Many Republicans favor Don Jr. and Ivanka for 2024

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And this is why I voted 3rd party last election and am likely to do so again this election. Honestly we could get to a 1840s-1860s situation where there are legitimately 3-4 major parties if the share of the two party system falls much further. That was also the last time I can remember the country being so polarized.

Outside perhaps Utah, where McMullin’s candidacy was quite special, I don’t think there is any prospect of the US turning into a three or four party system. Not saying it won’t happen - it is of course possible - but there’s currently no evidence to think it will.

Last time I checked, admittedly a while ago, there were only two Libertarians elected at State level or higher in the whole country, and nobody from the Green Party. That’s not what nations about to go multipolar look like.

3rd party vote share in 2004: 1%

3rd party vote share in 2008: 1.4%

3rd party vote share in 2012: 1.7%

3rd party vote share in 2016: 5.7%

Is it a trend or just a product of historically unpopular candidates? I'd argue a bit of both. The 3rd party vote share nearly doubled from 2004 -> 2012, then from 2012 to 2016 it tripled. Also given the incentives of US elections there should be a bit of a snowball effect as success begets success.

I would argue that the third party vote in 2016 was a true third party vote and not candidate driven (Ross Perot, Pat Buchanon, Ralph Nader). Frankly very few people were excited about Gary Johnson or Jill Stein, but they were excited about libertarianism or far leftism and felt the major party candidates were not representative of their values.

How about 1992----with Ross Perot?

I voted for Johnson in 2016, but would have voted for McMullin if he had been on the ballot.

Wallace in '68, Teddy Roosevelt in 1912.

I mentioned that as a candidate driven third party bid. Akin to Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose party or George Wallace's American Independent party where a party was formed for a specific candidate. The Libertarian and Green party might not be powerful forces in American politics (yet) but they are true political parties.

Firstly 5.7% seems quite a long way off. Johnson and Stein got 4.35% of the vote. Most of the rest seems to have been McMullin (who didn’t have a party) and write in votes for people like Bernie Sanders and John Kasich.

Just checked the actual electoral success of the two big minor parties and they’ve actually suffered net losses since I last checked.

At grassroots level, those parties do not exist. Essentially, every four years they have a convention, and then they get used as a protest vote. If they were actually serious parties then they’d have electoral representation, but they just don’t. The best they can offer are small-town mayors, random judges (! !!) and people on the water board (???). If they can’t put together decent campaigns for state senate then how are they going to campaign for president?

Slight correction for everybody: America does NOT have an official two-party political system, it just works out that way. America potentially has a multi-party system, but anything other than Democratic or Republican is seen as a waste of effort, money, and time (except to those alternate party candidates, of course).

Carry on!

If we had an "official" two party system, we wouldn't be a credible democracy.

I was lazy and just used the non-big two vote for "3rd party." The trend is the same and you can dismiss it if you want, but I expect it to continue. American dissatisfaction with the big-two seems the highest its been in my lifetime. Also presidential runs draw more attention and bring money in for the parties to build down ticket runs. A big win for either of these parties would be to get a candidate on the debate stage (Gary Johnson was close last cycle), or to get 5% of the electorate and matching federal funds in the next election. 2020 might be a stretch but I could see that happening in 2024. Could be looking at a true 3 parties or more by 2032. That is if the big-two continue in their dysfunctional ways putting up unpopular candidates and alienating large swaths of the american public.

Agree that 5% would be a big win and has to be the aim for smaller candidates and would probably beget more success. But I think there’s a big difference between getting 5% of people to lend you their vote in Presidential elections and actually breaking the two-party system. Start getting Libertarian state senators, governors, and national representatives, and then we’ll talk.

Don Jr or Ivanka seems more likely, or do they want two presidents at the same time?