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techstepgenr8tion
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09 Sep 2011, 1:11 pm

I know we have a lot of space speculators, my attention to this kind of detail was mostly in my distant past. However, what's your take on our ability to prospect other planets' moons? From what I've seen discussed it sounds like the most practical way of building large freighter ships we'll find any time soon is to build a large space station with a nanofiber umbilicus/elevator to move parts from earth's surface upward, from there solar collection would probably power most if not all activities (and if it has to be the bottleneck - so be it). As of right now it sounds like we may be pretty close to having the materials and engineering to do it, the next step would be us having the right people with the right amount of money who'd see enough profitability to make the idea seem like its worthy of the investment.

I'm curious now just how long it will be before space gets industrialized. What do you all think? Will the pieces start moving into play by 2050? 2100? 2200? I'd figure it has to be likely to happen in the next 150 years. There's also realistic likelihood that by the time we have that technology a moon full of hydrocarbons might be of limited necessity to us anyway.

Anyway, what do you guys think on this? Great idea or is it likely to be a bust for at least another 300 or 400 years?


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Abgal64
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09 Sep 2011, 1:21 pm

I think we need fusion power first, by the time which we will be long past hydrocarbons, which would not burn in anaerobic Titan's atmosphere. Fission power is good but uranium is rare in the universe while isotopes of hydrogen are common. With current technology, we could colonize Mars, Venus and maybe Titan, but only if the latter has Uranium because Titan is too far away from the Sun for solar power to work. Thus, I suggest we put our efforts into fusion reactors which will not only power our travel to the outer Solar System and beyond but power our colonies as well.



1000Knives
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09 Sep 2011, 4:04 pm

I think in my lifetime (I got God willing 50+ years left) we will be too busy spending our money on war and giving people free stuff to ever launch anything other than communication satellites and stuff of that nature into space. I mean, our defense budget for one year is more money than NASA's used in it's entire existence. Also, Medicare costs the same every year as our entire defense force budget. So if we had simply the drive to go to space, we'd be there. I mean, the Soviets were (if my information is right) planning a mission to Mars in the 80s, but they got hung up in Afghanistan and their entire country collapsed because of it.

People, while they might think space travel is cool, usually don't give a rip about space. They'd much rather the government "create jobs" and give them stuff for free. Politicians find war much more fun and rewarding in the short term compared to space travel, which they might never see the fruits for in their lifetime. "The future, what's that ever done for me, anyway?"

I guess we could look to the private sector for space travel, but as of what I can see, it's not going anywhere particularly fast.

I also think the idea of going to space for resources is a bit absurd as of right now, even if, let's say, we more or less ran out of oil. We'd just use other stuff. I mean sure, there'd be wars over oil and whatnot, but we'd use things on Earth and adapt and survive. First natural gas, biofuels, but also, gasification of biomass. In Germany in WWII, numerous cars were converted to run off biomass, just wood and whatever, gasified without the presence of oxygen, then burnt in the car's ICE like anything else. Also, right now, it's probably theoretically possible to run everything off biofuel with genetically engineered algae or some other genetically engineered plant. We have the capability of it, just it's not safe. However, if things go bad, caution will be thrown to the wind, unsafe things will be labeled safe, and we'll have our biofuel, even if it causes consequences to the enviroment and becomes an invasive species and we all die of starvation.

The big problem with space is it takes too much time for results to occur. Nobody will really see what they want happening in their lifetime, so they're unwilling to do it. It is I guess a good ultimate contingency plan, but it simply takes too much time and effort for people to want it, as the results aren't going to happen now.

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Abgal64
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09 Sep 2011, 5:55 pm

I agree with 1000Knives on the lack of motivation being key in space exploration's slow development; the Chinese or the EU could, however, get past the issues that the USA has. The EU especially is on a very sustainable track to space exploration given its member states' generally low military budget compared to the economic might of its member states. And China is about to launch Tiangong 1, Heavenly Palace 1, its first space station without outside help.

I disagree about the biofuels issue; what is the risk? GMO crops are specifically bred to grow in such a way that is not evolutionary competitive: Huge maize kernels waste energy on producing more seed that could be spent on producing more seeds, thus giving GM maize an evolutionary disadvantage, for example.



ruveyn
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09 Sep 2011, 5:56 pm

Abgal64 wrote:
I think we need fusion power first, by the time which we will be long past hydrocarbons, which would not burn in anaerobic Titan's atmosphere. Fission power is good but uranium is rare in the universe while isotopes of hydrogen are common. With current technology, we could colonize Mars, Venus and maybe Titan, but only if the latter has Uranium because Titan is too far away from the Sun for solar power to work. Thus, I suggest we put our efforts into fusion reactors which will not only power our travel to the outer Solar System and beyond but power our colonies as well.


Don't hold your breath until we get practical controlled fusion. You will turn blue and faint.

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iamnotaparakeet
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09 Sep 2011, 6:16 pm

As far as moons go, Titan has rather high gravity so it would not be very cost effective to harvest resources from initially. Low mass asteroids, the moon, and the lower mass moons of Jupiter would be more profitable before we can establish bases around Saturn.



techstepgenr8tion
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09 Sep 2011, 7:10 pm

1000Knives wrote:
I think in my lifetime (I got God willing 50+ years left) we will be too busy spending our money on war and giving people free stuff to ever launch anything other than communication satellites and stuff of that nature into space.

I think I generally agree, in the sense that corporations will be glad to do it once tech hits a threshold where it becomes profitable. Until then I doubt there will be much in the way of governmental movement.

1000Knives wrote:
People, while they might think space travel is cool, usually don't give a rip about space. They'd much rather the government "create jobs" and give them stuff for free. Politicians find war much more fun and rewarding in the short term compared to space travel, which they might never see the fruits for in their lifetime. "The future, what's that ever done for me, anyway?"

$$ - when the time is right.

1000Knives wrote:
The big problem with space is it takes too much time for results to occur. Nobody will really see what they want happening in their lifetime, so they're unwilling to do it. It is I guess a good ultimate contingency plan, but it simply takes too much time and effort for people to want it, as the results aren't going to happen now.

My guess - it'll be a developing industry by 2150.


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91
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09 Sep 2011, 10:50 pm

I don't really know much about this area... but the asteroid belt seems to be so full of resources that scarcity would not be much of a problem if it could be reliably accessed and harvested.


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09 Sep 2011, 11:32 pm

91 wrote:
I don't really know much about this area... but the asteroid belt seems to be so full of resources that scarcity would not be much of a problem if it could be reliably accessed and harvested.


It's about the cost of acquisition.

We're only missing two things if we want to mine asteroids

1: Unlimited energy
2: A propulsion system to take advantage of it

Privatizing space travel will make it cheaper, but not cheaper than the russian space program.

The sort of wrench NASA sends into space costs thousands of dollars. They are probably the best wrenches ever made.

The russians just use Craftsman.



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10 Sep 2011, 3:12 am

blauSamstag wrote:
91 wrote:
I don't really know much about this area... but the asteroid belt seems to be so full of resources that scarcity would not be much of a problem if it could be reliably accessed and harvested.


It's about the cost of acquisition.

We're only missing two things if we want to mine asteroids

1: Unlimited energy
2: A propulsion system to take advantage of it

Privatizing space travel will make it cheaper, but not cheaper than the russian space program.

The sort of wrench NASA sends into space costs thousands of dollars. They are probably the best wrenches ever made.

The russians just use Craftsman.


There's a rather famous story of NASA spending like a million dollars or more to develop a pen to write in space. The Russians just used pencils...



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10 Sep 2011, 3:22 am

Abgal64 wrote:
I agree with 1000Knives on the lack of motivation being key in space exploration's slow development; the Chinese or the EU could, however, get past the issues that the USA has. The EU especially is on a very sustainable track to space exploration given its member states' generally low military budget compared to the economic might of its member states. And China is about to launch Tiangong 1, Heavenly Palace 1, its first space station without outside help.

I disagree about the biofuels issue; what is the risk? GMO crops are specifically bred to grow in such a way that is not evolutionary competitive: Huge maize kernels waste energy on producing more seed that could be spent on producing more seeds, thus giving GM maize an evolutionary disadvantage, for example.


I don't know how exactly that'd work out for GMOed algea really. I don't think it'd be all too great if GMOed algea meant specifically to reproduce very fast (if my understanding is correct) for the most yield got into the water supply. That was just an example, just my point was, unsafe things, or unenviromentally friendly things, they'd just tell the public they are safe and enviromentally friendly, and just do them.

And yes, unless we were to develop magical Tesla ionization space crafts or something like that, it'd take a lot of resources to mine something. IE, Nasla's satellite launch cost alone is $10,000 a pound, you know any elements worth 10K a pound? I'm sure there's some (maybe helium 3?), but, it's definitely not going to be for the nickel and iron on asteroids. Besides, it's not like we're in some crisis of running out of metal, anyway.



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10 Sep 2011, 3:44 am

1000Knives wrote:

And yes, unless we were to develop magical Tesla ionization space crafts or something like that, it'd take a lot of resources to mine something. IE, Nasla's satellite launch cost alone is $10,000 a pound, you know any elements worth 10K a pound? I'm sure there's some (maybe helium 3?), but, it's definitely not going to be for the nickel and iron on asteroids. Besides, it's not like we're in some crisis of running out of metal, anyway.


An ion drive space craft was launched and did reach a comet. It schlepped about 200 points of technology. Please do not be upset if I am a bit underwhelmed. We shall have to do better than that.

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14 Sep 2011, 1:27 pm

I'm feeling lazy and don't feel like re-writing my views on space industrialization so I'm going to quote myself from not too long ago:

Vigilans wrote:
Well there is the Shackleton Energy Company that wants to start robotic surface ice mining on the Moon with operations start date in 2015. This doesn't involve any human travel to the Moon. It will likely involve tech proven on Mars albeit probably a bit cheaper. The ice in Shackleton crater is believed to be simply sitting there so all it involves is using lasers to cut/burn out 'cubes' of ice and then using a transponder road, bring it back to a rocket fuel factory (also automated). Further chemical launches would be used to get the rocket fuel into space and then shipped to orbital gas stations. Later mass drivers might be used. Chances are they will be using SpaceX for launch and Bigelow for modules. Stone Aerospace itself is a pioneer in deep sea ROV tech so I think they are capable of putting together the required robotics for a lunar operation (where extreme pressure becomes a non-issue)

That's all fine and dandy though but there has to be profit to encourage people to actually use Stone/SEC's facilities. The space tourist industry will certainly help provide funding, and there is already one promotion I am aware of: Win a trip to space! :O :O

VASIMIR being put up into space in 2014 will probably change things. Plans are for it to be mounted on the ISS for station keeping and space testing. Using this kind of engine could make longer distance trips much more feasible. If that is the case it would be more realistic to be able to get to resource-rich asteroid, for example. At the current time it isn't really profitable to spend all the time getting there and trying to teleoperate robotic mining vehicles with a large time delay. But if you can send say 10 people there in a few weeks to stay there in shifts of several months and operate the robots without time delay and with direct oversight it becomes more realistic. And asteroid mining is really the key to space infrastructure. It is simply too expensive to send the material required for, say, a space elevator, into space from Earth.

Better would be to send a small crew on a spacecraft using combined VASIMIR/Solar sails (not unlike the steam/sail hybrids of the early modern period) to a proper material candidate such as a Vestoid-class asteroid. Once there they commence mining to construct mass drivers to propel the asteroid into a very high Earth orbit. For the next few decades semi-automated miners would build 60,000 km of carbon-nanotube wound cable from the asteroid itself, down towards the Earth's surface, where it would 'dock' somewhere in the equatorial regions. Thus Earth would have it's first space elevator and greater amounts of people would be able to go into space cheaply. The remaining asteroid material would probably be used as the counterweight for the elevator

Additionally space plane technology seems to be getting more advanced. Before a cable ever becomes a reality it might be possible that more advanced space planes will be responsible for taking people into LEO where they will board proper space craft.

Asteroids really are the key to space infrastructure. Having excellent semi-autonomous and autonomous robotic mining/manufacturing technology, more advanced carbon nanotube/fullerene technology, VASIMIR-type engines or better, solar sails, and probably space based nuclear-electric power, will also be necessary, just to be able to get out to asteroids. Space planes as well will play an important part. The hollowed out shells of the asteroids could be put into Lagrange points where they could be spun to generate artificial gravity of whatever g you desire


Since that time I've also been reading into laser propulsion which I think will also be a game changer. Not having to carry ANY fuel at all (other than for small pitch/yaw corrections, which could follow the Russian example and be miniature ion engines thus require little weight for the fuel which is usually xenon gas) I suppose, the energy is quite literally shot into the spacecraft using lasers. This method of propulsion is also suggested for powering the space elevator "climber". It might be that fusion won't be necessary for the time being, though when it does become feasible it will certainly be helpful

As to Titan, I don't know if it would be the "next Middle-East" as it lacks crazy religious fundamentalists and oppressive heat (;) ) but the extraction of its vast lakes of ethane could be very profitable. There is also a growing belief that even beneath its liquid ethane/methane sculpted surface is a vast ocean of H2O. The Moons around Saturn are more likely to be exploited before the moons of Jupiter simply due to the fact that Saturn has considerably less radiation everywhere around it, despite their advanced distance in comparison


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ruveyn
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14 Sep 2011, 1:52 pm

1000Knives wrote:

There's a rather famous story of NASA spending like a million dollars or more to develop a pen to write in space. The Russians just used pencils...


graphite flakes and powder floating around in zero g could do a number on the electronics.

A graphite pencil in zero g is a bad idea.

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14 Sep 2011, 1:55 pm

With nuclear pulse propulsion fusion the harnessing of fusion energy is a reality with today's technology.
Black hole power is also practical.



ruveyn
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14 Sep 2011, 1:57 pm

androbot2084 wrote:
With nuclear pulse propulsion fusion the harnessing of fusion energy is a reality with today's technology.
Black hole power is also practical.


The hell it is. And forget controlled fusion. Controlled fusion was 30 in the future in 1960 and it is still 30 years in the future. A hundred years from now it will be 30 years in the future. The only nuclear option we have right now is fission.

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