Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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magz
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20 May 2022, 7:44 am

The economic crisis is looming anyway, worldwide.

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SkinnedWolf
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20 May 2022, 7:47 am

We know what happened after the Great Depression.

I can only think that China will avoid being that direct trigger, but that doesn't mean it won't start with conflicts elsewhere.

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kraftiekortie
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20 May 2022, 7:52 am

I like it better that China is a relatively "advanced" country now. I'd rather see this, than see a bunch of people starving. I wish this was the case in Africa. I wish we didn't have starvation that could very well be preventable if only certain governments would allow the aid to reach the people who actually need the aid.

Their gross GDP might become higher than the US's in a few years----but it will take a long time for it to match the US's per capita income.

I don't feel threatened by China economically. I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

kraftiekortie
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20 May 2022, 8:05 am

Kyiv will probably recover sooner than a place like Mariupol. I am under the impression that the infrastructure of Kyiv wasn't damaged all that much.

magz
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20 May 2022, 8:08 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

Kyiv will probably recover sooner than a place like Mariupol. I am under the impression that the infrastructure of Kyiv wasn't damaged all that much.

Much of Kyiv is intact.
It's much worse with some suburbs, where the Russian army stationed. Borodyanka is particularily damaged, I believe.
They are already talking about need for building materials.

Mariupol, Volonvakha, Severodonyetsk, Rubizhne... - these are severily devastated.

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SkinnedWolf
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20 May 2022, 8:13 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

China knows this.

Now China and Russia have some delicate cooperative relations due to common threats, but China will never admit to an alliance.
And Russia cannot be trusted. It also threatens China if the environment changes slightly.

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Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.

You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.

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magz
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20 May 2022, 8:25 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:

And Russia cannot be trusted.

Да.
You're realistic so you know it.

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Pepe
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21 May 2022, 12:34 am

magz wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

Pepe wrote:

I expect this to be the case.
The same greed fuelled China's growth.

Or is a poor third world China more your expectation?
China's globalization is inseparable from the support of the United States from the very beginning. It is only in less than a decade that economic structural contradictions have begun to emerge that have led China and the United States to change from cooperation to conflict.

But both are still too interdependent to make this conflict open.
I have some trust in Chinese pragmatism, at least for now. They know starting a war means giant losses.
Russian war is making this argument even more reassuring.

China is watching what is happening to Russia very closely.
I am pleased that China hasn't inflamed the situation in Ukraine.
Hopefully, it will make them pause to reflect on the consequences of aggression toward Taiwan.

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21 May 2022, 12:39 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

China knows this.

Now China and Russia have some delicate cooperative relations due to common threats, but China will never admit to an alliance.
And Russia cannot be trusted. It also threatens China if the environment changes slightly.

I doubt I'm certain Russia wouldn't be a military threat to China.
It can't even handle Ukraine.

Pepe
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21 May 2022, 12:40 am

magz wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

And Russia cannot be trusted.

Да.
You're realistic so you know it.

Virtually every non-Russian would know this.

magz
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21 May 2022, 1:15 am

Pepe wrote:

magz wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

And Russia cannot be trusted.

Да.
You're realistic so you know it.

Virtually every non-Russian would know this.

Not really - Germany is only now realizing why raplacing their coal power plants with ones running on (Russian) natural gas was a very bad idea.

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magz
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21 May 2022, 1:17 am

Pepe wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

I doubt I'm certain Russia wouldn't be a military threat to China.
It can't even handle Ukraine.

Russia did not manage to achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine but they managed to turn a lot of this country into ruin.
I'm certain pragmatic Chinese leaders take this into account.

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Pepe
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21 May 2022, 1:34 am

magz wrote:

Pepe wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

I doubt I'm certain Russia wouldn't be a military threat to China.
It can't even handle Ukraine.

Russia did not manage to achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine but they managed to turn a lot of this country into ruin.
I'm certain pragmatic Chinese leaders take this into account.

Russia wouldn't attack China because it is no match for China.
And China and Russia have aided each other in overcoming sanctions on wheat, and presumably other products.
There is no rational reason for Russia to attack.

SkinnedWolf
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21 May 2022, 1:36 am

magz wrote:

Pepe wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

I doubt I'm certain Russia wouldn't be a military threat to China.
It can't even handle Ukraine.

Russia did not manage to achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine but they managed to turn a lot of this country into ruin.
I'm certain pragmatic Chinese leaders take this into account.

For the current world economy, Taiwan (both Taiwan itself and related wars) is far more important than Ukraine. This means that a large number of countries will be directly involved.

Moreover, an armed attack on Taiwan will inevitably involve amphibious operations, which the PLA has never had the experience of. Even the last war was the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979, 43 years from today. The army is extremely inexperienced in combat.
The geographical environment of Taiwan determines that the front is not very large, which means that it is difficult for mainland China to take advantage of the large volume.

That is, the results of China's attack on Taiwan may not be so easy to obtain.

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Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.

You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.

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Pepe
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21 May 2022, 1:42 am

magz wrote:

Pepe wrote:

magz wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

And Russia cannot be trusted.

Да.
You're realistic so you know it.

Virtually every non-Russian would know this.

Not really - Germany is only now realizing why raplacing their coal power plants with ones running on (Russian) natural gas was a very bad idea.

This had nothing to do with trusting each other.
Russia sold CO2 producing fossil fuels while Germany stupidly depended on "clean energy" and in addition, paid Russia for the dirty energy. (Rather stupid, don't you think?)

But it wasn't a case of Trust.
It was a financial arrangement, and if Russia didn't deliver, Germany wouldn't pay.
No "Trust" is required.

Pepe
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21 May 2022, 1:49 am

SkinnedWolf wrote:

magz wrote:

Pepe wrote:

SkinnedWolf wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

I would be very annoyed if China became allied with Russia, though.

I doubt I'm certain Russia wouldn't be a military threat to China.
It can't even handle Ukraine.

Russia did not manage to achieve any of its strategic goals in Ukraine but they managed to turn a lot of this country into ruin.
I'm certain pragmatic Chinese leaders take this into account.

The CCP could adopt the Russian strategy of prolonged missile and artillery attacks in addition to bombing raids.
They could also stop any shipping going in and out of Taiwan.
"Starve" Tawain into submission.
They have the biggest navy in the world. What is to stop them?

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