Who do you think will win the republican primary

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Rubio can't win

nobody tied to amnesty can win the nomination

Trump can win, Cruz can win, if it's not them then it's a brokered convention.

I was talking about the general election Jacoby, guess I should've mentioned that part. Hypothetically, if Rubio won the primaries, he'd be a more formidable contender than Trump or Cruz.

Trump will tear large parts of normally democratic voting blocs from the democrats simply because he isn't really running under a party as much as he is his OWN party.

All the Republicans I know are either pro-Trump or pro-Rand, but I've heard a lot more pro-Trump talks over the internet than any other candidate. So, I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't get it and I'll be pleasantly surprised if Rand gets it. If it's anyone else it'll be like, "Where the hell did these voters come from!?!?"

That's the Republican wet-dream, but it isn't true. I don't know of a single Democrat that isn't appalled by Trump's policies and mouth. While he has some left-wing ideas, he has A LOT of deal breakers.

Can't speak for the general electorate; but as a forum, Hillary would win even with Sanders draining votes from her.

Hillary is a very weak general election candidate and Trump is a viscous campaigner, she is going relive every scandal she ever had which is probably in the triple digits by now. Lets not forget that she should be indicted for those emails, there is no way she is qualified to be president and she deserves no respect.

I'd love to see Hillary indicted, along with the Bush Administration (who also hid their emails). Hillary isn't exactly my candidate of choice,

If it was a republican candidate that I would choose. The least evil in my opinion is Rand Paul. I am a progressive Republican who forgot to reregister as a Republican.

My estimate at this point - probably worth less than one cent given the FUBAR number of GOP candidates - is that Rubio gets the nomination.

Right now, Rubio is the GOP candidate that does best against Clinton in a general-election-match up (dynamic links, may update):
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3767.html
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pol ... l-election

(Kasich does slightly better than Rubio against Clinton in the Huffington Post poll, and Christie comes close in the RealClearPolitics poll, but both are so far down in the field that a political resurrection seems unlikely)

In the GOP field Rubio also does best with Latino voters (having overtaken Jeb Bush, who previously held this spot), which is an increasingly important voter base.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/c ... st-n474591

... so - at this point - it would make strategic sense for the GOP to pick Rubio (assuming the more moderate Bush doesn't rebound in the polls).

However, as I have pointed out in a previous post, the primary elections are not representative of the general election, since a greater share of very conservative voters show up at the primary than on election day.



Source: http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/12/ ... -activism/

It is thus possible that very conservative candidates (like Cruz or Carson) may get a boost at the primaries.

Furthermore, much of Donald Trump's support base is made up of those who are not overly interested in politics in the first place (and thus less likely to vote at the primaries). It is thus likely that he will have less actual support than the polls have demonstrated so far.

Rubio is who the establishment wants to be their nominee but I don't see a path to victory for him, where is he going to win? He's in 3rd in home state which is better than Jeb I guess who is battling for 4th with Carson. Even if you add up all the support of the favored establishment candidates into one candidate, they would barely eek by Cruz. Christie might have some base of support in the northeast and is more of a combative personality, I think Christie could overtake Rubio as the establishment choice if he finishes well in New Hampshire. Rubio is too married to amnesty to have any chance at winning with this GOP electorate, same with Jeb on top of being a massive dork.

It's Trump's race to lose at this point, somebody has to actually beat him and I don't see anybody in the race right now being able to do it. Trump's support is much broader and more diverse than any other candidate, he leads every demographic, his support is much more intense than anyone else, and remember Trump has barely spent any money at all. North, south, east, west, Trump is not a regional candidate. It has actually been speculated that Trump's support has been underestimated because polling only works when voters are predictable which Trump supporters are anything but, these big polling companies are dinosaurs who still work landlines. If Trump is actually attracting support from outside the traditional political spectrum as so many are saying then we won't know the extent of his support until they turn out at the polls. Bringing new people into the primary process is how you win, Obama was able to do this in 2008 to overcome the Clinton machine. Ron Paul to a lesser extent was able to do this as well bringing young people and others traditionally scorned by the GOP establishment, he was a sneeze away from winning Iowa. Old media doesn't control the narrative anymore, more and more people get their information from the internet and don't trust the talking heads of cable news.

The black vote might go as a bloc but Hispanics are not a monolithic grouping and don't vote that way, I don't think it is likely that GOP will lose with them any worse than they did with Romney. Hispanics that still support the Republican party actually support the Republican party so there is no need to change, some of the most anti-illegal immigrant people I know here in Arizona are actually Hispanic themselves believe it or not. The only people at really support this invasion are big business, white-guilted liberals, and Democratic partisans. The party that claims to support poor people sure likes to make their lives harder, especially poor minorities who suffer the most from illegal immigration. I mentioned this before but the great Mexican-American labor activist Caesar Chavez was actually the first person to lead "Minuteman" border militias aimed at stopping illegals all the way back in the 60s since he considered them scab workers which they essentially are.