Technological Unemployment: The Real Reason This Elephant Ch

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techstepgenr8tion
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26 Mar 2017, 11:06 am

Some disagreements with UBI from Stefan Molyneux:


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techstepgenr8tion
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26 Mar 2017, 11:58 am

marshall wrote:
I think there is a deeper connection to the problem of technological unemployment. It's actually more general than just the idea of robots replacing jobs. At the root is the fact that firms will always seek to increase profit by cutting costs. I a global sense, when everyone cuts costs, people are ultimately paid less. Old neoclassical theories thought this wasn't a problem because prices would be forced to fall and everything would balance out. The truth is in real economies, price deflation always seems to be coupled with unemployment.


Are you thinking then that the slashing of wages is slashing consumer spending and in turn decreasing the supply of things needed? If so I'd agree that this wouldn't be a problem, if locally the case, for a bulk exporter but it sounds like we've lost a lot of that protection.

If that's the case maybe there's something to the idea of nationalist populist movements rising and gaining traction in countries who tend to be bulk-importers because they're left worse off in the neoliberal global trade game.


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27 Mar 2017, 2:01 am

you're never too uneducated to work for the government,
and surveillance don't want a brain at the workplace neither, some extra weight's ok though



marshall
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28 Mar 2017, 4:05 am

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
marshall wrote:
I think there is a deeper connection to the problem of technological unemployment. It's actually more general than just the idea of robots replacing jobs. At the root is the fact that firms will always seek to increase profit by cutting costs. I a global sense, when everyone cuts costs, people are ultimately paid less. Old neoclassical theories thought this wasn't a problem because prices would be forced to fall and everything would balance out. The truth is in real economies, price deflation always seems to be coupled with unemployment.


Are you thinking then that the slashing of wages is slashing consumer spending and in turn decreasing the supply of things needed? If so I'd agree that this wouldn't be a problem, if locally the case, for a bulk exporter but it sounds like we've lost a lot of that protection.

If that's the case maybe there's something to the idea of nationalist populist movements rising and gaining traction in countries who tend to be bulk-importers because they're left worse off in the neoliberal global trade game.

I was talking in the sense of a closed economy. Trade introduces a whole other layer of complexity.



jrjones9933
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28 Mar 2017, 11:05 am

It seems like a crucial layer of complexity, considering how many massive economic changes have resulted from plummeting costs of international trade.

Gains from trade are sufficient to raise all boats. The math is simple and clear. To me, the key question here is: why don't they?


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techstepgenr8tion
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28 Mar 2017, 3:52 pm

jrjones9933 wrote:
Gains from trade are sufficient to raise all boats. The math is simple and clear. To me, the key question here is: why don't they?

Not all things are effected equally and, unfortunately, it's a lot of trinkets at Walmart that are cheaper, not necessarily housing, basic staples, or any of that. As wages go down and the basics stay the same, add healthcare coverage skyrocketing, it is getting a little worse right now rather than better. It's part of why I almost hope that a solution on healthcare that's as ungovernable as Bitcoin - Washington DC is where ideas go for slaughter.


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28 Mar 2017, 4:11 pm

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
Some disagreements with UBI from Stefan Molyneux:

Why would you take advice from an AnCap on finances? seems about as fruitful as trying to set icecubes on fire.



techstepgenr8tion
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28 Mar 2017, 4:53 pm

Lol, is that what Stefan is? That's a bizarre outlook for him to have and admittedly I haven't listened to him a whole lot so if he's said anything in favor of AnCap I haven't peeled back that layer.

I guess I just posted that in the interest of trying to be at least somewhat balanced and not spending the whole thread one-sidedly promoting UBI. He did give an important critique about sustainability, ie. when you multiply $12K by a couple hundred million or more you end up in a fair amount of trouble. To that end I don't know what we can do aside from just trying to drive down the prices of basic living costs such as housing, food, water, utilities, etc. for the lowest earners to see if we can get to a place where even part-time minimum wage jobs wouldn't have people out on the street or needing most of what keeps them off of the street to come out of the government's pocket.

I think that last point is one of the biggest critiques I'd give our current economy - ie. the cost of basic entry, the ability to pay all of your bills, is something a lot of people just can't do and there aren't any scale-down options available to offer that possibility.


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28 Mar 2017, 5:21 pm

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
Lol, is that what Stefan is? That's a bizarre outlook for him to have and admittedly I haven't listened to him a whole lot so if he's said anything in favor of AnCap I haven't peeled back that layer.
Wikipedia says as much, and in his book 'Practical Anarchy: The Freedom of the Future(link) he talks about how it's not needed to get rid of capitalist infrastructure under the 'anarchist' system he's proposing, so yah, he's trying to find the mythological middleground between anarchy and pure cap.



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29 Mar 2017, 10:40 am

I don't think its reasonable to treat a government budget like a household budget. If a sovereign nation can print its own money, then the purpose of taxation is to control inflation. The problem is coming up with a flexible taxation system that can be enforced and can be kept more safe from blatant abuse by special interests. I think in the future it might be possible to replace income tax with a progressive form of sales tax. The rate goes up the more you spend in a given time period. To do the calculations, all transactions will have to take place electronically rather than using physical currency.



techstepgenr8tion
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29 Mar 2017, 4:07 pm

That clearly has its limits though and you can only go over-budget here and there, not as a permanent matter of course. Otherwise permanent deficit spending isn't even Keynesianism, it's it's own sort of economic religion.


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30 Mar 2017, 6:38 am

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
That clearly has its limits though and you can only go over-budget here and there, not as a permanent matter of course. Otherwise permanent deficit spending isn't even Keynesianism, it's it's own sort of economic religion.

If there is constant GDP growth, it is possible for the government to spend more than it taxes without devaluing the currency. If the GDP is flat, spending will have to be matched with tax revenue.