AspE wrote:
..."It's a legitimate question to wonder how they derived the "odds" of life permitting parameters."
...
Conditional probability assumes that the event in question happened more than once. But we don't know that. I agree it's nice to assume so because you can make a calculation, but if it happens more than once, it can happen an infinite number of times, which means all combinations of variables (if they are indeed variables) will occur.
You are right. A huge assumption regarding an "infinite number of times" is made.
The Conditional probability theory is based on the "Central Limit Theorem", which assumes "
the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed, regardless of the underlying distribution"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theoremAs one my statistics professors said about conditional probability .... he asked us, what is the
conditional probability of a coin flip on the 50th flip if the first 49 flips were 'heads'?
Conditional probability says, "is like 99% likely to be 'tails' ,
since we assume nature will approach a normal distribution based on the Central Limit Theorem.However, his response was, "I wouldn't bet against it". Meaning, something seems fishy with the coin, and
it seems like we are in fact NOT approaching a normal distribution.
So, the assumption in most of statistical "odds making", is the above mentioned assumptions in the Central Limit Theorem, that nature will approach a normal distribution given infinite iterations.