Iran - Just A Conduit for Russia to Dominate Middle East?

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ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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18 Jul 2015, 9:59 am

Some say the same thing about the US and Israel. Does Russia use Iran to gain influence and power in the area by means of The Unseen Hand?



Jacoby
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18 Jul 2015, 11:51 am

Iran and Russia are allies of convenience, we pushed them into each other's arms. The Soviets supported the secular socialist Saddam over theocratic Iran who declared Islam incompatible with communism, might seem like a big deal to us but it is in Iran. Russia has been working hard in the last year to repair its relations with Sunni Muslim nations like Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. As relations with the US become more chilled it is thawing with Russia's offer to build nuclear reactors is being taken up. The Saudis aren't dumb, they see closer relations with Russia as a round about way of containing Iran and Syria. Turkey no longer has any illusions about a future in Europe as evidence by the consolidation of power by Erdogan, Egypt hasn't had the same relationship with the US militarily since their revolution and are need going to Russians instead of us. They're all starting to rethink their alliance with the United States, you can expect the Saudis to start throwing their weight around way more independent of the US as we can already see in Yemen. Russia is just manipulating the situation, US foreign policy has been a failure and they're going to reap the benefits.

I think the US needs to repair its relations with Russia, it would be the smartest thing we can do if we're serious about avoiding war with Iran and stopping ISIS.



naturalplastic
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18 Jul 2015, 12:46 pm

What exactly are you asking?

Is Russia doing the same thing that the US does which is: trying to advance its interests in a region by making by making friends, and influencing people?

Of course it is. And why not? What do you expect Russia to do?

Its neither surprising, nor is it "unseen".

The Iranian regime is a free agent. Conceivably they could switch to cooperating with the US.

Shortly after 9-11 Iran and the US almost became official allies against Al Queda. And right now the two nations are kinda unwitting allies against ISIS.

Iran's current "adventurism" (backing Assad, and Hezbollah) is Teheran's own idea. Putin isn't forcing them to do it. If that's what you mean. But Teheran's and Moscow's interests do happen to coincide in backing Assad, and in other things. So for now they are allies.

Local politics just doesn't stay local. It would be nice if always did stay local.

In the 1930's a civil war broke out in Spain. Outside nations began to aid the opposing sides, which in turn caused the outside nations to start lining up into alliances with each other: the Western democracies, and communist Russia on one side; and Nazi Germany, and fascist Italy on the other (setting the stage for the coming world war).

Similarly: a civil war broke out in Syria two years ago: and now Israel, the Saudies, NATO, and the USA, are forming one camp. And Iran, Russia, and China, the other. Not saying that its gonna cause a world war. Just sayin' the local chess game became part of the global chess game. As often happens.

A while back a local insurgency broke out against British rule in a group of colonies. And the British almost crushed the rebels, but the rebels got massive aid from Britain's rival powers -especially France, and finally won- and the new USA appeared. In a sense the USA is the product of France trying to stick it to Britain.



ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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18 Jul 2015, 1:04 pm

Well it is unseen because they do it in ways that are not obvious. They don't invade Iran, and take it over, trying to undermine the Iranian culture, replacing it with a Russian one and then use it as a satellite, attempting to decide the fates of other Islamic countries in the immediate area.

Instead, they sell them weapons and encourage activities which destabilize.

Do you realize how involved the US was in Iraq when Saddam gained control of that country? Check out April Glaspie. Look at how the US meddled in Iran with Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Iran was becoming somewhat westernized and that particular Shah liked America. It causes a population to become nervous when they see leaders from two vastly different countries cozying up and then the revolution, which Pahlavi fled to the US where we kept him while Iran took Americans hostage in the capitol, Tehran.

This is why subtlety is required. An entire region can become unstable due to one loose cannon. Now we have Iran preparing the fight ISIS but what about Iranian sponsored terrorism?

You have a war between Iranian sponsored Shias against ISIS in Syria, another against ISIS in Iraq. It is a continuation of the Iraqi/Iranian war.



Jacoby
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18 Jul 2015, 1:37 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Well it is unseen because they do it in ways that are not obvious. They don't invade Iran, and take it over, trying to undermine the Iranian culture, replacing it with a Russian one and then use it as a satellite, attempting to decide the fates of other Islamic countries in the immediate area.

Instead, they sell them weapons and encourage activities which destabilize.

Do you realize how involved the US was in Iraq when Saddam gained control of that country? Check out April Glaspie. Look at how the US meddled in Iran with Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Iran was becoming somewhat westernized and that particular Shah liked America. It causes a population to become nervous when they see leaders from two vastly different countries cozying up and then the revolution, which Pahlavi fled to the US where we kept him while Iran took Americans hostage in the capitol, Tehran.

This is why subtlety is required. An entire region can become unstable due to one loose cannon. Now we have Iran preparing the fight ISIS but what about Iranian sponsored terrorism?

You have a war between Iranian sponsored Shias against ISIS in Syria, another against ISIS in Iraq. It is a continuation of the Iraqi/Iranian war.


What Iranian sponsored terrorism? There really isn't a Shia equivalent to international Islamic terrorist groups like ISIS or Al Qaeda, the Shia as a whole seem a lot more secular and western compared to Arab Sunnis but that's just been my observation from afar. Shiite militants such Hezbollah and the Houthis seem to have more nationalist and geopolitical intentions than religious ones. It is the Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam that the vast majority of world's terrorists flow from which Saudi Arabia has worked diligently to spread world round. The Saudis are the real enemies.



naturalplastic
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18 Jul 2015, 2:29 pm

Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



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18 Jul 2015, 3:26 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



Notice I typed "Unseen Hand" in my OP? Russia and America have learned lessons from the Cold War.



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18 Jul 2015, 3:29 pm

Jacoby wrote:
What Iranian sponsored terrorism? There really isn't a Shia equivalent to international Islamic terrorist groups like ISIS or Al Qaeda, the Shia as a whole seem a lot more secular and western compared to Arab Sunnis but that's just been my observation from afar. Shiite militants such Hezbollah and the Houthis seem to have more nationalist and geopolitical intentions than religious ones. It is the Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam that the vast majority of world's terrorists flow from which Saudi Arabia has worked diligently to spread world round. The Saudis are the real enemies.

Hezbollah is often cited as a terrorist organization. What would happen between Saudi Arabia and Iran if Iran were given the upper hand by Russia and America? The Saudis are saying, "nuclear arms race."



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18 Jul 2015, 3:35 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



Notice I typed "Unseen Hand" in my OP? Russia and America have learned lessons from the Cold War.


Notice that I already addressed that "unseen hand" nonsense in my previous post?

There is nothing "unseen". Iran is a local heavy weight. And Russia is global heavyweight, and its obvious that they've become allies recently. Nothing "unseen" about it. Russia gains by aiding Iran.

My point is that Iran is its own sponser. Its not a puppet of Russia in the way it WAS a puppet of the USA under the Shah.



Last edited by naturalplastic on 18 Jul 2015, 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo
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18 Jul 2015, 3:39 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



Notice I typed "Unseen Hand" in my OP? Russia and America have learned lessons from the Cold War.


Notice that I already addressed that "unseen hand" nonsense in my previous post? There is nothing "unseen". Iran is a local heavy weight. And Russia is global heavyweight, and its obvious that they've become allies recently. Nothing "unseen" about it.

My point is that Iran is its own sponser. Its not a puppet of Russia in the way it WAS a puppet of the USA under the Shah.



Russia is willing to sell weapons to Iran.



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18 Jul 2015, 3:56 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
Jacoby wrote:
What Iranian sponsored terrorism? There really isn't a Shia equivalent to international Islamic terrorist groups like ISIS or Al Qaeda, the Shia as a whole seem a lot more secular and western compared to Arab Sunnis but that's just been my observation from afar. Shiite militants such Hezbollah and the Houthis seem to have more nationalist and geopolitical intentions than religious ones. It is the Wahhabi branch of Sunni Islam that the vast majority of world's terrorists flow from which Saudi Arabia has worked diligently to spread world round. The Saudis are the real enemies.

Hezbollah is often cited as a terrorist organization. What would happen between Saudi Arabia and Iran if Iran were given the upper hand by Russia and America? The Saudis are saying, "nuclear arms race."


The Saudi state will only exist as long as it can stay together, that's in part what scares the hell out of the Saudis about Iran since they have a large Shia population concentrated near the Persian Gulf where most of the oil is. The Saudis after attempting economic warfare against Russia(why oil/gas prices were so cheap last year) changed their tune and are now both are seeking a policy ofI engagement with each other as it serves both of their interests.

Hezbollah isn't really terrorist organization at least not in the way ISIS or al-Qaeda, their aspirations are nationalist and regional in nature. It's a legitimate political party in Lebanon and is well represented in government where it cooperates with both Christian and Sunni parties, they have an organized military wing as well as the legitimate political one. Hezbollah was formed to as a resistance movement against Israel which had invaded Lebanon in 1982 and occupied the south of the country for the next 18 years.



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18 Jul 2015, 3:57 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



Notice I typed "Unseen Hand" in my OP? Russia and America have learned lessons from the Cold War.


Notice that I already addressed that "unseen hand" nonsense in my previous post? There is nothing "unseen". Iran is a local heavy weight. And Russia is global heavyweight, and its obvious that they've become allies recently. Nothing "unseen" about it.

My point is that Iran is its own sponser. Its not a puppet of Russia in the way it WAS a puppet of the USA under the Shah.



Russia is willing to sell weapons to Iran.


Russia is willing to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia as well as Egypt and Turkey



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18 Jul 2015, 4:03 pm

Russia and Iran aren't as close as you think, Assad's Syria is closer to the Russians, and there was a military presence there.

Russians and the Iranian have had runs in over the construction of a nuclear power station. It is a love/hate relationship.



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18 Jul 2015, 4:06 pm

ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
ooOoOoOAnaOoOoOoo wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
Your post is based upon a false analogy. The relationship between Moscow and Teheran today is nothing like the relationship between the US and Teheran in the original Cold War era.

The Shah "liked America" because we helped keep him in power. In fact he was exiled before, in 1953, and we reinstated him after the CIA engineered a coup to overthrow the democratically elected Iranian prime minister whom we and the Shah didn't like. We put the Shah back on the thrown, and helped keep him propped up for the next several decades.

Putin did not install the Shiite theocracy in Iran in 1979.



Notice I typed "Unseen Hand" in my OP? Russia and America have learned lessons from the Cold War.


Notice that I already addressed that "unseen hand" nonsense in my previous post? There is nothing "unseen". Iran is a local heavy weight. And Russia is global heavyweight, and its obvious that they've become allies recently. Nothing "unseen" about it.

My point is that Iran is its own sponser. Its not a puppet of Russia in the way it WAS a puppet of the USA under the Shah.



Russia is willing to sell weapons to Iran.


Like I said -they act as allies at the moment.



Not sure what your point is. If all that you're saying is "the cold war is kind of come back, and Russia is allied to Iran to gain influence in the middle east then I agree. But that's just kinda stating the obvious. And if by "unseen hand" you mean Russia is just less high profile when it meddles in the ME than the US then I agree with that.



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18 Jul 2015, 4:21 pm

Russia supported Saddam against the Iranians in the 80s, there is no love lost between them. It's a strategic partnership.

Syria has a special military importance to Russia as they have a naval base(their only one on Mediterranean Sea) in Tartus which is in the Alawite homeland that Assad hails from, also they're the main military supplier of Syria and have billions of dollar in weapons contracts.

More cynically, Russia benefits from these wars as it has drawn insurgents out of Caucasus



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18 Jul 2015, 4:34 pm

Jacoby wrote:
More cynically, Russia benefits from these wars as it has drawn insurgents out of Caucasus


Many of the Arab states hoped Afghanistan 1 would do just that, they even let their extremest out of prison hoping they would die in Afghanistan.

What actually happened is it strengthened alliances between these groups (despite the newly founded Al-Qaeda doing very little actual fighting with the Mujaheddin against the Russians), then they went back to their countries and you know the rest.

In other word that view is short term at best and very naive. If anything it make thing potential more volatile. Caucasus and Balkans are on ISIS's hit list.