the Earth is going to cool down much more than the relatively brief term known as the "Little Ice Age". The Little Ice Age resulted in a great deal of hunger around the world as the productive capability of the Earth declined. With the much greater cooling that will be found during the next period of glaciation, the productive capability of the Earth is going to be a small fraction of what it was during the Little Ice Age. Starvation and Death by Starvation will be very common. The real question is which will be greater -- death by starvation or death by warfare as mankind fights furiously over the dwindling resources of the Earth.
When thinking of the future of mankind, the best we can hope for is that the Earth continues to warm and we eventually leave this ice age behind us. That said, an ice age of two and a half million years would be a miraculously short ice age. The previously known ice ages lasted anywhere from around thirty or forty million years to three or four hundred million years. If those ice ages are anything to go by, we may easily have not made it through the first ten percent of the current ice age and maybe not even one percent of the current ice age.
It is no accident that mankind took its early steps toward civilization during the Holocene Climatic Optimum when the Earth was something like four or five degrees warmer than today. Finally, mankind was able to settle down and farm and form communities.
So what happens with Global Warming?
The Earth warms up some more. The melting of ice and raising of the sea levels will be relatively slow. The best figures I've seen for the Ice Cap over Greenland is for a full melt to take about twenty thousand years. That would make sea level rise about one foot a century. That is hardly a cause for concern.
We would be able to farm land and raise crops further north as well as raise more crops in the southern areas. For example, in central Mexico you can raise two wheat crops a year instead of just one. Warm the Earth and that capability will become available further north as well. Instead of the massive loss of productivity as the Earth enters yet another period of glaciation, we would see a massive increase in productivity and a far greater ability to feed the population of the world.
Rainfall? Don't forget that during the Holocene Climatic Optimum and temperatures of about four to five degrees warmer, the Sahara Desert was green, the Gobi Desert was a forest, and northern Mexico was much wetter.
If mankind is to have a bright future, we really need Global Warming. The threat to that bright futures is the next period of glaciation, not Global Warming.