The future of work

Post Reply New Topic

Read the old novels. A hundred years ago the term "hired man" was an expression of contempt.

Any man worth his salt would get his own farm or set up business as a shopkeeper or blacksmith or contractor or whatever.
He would stand on his own two feet on his own land and be his own boss.

Only in the 1950's did the idea of jobs or being a "company man" or "executive" become mainstream.

"You must have a college degree to get a good job"

Really? Do you think that getting a bachelor of science degree will earn you more money than if you owned your own pizza shop?

But anyway, where are the jobs?

As baby boomer I can remember when banks were filled with people sitting at desks updating accounts with adding machines. There were no computers.
I can remember when shops had many more serving staff.

Anyway, long story short. With computers and robots and outsourcing to third world countries, more work can be done by fewer people.

"They" tell us that the "answer" is "education".

Your grandfather probably left school after the eighth grade and got a job. He probably married his sweetheart when he was 20 and she was 18. Or he was 18 and she was 16.

By the time he was 22 he probably was paying off a home and had two children.

But you.... You have to go to school until you are 25 years old.

You (at the age of 23) have to ask your father for $50 and the use of the car so you can take your girlfriend to the movies.

Talk about degrading.

Then you "graduate" owing 50 or 60 thousand dollars.

Lots of luck.

So tell me, sucker.
Where are all these great jobs that will propel you into the upper middle class and make it all worthwhile?

They are gone and won't be coming back.

I beg to differ.

The clerks and their adding machines, the steno pool and their typewriters--they have laregely be mechanized out of existence, yes. But the entire structure of the economy has changed. Entire new industries have emerged. Broadcasting, telecommunications, information management--all of these sectors have been completely reimagined in the last 50 years.

My grandfather was a physician, but he did not earn his living from his practice, he earned it from owning the drug store. When my parents bought their first house in 1965, it cost $25,000. When I put a down payment on my house in July this year, it was three times that much. The simple fact is that economies grow and change, and as economies change, so too do the opportunities to contribute to them.

"Information" as an economic sector is now larger (in terms of sales) than professional, scientific and technical services. Wholesale trade has surpassed manufacturing, and (as of the 2007 economic census) is the largest economic sector in the US by sales.

So, where are all these great jobs? They are in the sectors of the economy that businesses and individuals are doing business in. The US has a $14 trillion economy--and it employs a lot of people, at all places in the economic spectrum. Not all of them are great jobs by any stretch of the imagination, but there is no doubt in my mind that absent a disability, any person with a university degree is only as unemployed as they choose to be.

Which is, of course, the crux of the issue in this forum--to what degree does a social disability impact on an otherwise employable person. That has little to do with the changing nature of the economy, and everything to do with the nature of the workplace.

excellent question.

my answer: the jobs should be replaced by government aid i.e. in the far future most basic things should be plain given.
I honestly do not understand how system "everyone should work" can be maintained when machines produce things for millions of people. basically you need 5-10 people to operate a system that can result in millions of products. if you employ 4 billion people how many things are going to be produced (and can poor old earth take that punch)?
yes, one can go into services but that is eventually going to be automtized too (though replacing hairdressers will take time). education will soon be run on software. i mean if one can watch best professors' lectures from mit (and for free) why would one get education from a local-not-so-good teacher. that in addition to software modules would provide education for all.
also, doctors, i mean most of them run on protocols (if-then-else) so just some interface is needed (take a picture, analyze... and advanced sensors).
i am aware this is the futuristic thing however all that i see runs in that direction and employment is already a problem but in the future it is going to be much worse unless thw whole society concept changes.

eventually everything should move into the virtual world anyway because that is the simplest solution with minimum energy.

Definitely, job is a thing developed with civilization.
When in the time of primitive society, you can get a girl maybe only 8 or 9 years to marry you and have bunch of kids. But you have to live in the simple house built with grass which are cold in the winter and hot in the summer.
And you also have to be alert of the animals that may attach you.