Why trump can’t win

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funeralxempire
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23 Feb 2024, 8:49 am

ezbzbfcg2 wrote:

magz wrote:

If you're interested in the Cold War terms, you should consider Sweden Third World. But it's history.
If you're interested in current geopolitics or human development index, update your maps.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm
https://worldpopulationreview.com/count ... -countries

"First world" meant USA-alignment, democracy and mostly capitalist economy.
"Second world" meant USSR-alignment, one-party communist regime and mostly planned economy.
Poland was second world. 35 years ago.

The Cold War never really ended, evidenced by referring to Poland as a "NATO East Flank" country. It's still the second-world. Sweden was never communist, is developed, is first-world.

These terms aren't hard to understand, despite a political desire to pretend they're not true. You're only proving my point. "NATO East Flank Country" essentially means second-world country that joined NATO when the Iron Curtain fell and is still at risk of falling under Russian imperialism yet again.

For actual developed first-world countries other than the USA, the POTUS has no bearing on their day-to-day lives.

First world = NATO
Second world = Warsaw Pact
Third world = Non-aligned

If you're going to throw those terms around you should familiarize yourself with their correct definitions.

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Aspinator
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23 Feb 2024, 8:55 am

This is why I don't think trump will win:

The US House of Representatives will go down in history as the "do nothing" House. This house is controlled by Trump (I know he is not in office now but he still dictates their policy decisions) Whether the republicans realize it or not; Mike Johnson and them are the biggest friends the Democratic party can hope for. I don't feel Americans can't tolerate another house session with them being in charge (The majority of Americans support aid to Ukraine. they're holding it up.)
and US people want a house that represents or serves the people of the US not the personal whims of out of date republicans.
Trump wants to instigate a national ban on abortion. This is not freedom of choice I don't feel people realize how much of a hot button issue this is. Look at what has just happened in Alabama.
The US doesn't want to be represented by a thug and a criminal. Also they want someone that has experience representing their interests in the middleeast; not Trumps son-in-law
Trump has made more serious age gaffs than Biden; Trump is just a few years younger than Biden.
Americans don't want to be represented by a criminal

America doesn't want to elect someone who supports dictators and has openly aspires his desire to "join the club". They want to elect someone like a Kennedy or an Obama; not someone who is an embarrassment to the rest of the world. (Trump has openly stated his non-committal to NATO)

I don't see how this is looking at the American political climate through "rose colored" glasses instead I see this as a realistic assessment

Last edited by Aspinator on 23 Feb 2024, 8:58 am, edited 1 time in total.

blitzkrieg
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23 Feb 2024, 8:56 am

Taking the position that the president of the world's most influential superpower has no bearing on the rest of the world or the lives of the inhabitants of other countries, seems naive.

magz
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23 Feb 2024, 9:03 am

If Cold World never ended, then all the democratic, developed NATO members are now First World.
If it ended, then the term is obsolete.
In both cases, Poland was historically Second World but it is not anymore.

If NATO East Flank has reasons to worry, then the whole NATO does. Totally including the historical First World.

Anyway, another example to counter your claim of non-influence: South Korea.

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ezbzbfcg2
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23 Feb 2024, 9:14 am

funeralxempire wrote:

First world = NATO
Second world = Warsaw Pact
Third world = Non-aligned

If you're going to throw those terms around you should familiarize yourself with their correct definitions.

Likewise.

The Warsaw Pact no longer exists. Poland is now part of NATO.

So, is Poland first-world because it's now part of NATO? Is it second-world, because it (was) Warsaw Pact. Have the terms evolved some since the collapse of the USSR and Iron Curtain. Can we really use them in the historic context you're throwing around, now that the Warsaw Pact is defunct and many of its former members are now in NATO?

But going back to my original premise, if you're in a developed first-world country (never part of any communist/iron curtain Warsaw Pact) the POTUS doesn't affect your day-to-day life.

magz
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23 Feb 2024, 9:29 am

I guess Finland is also No True Scotsman, having been neutral during the Cold War. And Germans from the west lands are totally safe while Germans from the east lands not necessarily.

It's interesting that you bring history here. Is a history of having been conquered by Russia significant here in any way?
Does Trump wish to respect historical "zones of influence" instead of actual treaties in power?
That worry would influence literally the whole world.

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funeralxempire
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23 Feb 2024, 9:29 am

ezbzbfcg2 wrote:

funeralxempire wrote:

First world = NATO
Second world = Warsaw Pact
Third world = Non-aligned

If you're going to throw those terms around you should familiarize yourself with their correct definitions.

If the terms are still relevant, Poland would be a first world nation.

It's also fair to make the case the terms are obsolete and shouldn't be used at all.

ezbzbfcg2
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23 Feb 2024, 9:34 am

magz wrote:

Absolutely.

You said it yourself, Putin is still living in Cold War times. Hence, the Cold War never really ended. In order for a war to end, both parties have to agree it's over. Poland's reaction to all this is the reality that it hasn't really ended and a fear of falling back under the Russian yolk (hence, why it's still a 2nd world country in these post-Iron Curtain times).

Finland's dominance under the Russian empire pre-communist USSR isn't really a factor. In modern geo-politics, Putin is still hell-bent on controlling "eastern flank" former Warsaw Pact countries and the Asiatic republics of the former USSR (this is the current meaning of 2nd world). Yes, everything from the time of the Soviet hegemony until now is still a factor. Citing Finland is grasping at straws.

ALSO: East Germany isn't really a factor as it's been reunified with the Western "free" Germany.

So, don't care about Finland or eastern Germany. Neither are 2nd world. Poland, absolutely.

You're still in a second world country.

...And this wasn't even the point I was trying to make.

magz
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23 Feb 2024, 9:42 am

Yeltsin did agree it was over.

PooTin is trying to rebuild the empire but it's an entirely new chapter in the long history of Muscovite imperialism - this one started in 2008.
I cite Finland because they are just as NATO East Flank as Poland - only much younger as a NATO member. They face exactly the same kinds of hybrid attacks from Russia right now. But somehow you seem to see them as different for not having been in Warsaw Pact?

I'm trying to grasp the idea why you see history so crucial here, clinging to obsolete terms, regardless of what's the reality now.

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ezbzbfcg2
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23 Feb 2024, 9:45 am

magz wrote:

Yeltsin did agree it was over.

PooTin is trying to rebuild the empire but it's an entirely new chapter that started in 2008.
I cite Finland because they are just as NATO East Flank as Poland - only much younger as a NATO member. They face exactly the same kinds of hybrid attacks from Russia right now. But somehow you seem to see them as different for not having been in Warsaw Pact?

I'm trying to grasp the idea why you see history so crucial here, clinging to obsolete terms, regardless of what's the reality now.

Because the historical reality is still the current reality. Why did Poland JUMP to join NATO, whereas Finland took its time? COLD WAR POLITICS. Poland knows it's under a much greater threat from Russia than Finland is or was.

Failing to forget history, or pretending it's all in the past, is what leads to these problems in the first place.

ALSO: Don't care what Yeltsin said. Don't care what any POTUS has said. Until all parties agree a war is over, it's not over. Putin has ruled Russia for 24 years now. Yeltsin's presidency was a blip. Yeltsin himself is now relegated to history (and you keep criticizing me for using historical terms, then dig up the obsolete Yeltsin).

This is the world we live in.

magz
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23 Feb 2024, 9:54 am

We don't forget history. But we also recognize it to be history. Failing to do this also leads to enormous trouble.

Finland literally jumped NATO after 2022. They do recognize it's a new chapter of History and clinging to Cold War mental maps could be fatal to them.

As I said - if the Cold War is not over, then Poland is now First World. If it is over, then the term is obsolete. It's possible we're facing Second Cold War now - but its maps are different than the previous one's.

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ASPartOfMe
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23 Feb 2024, 1:04 pm

Aspinator wrote:

Well we did elect that criminal/thug/conman and almost did it again. We are in unprecedented times. Both candidates are very unpopular which makes prognosticating more difficult. What Republicans are succeeding in doing with help from progressive self inflicted wounds is making Biden look bad enough that Trump is not hands down the greater of two evils. If you analyze Trump’s chances using traditional metrics Trump should have been eliminated early in the 2016 primaries. Using traditional metrics he does look much worse than eight years ago, yet here we are.

I am not saying Trump is a lock. The MAGA’s have a plethora of self inflicted wounds of their own. Sometimes I wonder if both sides are trying to lose. I am saying Trump’s re-election is a very realistic possibility.

Even if you are much less pessimistic then me the consequences of Trump winning are so potentially great complacency should not be an option but apparently is.

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goldfish21
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23 Feb 2024, 3:14 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:

Even if you are much less pessimistic then me the consequences of Trump winning are so potentially great complacency should not be an option but apparently is.

Who's being complacent? It's not as if it's election day and there's no lineup at the polls because people stayed home.

I bet there's record numbers of early mail in ballots and then record turnouts in person.

I do hope it rains, though. R voters tend to vote more in person vs. mail in and might just stay home because of the weather.

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ASPartOfMe
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23 Feb 2024, 8:27 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

ASPartOfMe wrote:

Even if you are much less pessimistic then me the consequences of Trump winning are so potentially great complacency should not be an option but apparently is.

Who is being complacent? Democrat strategists. I was watching this leading strategist on CNN and even with my Autistic people reading issues, this guy's cockyness came right through the TV. I felt like going on TV and taping the guy's mouth. Too much certainty leads to mistakes.

funeralxempire
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01 Mar 2024, 4:35 pm

GF: Why trump can’t win
Biden: Hold my beer, Jack.

goldfish21
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01 Mar 2024, 9:23 pm

I don't particularly love the idea of bolstering Israel's genocide in Gaza, but I do question whether that is a single issue that would lose enough votes to put trump in office.

Then again, could play it safe And do the right thing and tell Israel to get f****d. But for some reason the USA backs Israel as if they are incapable of doing any wrong.. which means the USA is making $$ from this arrangement somehow, as otherwise I don't see how it's in their best interest to support war crimes and such.

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