We need to stop labeling dissidents as "conspiracy theorists

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Virtually all viruses to have ever existed on earth developed naturally. A large state does possess the finances and skills to modify and manufacture a virus from scratch.

The theory that China might have developed it as a weapon isn't as far fetched as in my eyes as most people think. Their economy will shortly stagnate due to their idiotic one child policy and they're known for being untrustworthy with business and money. Weakening the world's economy with a mild but highly contagious virus to give them breathing space makes for perfectly reasonable speculation.

Nevertheless, it's still more likely to be a a natural virus or a man-made/modified virus that escaped from negligence.

The 'heat' here is really the idea of an NIH 'CYA' cover-up that's one thing where I don't see myself having enough time to dig into the details on and I'll let other people deal with it other than to say that it does fill in pieces of what seem to be strange upfront dogma and fumbling, that doesn't prove an NIH cover-up but it makes the hypothesis worthy of review.

On the idea that this would have been any sort of deliberate move by the Chinese government I'm less sold. Spread is exponential and they couldn't have known how bad this could have hit them, particularly of all things letting it lose on their own people deliberately. To that end I think the way they allowed international flights out of Wuhan and shut down flights within China from Wuhan was a bit of Machiavellian strategy (ie. we weren't all in this together but we are now).

"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -- Hanlon's Razor, named after Robert J. Hanlon, who submitted the statement to a joke book.

Yeah I am very sceptical of the bioweapon theory, exactly because of where it first appeared - CCP central. If it had first appeared among the Uyghurs or in Hong Kong on the other hand, that might be a reasonable avenue of investigation. It could all be 7d chess of course, but I doubt it.

Edit: There is actually a bioweapon theory that fits better - that it was an American attack on China, followed a similar attack on Iran (this actually wiped out several Iranian leaders). This one actually has more meat to it than the Chinese bioweapon theory, but I remain sceptical.

It therefore appears that elements of the Defense Intelligence Agency were aware of the deadly viral outbreak in Wuhan more than a month before any officials in the Chinese government itself. Unless our intelligence agencies have pioneered the technology of precognition, I think this may have happened for the same reason that arsonists have the earliest knowledge of future fires.

Last edited by Mikah on 04 Jun 2021, 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.

The fact that it appeared around CCP central actually bolsters the bioweapon theory, not diminishes it. China is overpopulated, even the death toll in China is easily replenished, and if it originated among the Uighurs it would make it obvious that its a bioweapon, which takes away from the whole point of the stratagem of covert biowarfare.

BTW I am not saying it is definitively a bioweapon, only that its actually more plausible that if it were it would be released among the general population with advance prep to curb it so as to make it infeasible to conclude biowarfare.

I know it sounds farfetched but as someone whose played Mafia for years its actually a rookie strategy; kill your own to erase suspicion of being the mafia.

This might make sense if they could accurately predict how a virus would react with the human population as a whole and how it might mutate and evolve in the months ahead - which I don't believe is really possible at the moment. To release an infectious weapon whose damage and long term effects you can't really predict well on your own power base is a little too risky for that kind of game.

Or they new the wet market was full of foreign spies and they figured letting out a highly contagious and gain of function augmented virus would help flush out the spies.

So it seems like gainful speculation tries to hit a sweet spot between two things - on one side trying to deconstruct what seems to be obvious BS (whether it's coming down as dogma or coming down as unusual dead-zones in signal), on the other not really bothering with the 'unknowable'. The reason 4D, 5D, 6D chess really isn't a thing at sweeping levels is because the results are really unreliable, that is if you want to do something really covert and you're banking on a third or fourth-order knock-on effect to accomplish what you want your odds of succeeding aren't only really poor but your odds of not getting clipped by some third or fourth order side-effect of the plan is also really poor.

It's not impossible that some group could over-estimate their capability and try something absurd, sometimes as well in warfare really arcane moves have been made such as the head-fake by the British setting up the invasion of Omaha beach and doing their best to convince Hitler (with all sorts of inflatable tanks, fake U-boats, etc.) that the invasion would be going somewhere else. That at least however is a lot more directly 'tangible' in that the goal was move Nazi forces to defend a different stretch of beach and send the actual forces somewhere else. The means of getting that done were incredibly imaginative and ingenious, it was still rather 2D chess.

The trouble with doing 4D/5D chess is we really don't know a thing about truly complex systems and fractal complexity other than that you might be able to change the outputs by changing inputs, there's some talk about how we could shift cultural incentive structures for the better that way (GameB comes to mind there) but actually micromanaging truly complex systems for specific results is something we'd need decades of AI for and even then the calculations from point A to point B would be beyond us and also highly doubtful that sufficient data collection to ensure those results would be possible.

Spreading a elderly killer virus like Covid-sars2 among their own population might be hugely beneficial to China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY&t=1122s

It might (and in all probability) be a natural virus born about by filth of some sort. It could also be legitimate genetic research that escaped, an intentional "testing the waters" virus to see how their burdensome elderly population copes with such a virus and how the world responds or even an intentional virus designed to weaken the economies of the planet. Either way, left unchecked it will do a fantastic job of the latter two if that's what was intended.

The more you look into it the more plausible and sometimes understandable motives pop up differing hugely on the moral spectrum.

It also causes ground glass pattern damage in the lungs of anyone who gets it regardless of age and even in cases where those who contracted it were asymptomatic.

That's a lot of damage to do to the young and healthy for the sake of getting rid of the elderly, and then why on earth hammer steel plates over the doors of the apartments in Wuhan and stop travel to the rest of the country from Wuhan if the goal was to expose as many of the elderly as possible.

It causes lung damage to everyone that gets it?

Even if the young are damaged it still beats having 2 or 3 pensioners to every 1 person in work and might still be a much better quality of life for the young, even with mass lung damage.

Entirely speculation on the assumption that it was intentional, it might have been a prototype virus and not meant to spread or the locking people in houses could have just been a façade knowing the objectives had already been accomplished in the very early stages if damaging world economy was the goal.

This.

What I think I'd stand by, assuming we're looking at most likely case for the Wuhan lab leak to be true, and the idea that many in the US media would do their best to bury the story:

1) This was proactive virology research, ie. research for making more advanced vaccines ahead of time.

2) It wasn't an 'engineered' virus, it was one where given viruses were assisted in making the 'jump' from bat to human by cultivating it in human tissue samples.

3) Some angle, whether it was laboratory workers not being absolutely thorough in their clean up at the end of the day, janitorial services not being as careful as they need to be, the virus essentially escaped the bin.

4) China didn't want to take the economic hit alone, especially with as much of this research being American and European-funded so out into the world it went.

5) Funding backlash for gain of function research was imminent, could possibly be seen as indispensible regardless of public outcry (concerns over synthetic biology in the near future or whatever else), so the idea that this was gain of function research had to be kept away from the public so that it could still go on, and obviously - like with 2008 - we put people in charge who had the most to lose or who had the most dirt on their hands.


Plenty of incompetence and bumbling all the way around but CYA is a pretty easy and streamlined message to understand, it means 'I don't want to go down for this - therefore cover it up', and that's between a communist party run country where information not desired to get out is pretty well secured unless it's in the party's best interest to do so, and on the other side of the pond you have a profession that stands to be undermined if their activities are seen, just multiplying the number of days by lab-workers, as a constant recipe for disaster - in this case 'now proven' by a global pandemic that ends up being the worst case of iatric harm in memorable history.


That doesn't make the above 'true', but there's clearly a non-crazy hypothesis that involves not a conspiracy to let lose a virus but a rather small-group conspiracy to do PR damage control.

I'm leaning towards it being a natural virus but only just. Following that it'll be an accidental lab leak, a prototype "pensioner killer" virus to see the feasibility of a future virus at dealing with their elderly problem and last would be an intentional release of a man made virus to harm the world economy to keep China on a level footing with the other super powers.

China in coming years will become desperate with their huge social care costs, they'll be desperate to make or save money and the people higher up are not to be trusted. In China they have a well known idiom called "Neng pian jiu pian" which translates to "scam whenever you can" so never, ever underestimate what the Chinese government might do. Saving face is just as important of appearing successful in Chinese society and it's not hard to see them resorting to such utterly ruthless and callous behaviour to do so.

Pretty much all of the west will be too, ie. number of pensioners per worker.

Some solutions I've seen - a) find some way to make pro-natalist policy work, b) crank up that immigration, c) crank up that retirement age.

Some of that might work, so long as we aren't culturally imploding from undigested cultural diversity, but I think the most important thing would be this - find some way to bring the cost of end of life care WAY down. People have talked constantly about the greed and clinginess of boomers and silent generation, if the last year or two of their life might cost $250-500K it's no wonder. That's a large part of why having as many pensioners looks catastrophic as well, financing their end of life care. I know we generally don't do anything proactively (ie. thinking on the horns of an emergency seems to be the policy) but it'll have to get sorted out and the R&D will be well worth it.

Point being on that last piece - if we come up with that technology China won't be too far behind us, and right now it seems like Japan is taking the lead in that concern because it's the place where shrinking population has been the most obvious.

too late for the delite button

Last edited by The_Znof on 04 Jun 2021, 5:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.

I will quote myself to explain something that our news keeps saying which are complete lies.

"Get the vaccine so one is not a danger in spreading the virus to others."

Now vaccines do nothing to stop one spreading viruses. They never have and they never will. All it means is the one who has had the vaccine has an immune system that is or should be better able to cope with the virus or disease that one is vaccinated against. Even if they were able to 100% vaccinate the whole worlds population, the virus would still survive and be passed on from person to person. It just means that the people have a head start if they catch the virus.


Another lie I heard on our local Welsh news several months ago when they were reeling out the vaccines like mad was that they stated that they had already been able to vaccinate 78% of the population and they urged the rest to come forwards when called.

Then a few days ago they said "Only 40% of the population of Wales has been vaccinated and there were concerns that people were not coming forwards".

So what is it? 78% or 40%? Were they lieing before and telling the truth now? Or were they telling the truth now and lieing then?

The problem is when we keep being lied to, we then start to believe there is a hidden agenda behind it.