I get this feeling that the days of the cinema are growing shorter. Attendances are down for multiple reasons, primarily cost, other options (DVD etc), other entertainment formats (Internet, IPods etc), inconvenience and pop culture. I think whilst the big blockbuster films will continue to rise, the smaller films will become a straight to DVD breed. I still think they'll recoup their investment and still be made, but will do so in the DVD market. It seems to me today that youth culture is more about what movies suck then what movies are must sees. That's a sign of impending doom. When your primary audience have become overtly critical, you're only going to see them on mass when there is some preliminary expectation. I think then there'll be less surprise hits and more coldly calculated hits based on formula. That said though, I think you can expect to see the same sorts of movies making money and being box office kings. Perhaps one day the Best Picture winner, if it's some kind of quiet contemporary adult drama, might only be shown on DVD (if they change the elligibility rules of course). I expect that within two years, the DVD of a cinema film, will be out towards the wind-up of its cinema release. I expect within six years, the home release of a movie may even come out a few days after release, that was the promotion costs are lowered. I expect though that the blockbusters though will wait maybe three weeks. Then an internet release, download it directly. The flow on consequences with this are that the TV premiere movie concept is more or less dead. As TVs get bigger in homes and home movie technology cheaper and smaller, will the cinemas die out completely in time and if so, will there still be enough capital to make the diverse kinds of movies we want to see. Maybe in 20 years, unless there's some amazing gimmick or technology change, maybe cinemas will be a relic altogether.
How long before we see cinema's last death-rattle?
23 Nov 2005, 11:24 am
