Liberals in Canada Crazy like a fox?

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I think, to their credit, Chretien and Martin were rather smart when it came to running a consistently countercyclical fiscal policy. In boom times they ran budget surpluses - the rational reason for that being that when downturns happened there'd be cash to inject into the economy and moderate the reccession. There was a bit of a dent in the surplus caused by the Liberal-NDP budget and a lot greater of a dent caused when Stephen Harper's GST cuts.

Yes, agreed. It is good sense to save when times are good.

Regarding the GST, I feel there were other benefits accrued in dropping it. Changing the original MST to the GST was a mistake. Dropping the GST rate? Not a mistake, but possibly poor timing.

Not only is it good sense, its prescribed Kenysian fiscal policy.

I disagree with you, Fuzzy, about the electoral importance of the West and Québec.

If you are a Conservative Party strategist, the future looks pretty bleak at the moment:

BC: There are new seats coming on stream, but the Conservatives won't likely get any of them. The venomous rage against the HST is going to stick to Conservatives who are closely identified with the provincial Liberals. Every time the NDP call it the "Harper Sales Tax" it's another opportunity for them to hold what they have, and encroach. There are four or five very vulnerable BC seats for the Conservatives.

Alberta: There will be a couple of new seats, but the Edmonton ridings are still vulnerable.

Saskatchewan: No new winnable seats, and many vulnerabilities to the NDP.

Manitoba: No new winnable seats, and a couple of vulnerabilities in and around Winnipeg.

Québec: Almost a guaranteed loss of seats. Even the high profile conservateurs like Cannon and Bernier may face difficulty keeping their seats. The Bloc are pretty much maxed out, and the federalists are likely to come back to the Liberal Party. Absent something surprising, I see the possibility of a 10 seat shift from Conservative to Liberal next time 'round.

Atlantic Canada: Conservatives in Atlantic Canada are Tories of the Progressive Conservative stripe. Absent a significant power shift toward the old Red Tories, I don't see an uptick. The provincial election in New Brunswick will give some sense of where the land lies, but I don't see a lot of hope.

So, if the Conservatives are going to get a majority, there is one and only one place to go looking for it. Conversely, if the Opposition parties are going to keep the Conservatives to a minority or defeat them, there is one, and only one place to accomplish that: Ontario.

I never said they'd get a majority. We are in for 30 years of minority governments realistically. The west and Quebec tie up 2/3s of all the seats with their regional parties.

Nobody expects conservative seats in Quebec. What I said is that they will continue to vote BQ. That doesnt help the Liberals. It doesnt even decay conservative numbers, as the BQ and Cons are playing in different sandboxes. Its the liberals that need to borrow sand from both sides.

The HST is a provincial thing is it not? I mean, it had no effect on Alberta. It was the blending of provincial taxes with the GST. Historically BC has voted conservative even when they are pissed with their provincial conservatives. Will that change? Maybe. I doubt it. More likely BC will vote NDP. People are not so stupid that they forget that provincial sales taxes are not imposed by federal governments.

Sask: You arent paying attention. Even if The flatlanders vote NDP, its not a vote for the Liberals. I'll underscore it again: with 30% of the population, Ontario cannot elect a majority on its own. They need to pander to someone else and the way they have coloured provincial perceptions means that what is great for Ontario isnt palatable for the west.

Let me be clear: Many times in the past the Conservatives have been disagreeable to the stomaches of westerners, but still, the Liberals are more distasteful. Remember when the progressives only got 2 seats? We had a different option(reform) and we took it in droves. The Liberals? Not an option. Albertans are pretty pissed with the Provincial conservatives right now, but you can bet they'll vote conservative federally.

You cant carry a majority with 30% of the population. And just like most elections, Ontario will have a large conservative vote. Even when they dont pick up seats, they cause a vote split that favours parties like the NDP.

You misunderstand the maritimers I think. They shift to voting blue Tory when they come to work in the oil patch.

Hey did you hear about that Ontario guy trying to start a Canadian Tea Party?

from http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2 ... 88636.html

Ontario has got a lot of deep blue in its backwaters.

Out west we think the Tea Partiers are Idiots.

All the Tea Party would do is pull votes from the Conservatives, allowing a Liberal to run up the middle--a repeat of the sweeps of 1993, 1997 and 2000.

What are the "3-4" seats "in and around Winnipeg"? The Liberals aren't going to win Winnipeg North, which will firmly go to Kevin Chief. The only riding in Winnipeg I see the Liberals as poised to regain is Saint Boniface (yes, the Liberals will retain Winnipeg South Centre).

It's amusing, that when we talk about American politics, everyone can jump in on the conversation but when it comes to Canada, you hardly ever see an American or someone from anywhere else on the globe chime in. o.O

And meh, regarding the Bloc, they do say that they are one of the rare people that would defend the Province's interests first. =/ They're more like a safeguard to us, in case the rest of Canada wants to cave in on us. <.< We're still free to vote for whichever federal party we want though.

-sigh- sometimes i wish we had fixed election days. =.= Meh.

I wish elections were decided on the basis of a STV all the time!

There's three by-elections scheduled this month. The only one in contention is Vaughan - a 905 seat. Dauphin-Swan River is safe Tory and Winnipeg North is safe NDP.

Vaughan went Liberal last time, but they had a strong incumbent there in Maurizio Bevilacqua. Now the Conservatives are running a star candidate - former Toronto police chief and OPP head Julian Fantino, while the Libs are running a sacrificial lamb. The Libs will probably lose this one, which will be pretty demoralizing for them.

Ignatieff has no common touch at all, and while I'm not a Liberal supporter, I found Dion to be a more decent person.

A writer for the Winnipeg Free Press thinks Judy lost the mayoral election in Winnipeg this year in part because she endorsed Kevin Chief. The Liberals in Manitoba, who could've potentially voted for her mayorally, were pretty upset that she'd ruined any chance they have of gaining more federal traction in the province (not to mention her RCMP request may have lost the Liberals the 2006 election).

Why wouldn't she endorse Kevin Chief?

To pander to Manitoba Liberals? Aside from that, there's no rational reason whatsoever.

Here's the Dan Lett article I was refering to, by the way.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinio ... rtuny.html

I think they are shocked when we argue. Or even that we argue.

I agree with you that provincial parties should defend their provinces interests first.

That's because your three-party (or four if you count Bloc Quebecois) parliamentary system confounds us. And by us, I mean Americans (don't be fooled by my location-- I'm still not technically a Canadian yet, though I'm working on it).

I feel like I should chime in, since I at least live in Vancouver, but to be honest, the extent of my knowledge of Canadian politics is formed by what I've seen on old episodes of This Hour Has 22 Minutes and Royal Canadian Air Farce. I'm familiar with some of the politicians, like Ignatieff-- and I'm definitely familiar with the HST-- but I'm afraid I wouldn't have much to add to the conversation.

Thats about the best source of news about Canadian politics. Satire is consistently honest.