MrMark wrote:
Fuzzy wrote:
A) China isnt(and doesnt seem to be) interested in anything but trade and peace. They might strong arm at times, but what country doesnt?
B) China has a looming labour shortage. Their one child policy has started a bottleneck in their labour force. They are going to fall out of the manufacturing business and become a net importer, much like the USA. This will enhance the need forpoint A.
Interesting analysis, however, I'm not sure about the labor shortage. Rural areas are still very impoverished. People are leaving farms to find work in cities. I think this trend may continue for a long time.
True, they have vast reserves of underemployed unskilled labour in the countryside, and more skilled labour than they have a use for (a situation that is not at all rare in the Third World). Plus, if their one-child policy looks like it's going to become counterproductive anytime soon, they can simply end it, or import labour from the desperately poor Indian countryside, for example.
Just because China doesn't practice Bush's policy of 'talk loudly and carry a big stick' doesn't mean they're not interested in hegemony - apart from Canada, Costa Rica and the Principality of Liechtenstein, there aren't many countries out there without imperial ambitions.
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