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Vigilans
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22 Apr 2011, 5:43 pm

marshall wrote:
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ryan93 wrote:
I don't like the term "denier". It deliberately draws connotation with holocaust deniers. Global Warming Skeptics, Evolution Skeptics, Round Earth Skeptics, not deniers...


I differentiate between GW denialists and GW skeptics on the basis of the tactics they employ or their actual level of knowledge. Everyone who is supporting the notion should still be skeptical, likewise those opposed. Thus I lump alarmists and denialists into the same category of 'profiteering'

I have personally worked with some of the data and it is very obvious that there is a warming trend (from many many different sources I might add, not just from thermometers at airports). Claims the trend can be explained by moved thermometers, by the urban heat island effect, claims that the majority of scientists thought the climate was cooling in the 70's, etc, etc... all that stuff that gets repeated ad-nauseum I would lump firmly into the denialism camp. Worst are the claims that scientists are deliberately lying and conspiring. It is irrational to keep repeating baloney that has been shown wrong over and over again and the people who keep repeating the garbage are uncannily similar to creationists in their modus operandi. There's skepticism and then there's just plain idiocy.


Yeah. I also spent a lot of time with the data and there is not a doubt in my mind that there is climate change going on. Asides the climate trends currently being observed, the excess CO2 is having effects on ocean life, much more readily apparent then what is happening on the surface. Ocean pH levels are getting lower, and there can be little doubt as to why.
@Orwell: You're right, one side is basically funded almost entirely by companies hoping to continue making the quick and easy money. I do however dislike alarmists and people making outlandish claims based on little actual knowledge on climate change, as the right wing media pounces on them and increases the influence of these corporate whore-mongers


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ryan93
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22 Apr 2011, 6:07 pm

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Yeah. I also spent a lot of time with the data and there is not a doubt in my mind that there is climate change going on. Asides the climate trends currently being observed, the excess CO2 is having effects on ocean life, much more readily apparent then what is happening on the surface. Ocean pH levels are getting lower, and there can be little doubt as to why.


I have no doubt Global Warming is occurring, there is a strong case being made for Global Temperature increase. But I haven't seen much evidence for anthropogenic global warming. I'm remaining neutral on the topic for the moment.


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22 Apr 2011, 7:40 pm

Vigilans wrote:
I do however dislike alarmists

Even when there is cause for alarm?

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and people making outlandish claims based on little actual knowledge on climate change, as the right wing media pounces on them and increases the influence of these corporate whore-mongers

Ignorance abounds everywhere and at all times, but I will continue to be more concerned about the ignorance that holds more potential to cause harm.


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22 Apr 2011, 7:50 pm

ryan93 wrote:
Quote:
Yeah. I also spent a lot of time with the data and there is not a doubt in my mind that there is climate change going on. Asides the climate trends currently being observed, the excess CO2 is having effects on ocean life, much more readily apparent then what is happening on the surface. Ocean pH levels are getting lower, and there can be little doubt as to why.


I have no doubt Global Warming is occurring, there is a strong case being made for Global Temperature increase. But I haven't seen much evidence for anthropogenic global warming. I'm remaining neutral on the topic for the moment.


I agree with this.

I also believe that too much time and effort is being put into what is to blame (natural climate change, anthropogenic impacts (namely burning fossil fuels), a combination of the two), and little is being done to adapt to the changing climate. Once productive farmland is now a drought ridden psuedo-wasteland? Let's concentrate on moving crops to more appropriate locations. Ocean levels are going to rise? Let's start taking steps to protect oceanfront cities. Etc.

Why the change is happening is really of little importance to me. Because if it is due to human activity, I doubt said human activity will change. If it is due to natural climatic changes, I doubt we can stop it. We might as well deal with the changes sooner rather than later.



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22 Apr 2011, 7:58 pm

Orwell wrote:
Vigilans wrote:
I do however dislike alarmists

Even when there is cause for alarm?

Quote:
and people making outlandish claims based on little actual knowledge on climate change, as the right wing media pounces on them and increases the influence of these corporate whore-mongers

Ignorance abounds everywhere and at all times, but I will continue to be more concerned about the ignorance that holds more potential to cause harm.


You perhaps misunderstand my dislike of alarmists. There is cause for alarm, but the public doesn't react well to this kind of thing, and it just ends up providing fuel for the fire for the other side to pick at them- its already being referred to as 'the gravy train' or 'a fad'. Then again, they won't pay any attention to a calm scientist talking about potential threats in an inoffensive manner, so you can't really win either way
I am concerned about ignorance in proponents because it damages credibility:
I am more afraid of our own mistakes than of our enemies' designs
-Thucydides

Anyways I'm basically in agreement with you, as the denialist camp definitely is not doing anybody any good


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22 Apr 2011, 8:10 pm

Vigilans wrote:
You perhaps misunderstand my dislike of alarmists. There is cause for alarm, but the public doesn't react well to this kind of thing, and it just ends up providing fuel for the fire for the other side to pick at them- its already being referred to as 'the gravy train' or 'a fad'. Then again, they won't pay any attention to a calm scientist talking about potential threats in an inoffensive manner, so you can't really win either way
I am concerned about ignorance in proponents because it damages credibility:
I am more afraid of our own mistakes than of our enemies' designs
-Thucydides

Ok, I can understand that.


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22 Apr 2011, 9:48 pm

Orwell wrote:
Vigilans wrote:
You perhaps misunderstand my dislike of alarmists. There is cause for alarm, but the public doesn't react well to this kind of thing, and it just ends up providing fuel for the fire for the other side to pick at them- its already being referred to as 'the gravy train' or 'a fad'. Then again, they won't pay any attention to a calm scientist talking about potential threats in an inoffensive manner, so you can't really win either way
I am concerned about ignorance in proponents because it damages credibility:
I am more afraid of our own mistakes than of our enemies' designs
-Thucydides

Ok, I can understand that.

The main thing that makes me cringe is when proponents try to attribute global warming to any and every extreme weather event. While there is some theoretical underpinning to the claim that global warming may lead to more intense but less reliable precipitation patterns, thereby increasing the incidence of both droughts and floods, I'm skeptical about claims that the weather is becoming more severe in general. There are climate scientists who have tried to argue either way, but in the end I don't think the evidence is completely convincing. I don't have any doubt though that the climate has been undergoing a general warming trend and that human activity is contributing.



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22 Apr 2011, 9:51 pm

marshall wrote:
Orwell wrote:
Vigilans wrote:
You perhaps misunderstand my dislike of alarmists. There is cause for alarm, but the public doesn't react well to this kind of thing, and it just ends up providing fuel for the fire for the other side to pick at them- its already being referred to as 'the gravy train' or 'a fad'. Then again, they won't pay any attention to a calm scientist talking about potential threats in an inoffensive manner, so you can't really win either way
I am concerned about ignorance in proponents because it damages credibility:
I am more afraid of our own mistakes than of our enemies' designs
-Thucydides

Ok, I can understand that.

The main thing that makes me cringe is when proponents try to attribute global warming to any and every extreme weather event. While there is some theoretical underpinning to the claim that global warming may lead to more intense but less reliable precipitation patterns, thereby increasing the incidence of both droughts and floods, I'm skeptical about claims that the weather is becoming more severe in general. There are climate scientists who have tried to argue either way, but in the end I don't think the evidence is completely convincing. I don't have any doubt though that the climate has been undergoing a general warming trend and that human activity is contributing.


Yeah; I recall there was some article about how some GW proponent/s claimed that climate change could have contributed to the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami... By weight redistribution from melting ice or something... It was totally anecdotal and the right wing media just jumped on it. I'd wager 99.9% of GW proponents made it clear that that was anecdotal and not a mainstream or even accepted idea but the damage was done and nobody was listening to them


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23 Apr 2011, 3:22 pm

I pretty much agree with everything being said here (except that first denialist comment). I admit I don't understand much about GW myself outside of the basic thermodynamics (heat in =/= heat out because CO2 is absorbing it etc) so I'm going to have to put my trust in the current consensus of the scientific community. And that seems to be that GW is occurring and that it is probably caused by humans.

But here's the thing: CO2 does capture radiation--it's a thermodynamic fact. Therefore, even if GW is being caused by natural forces, cutting down on CO2 emissions could help to mitigate it. And since GW will be bad regardless of whether it is natural or anthropogenic, I think cutting CO2 is therefore a VERY good idea.

It's interesting someone brought up climate science of the 70's. Isaac Asimov wrote an essay back in 1959 explaining how burning coal and other fossil fuels could result in global warming. There were a lot of unknowns that he addressed, but it's interesting that even 50 years ago we had some cause to start worrying.



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23 Apr 2011, 3:36 pm

I think there was even talk about it much earlier then Asimov.
Lately I have been focusing mostly on the effects on the oceans, where CO2 absorption is having very apparent effects. There was a period of time millions of years ago when there were higher levels of CO2 in the ocean that led to a much lower pH- this led to extinctions of marine life, but it happened over thousands of years, and the end result was adaptation by many marine organisms. Right now we're looking at the pH dropping by 2 points or more across much of the worlds oceans- in ~100 years. That is a serious cause for concern, as there has never been an equal event to that in the entire geological history of the planet.


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23 Apr 2011, 3:40 pm

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Right now we're looking at the pH dropping by 2 points or more across much of the worlds oceans- in ~100 years. That is a serious cause for concern, as there has never been an equal event to that in the entire geological history of the planet.


Evidence please?


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23 Apr 2011, 3:49 pm

I first read about it years ago when I heard about the 'bleaching' of coral reefs worldwide and the associated decay. I also did research into it back when I was in classes related to the subject. I can't recall all the data sources, but I also recently read this article from National Geographic:
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/ocean-acidification/kolbert-text/1

The article particularly outlines the effects of acidification on organism growth and other related things. The lower pH period I was referring to is called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which was ~40 or 50 million years ago. The absorption of CO2 in the oceans is related to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere as much of the CO2 ends up there. This has often been thought of as a good solution but the truth is much more tragic in terms of the effect it has on marine life.

*EDIT: I accidentally linked it to page 2 of the article but I fixed that, sorry mate! :oops:


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23 Apr 2011, 4:03 pm

Vigilans wrote:
I first read about it years ago when I heard about the 'bleaching' of coral reefs worldwide and the associated decay. I also did research into it back when I was in classes related to the subject. I can't recall all the data sources, but I also recently read this article from National Geographic:
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/ocean-acidification/kolbert-text/1

The article particularly outlines the effects of acidification on organism growth and other related things. The lower pH period I was referring to is called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which was ~40 or 50 million years ago. The absorption of CO2 in the oceans is related to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere as much of the CO2 ends up there. This has often been thought of as a good solution but the truth is much more tragic in terms of the effect it has on marine life.

*EDIT: I accidentally linked it to page 2 of the article but I fixed that, sorry mate! :oops:


The article was interesting, but I think you are mistaken (unless by points you mean decimal, and not pH). Your source, and another I found (link below) estimate a pH of about 7.85 in 2100, not an low ~6 pH. I imagine such a pH will be damaging to some creatures (Coral, namely), but the figures do invoke a different level of severity.

Quote:
Whereas surface ocean pH is estimated to have dropped from near 8.25 to near 8.14 between 1751 and 2004, it is forecasted to decrease to near 7.85 in 2100 under the SRES A1B emission scenario, for a factor of 2.5 increase in H+ in 2100 relative to 1751.


http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2005/2004JD005220.shtml


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23 Apr 2011, 4:16 pm

Yeah you're right, that number was erroneous. I should have checked my sources first, but in any case, even a 'small' drop in pH is dangerous, as it represents orders of magnitude.
Damage to coral is really alarming, and inhibiting its growth and ecosystem stability is akin to the destruction of the rain forests; the coral reefs are something of an analog to them, containing many diverse species and micro-systems. A lot of people depend on the ocean for food... All these environmental systems are related, which is why a cascading environmental failure becomes more likely if such major ecosystems as coral reefs and rainforests suddenly disappear in such a short timescale. In time life will adapt again, but it will not happen as quickly as it took for us to change the game, and Humans everywhere will suffer the consequences


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23 Apr 2011, 4:31 pm

Vigilans wrote:
I first read about it years ago when I heard about the 'bleaching' of coral reefs worldwide and the associated decay. I also did research into it back when I was in classes related to the subject. I can't recall all the data sources, but I also recently read this article from National Geographic:
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/ocean-acidification/kolbert-text/1

The article particularly outlines the effects of acidification on organism growth and other related things. The lower pH period I was referring to is called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which was ~40 or 50 million years ago. The absorption of CO2 in the oceans is related to the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere as much of the CO2 ends up there. This has often been thought of as a good solution but the truth is much more tragic in terms of the effect it has on marine life.

*EDIT: I accidentally linked it to page 2 of the article but I fixed that, sorry mate! :oops:

Another thing that should be pointed out is that the anthropogenic CO2 rises due to fossil fuel burning are not easily reversible. The deep ocean stores a vast amount of dissolved CO2 that is only slowly returned to the ocean bed strata on a times scale of thousands of years. That is the basic problem. The rate at which we are taking carbon out of the deep bedrock is completely overwhelming the natural rate at which this carbon is returned to it.



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23 Apr 2011, 4:43 pm

Vigilans wrote:
Yeah you're right, that number was erroneous. I should have checked my sources first, but in any case, even a 'small' drop in pH is dangerous, as it represents orders of magnitude.
Damage to coral is really alarming, and inhibiting its growth and ecosystem stability is akin to the destruction of the rain forests; the coral reefs are something of an analog to them, containing many diverse species and micro-systems. A lot of people depend on the ocean for food... All these environmental systems are related, which is why a cascading environmental failure becomes more likely if such major ecosystems as coral reefs and rainforests suddenly disappear in such a short timescale. In time life will adapt again, but it will not happen as quickly as it took for us to change the game, and Humans everywhere will suffer the consequences


The one thing I learned from listening to Physiology is that any internal pH change (0.1 is our acceptable range) becomes dangerous, quick (as in diabetes related ketoacidosis). Apparently, carbonification of the ocean (and the subsequent H+) release does nasty things to calcification.


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