Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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Mikah
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15 Dec 2022, 3:33 pm

magz wrote:

How about all the countries between Germany and Russia who have very bad experiences with the two? Silenced and put into submission?

Probably largely the same. EU economic pressure and propaganda campaigns see them integrated into the EU.

magz wrote:

Is Russia in your scenario a reasonably functioning democracy, not a state founded on systematic corruption and poisoning opposition activists? Are there no imperialist sentiments there? No system of penal colonies rebuilt?
Does Wagner Group exist in your scenario?

I don't know. Russia would be different certainly - the Russian elite have been hugely shaped by events of the last 30 years and Putin in particular has maintained his power and popularity as a direct consequence of the US pissing in their faces for so long. Putin was a very different man when he came to power - so many opportunities to build something good with Russia are now lost, alas.

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magz
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15 Dec 2022, 3:40 pm

Mikah wrote:

magz wrote:

How about all the countries between Germany and Russia who have very bad experiences with the two? Silenced and put into submission?

Probably largely the same. EU economic pressure and propaganda campaigns see them integrated into the EU.

You don't really follow what's going on in EU, do you?
Stopped at pro-Brexit propaganda and didn't get interested after that?

Mikah wrote:

magz wrote:

I don't know.

You should have stopped here.

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Mikah
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15 Dec 2022, 3:45 pm

magz wrote:

You know, theories are worth as much as predictions they can give.

So, predict something based on your theory (USA to blame for this conflict) that wouldn't fit my theory (Russia trying to restore their empire to blame for this conflict). And let's look whose predictions turn out more accurate.

That's how we check who's right in Physics.

My prediction: when Ukraine secures their borders or when Putin dies, Russia collapses internally because of mass dissatisfaction. Either they become an extremely repressive regime or they plunge into chaos. I don't know what would be born from this chaos because that would depend on many external factors. Chances are - another corrupt dictatorship, because that's been the rule of thumb for the last 500 years.

Is that prediction confined to your theory? I don't see how it doesn't fit mine, that is pretty much a best case scenario as far as the US is concerned - albeit one that will cost a mountain of Ukrainian corpses to achieve.

I have a feeling your theory can only be tested if Russia wins this conflict. If they start making moves against countries beyond Ukraine - then that would be a good sign that you were correct. My theory that the US caused the conflict would be difficult to test through prediction, though when we are both in nursing homes I'm sure documents will be declassified and we'll know more about it then. My theory from the Russian side of things is they are acting on security concerns first and foremost. Once those security concerns are met - that should be the end of it.

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magz
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15 Dec 2022, 3:54 pm

Mikah wrote:

I have a feeling your theory can only be tested if Russia wins this conflict. If they start making moves against countries beyond Ukraine - then that would be a good sign that you were correct.

No, you would blame USA

A prediction that Russia wouldn't stop was made at least in 2008, by Kaczyński, after attack on Georgia. The list went:
Georgia
Ukraine
Baltic States
Poland

Mikah wrote:

My theory from the Russian side of things is they are acting on security concerns first and foremost. Once those security concerns are met - that should be the end of it.

Would they stop poisoning opposition activists and journalists?
But if USA were to blame for everything bad, then poor innocent Russia can't be secure as long as USA exists.
By the way, exactly this line of propaganda was used in 18th century against Poland-Lithuania. Successfully. And guess what was next.
And a similar line was used by Germany in 1939.

If you cannot predict anything new with a new theory, the theory is useless. And if it increases complexity but gives the same results, use Occam's razor.

So, maybe, let's get back to what can be proven: someone has hit the woman. Really badly. And keeps hitting her.
How about helping the woman before we start investigating invisible lines of all possible covert plots?

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carlos55
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15 Dec 2022, 4:17 pm

Its an utterly pointless waste of energy discussing the rights or wrongs of this war.

Both sides (Russia & West) are dug in and will not compromise so the end will be decided on the battlefield as usual and history will be written by the victors as usual.

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kraftiekortie
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15 Dec 2022, 4:27 pm

In the meantime, we have to stop the genocide of civilians—and if Ukraine is doing it too, they have to be held culpable.

I would feel a little better if only the soldiers would fight it out amongst themselves, and leave civilians out of it. Though, obviously, not much better.

Our future lies in moving far away from our past.

Putin, and most reactionary leaders (yes, like Trump) seek a reversion to early 20th century conditions.

Mikah
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15 Dec 2022, 4:39 pm

magz wrote:

:lmao: You don't really follow what's going on in EU, do you?
Stopped at pro-Brexit propaganda and didn't get interested after that?

Day to day not really, but this is not required to comprehend the nature of the EU for our fantasy football history purposes.

magz wrote:

Mikah wrote:

I don't know.

You should have stopped here.

I'm answering a question about a hypothetical world where the USA vanished from the face of the earth 15 years ago. Admissions of uncertainty should be respected in any debate, even when it is such an obvious thing not to know.

Quote:

You realize the risk, then - if decisions were made based on your theory and it turned out wrong? We can't afford to test it that way.

The penalty for my theory being wrong (assuming it didn't turn nuclear) is the hypothetical war against an expansionist Russian empire is longer and more bloody than it would be otherwise. The reward for me being right is no war at all. If it does turn nuclear - then there is no meaningful difference - Russia gets to live another 5 minutes before it is turned to glass like the rest of the world.

magz wrote:

Would they stop poisoning opposition activists and journalists?

Possibly. We're assuming Russia has still emerged, battered and bruised from the Soviet Union and they still have a very thuggish political climate. But on the other hand - no USA and there's no getting sanctioned every other Tuesday, no one planting missiles next door, no one scuttling any attempt at a rapprochement with Germany and potentially greatly increased trade with the EU and others. The USA disappears when Putin was his most earnest, open, idealistic and reasonable self. It is conceivable that Russia would be quite different even in only 15 years. You know as well as most how an economic sea change can transform a place - not always for the better and never forever, but sometimes...

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Pepe
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16 Dec 2022, 2:41 am

Quote:

Riot brewing in Russian-occupied Mariupol & analysing Surovikin | Ukraine: The Latest | Podcast
The Telegraph
3.3M subscribers
124,045 views Dec 13, 2022 Ukraine: The Latest | Podcast | The Telegraph
Day 292.

Today, we discuss reports that Ukrainian armed forces have destroyed the Wagner Group’s headquarters in Luhansk, and analyse the influence of Putin's new 'General Armageddon’, Sergey Surovikin.

Pepe
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16 Dec 2022, 2:43 am

Quote:

'Russia is going to be defeated in Ukraine' | Ben Wallace full interview
Times Radio
222K subscribers
323,030 views Premiered 23 hours ago
"President Putin is using energy as a weapon. Are we going to let him win, are we going to let him do that, because if he does, he'll be back for more."

Times Radio's chief political commentator Lucy Fisher interviews UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace about Kyiv's prospects in 2023, the US sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine, and the West's "hollowed out" ammunition stocks.

Pepe
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16 Dec 2022, 2:45 am

Quote:

Urgent Call From Kremlin: Revolting Russian Soldiers Raided Their Own Headquarters!
ANKA Daily News
200K subscribers
198,752 views Dec 16, 2022 #ukraine #russia #war
#ukraine #russia #war #news #ukrainerussiawar #russiaukraineconflict #politicalnews

Tensions in the Russian army occupying Ukraine do not end! Thousands of Russian soldiers have started a mutiny! Russia cannot fight these rebellions. The Russian army is on the verge of disintegration! So what is happening in Russia? How are the revolts in the Russian army coming to an end? Let's find the answers to these questions together.

Since the start of the war on February 24, there has been a mutiny almost every day. Russian soldiers do not want to participate in this war. The percentage of those who support this war in Russia is very low. When Putin started this war, the majority of the soldiers serving in the Russian army did not support this war. That's why Russian soldiers were forcibly sent to Ukraine.

Soldiers who did not want to go to Ukraine gave Russian commanders a hard time. Russian commanders said that Ukraine would surrender without an armed conflict. Because Russia had the second largest army in the world. No one expected Ukraine to resist Russia.

After Putin's decision to invade, all eyes turned to Ukrainian leader Zelensky. Zelensky, who took office in 2019, made statements that surprised everyone! He said that the Ukrainian army will resist this invasion and they will never allow Russia to take over Ukraine! After this statement, the motivation and courage of the Ukrainian army increased. Russian soldiers, on the other hand, panicked!

After Zelensky's statements, the Russian soldiers panicked and went to their commanders. But the commanders had nothing to say! Russian commanders did not expect Ukraine to resist either! This caused the first big disappointment among Russian soldiers!

The Ukrainian army showed a very successful resistance against the Russian operations. The Ukrainian army, which managed to stop the Russian army on the west bank of the Dnipro river, started to carry out strategic operations in this process. The Ukrainian army monitored all movements in the regions occupied by Russia with drones. These drones detected the coordinates of all ammunition depots of the Russian army. The Ukrainian army attacked these coordinates using HIMARS. As a result of these strikes, most of the ammunition depots of the Russian army were destroyed!

Russian soldiers panicked after successive explosions at Russian bases. In this process, many soldiers fled the army and riots broke out in many regions. After the operations carried out by the Ukrainian army, all the stocks of the Russian army started to run out. The food stocks of Russian soldiers were largely depleted.

Russian soldiers have no food and are not adequately fed. They are also poorly clothed. When soldiers share these problems with their commanders, they cannot find any solution. In the Russian army, 2500 soldiers who told their commanders about the problems they were experiencing revolted. Because the Russian commander was very drunk and did not respond to any of the soldiers' demands.

Pepe
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16 Dec 2022, 2:46 am

Quote:

Melitopol: Ukrainian special ops raid damages key bridge | Rock Rachon | TVP World
TVP World
232K subscribers
40,108 views Dec 16, 2022 #Ukraine #Melitopol #Russia
#Ukraine #Melitopol #Russia #UkraineWar #RockRachon

Rock Rachon 15.12.22

Guests: Chuck Pfarrer, Joe Lindsley, Mathew Tyrmand

This time we talk with Rock Rachon regurals - lt. Chuck Pfarrer (ret.) tells us about the special operations carried out by the Ukrainians that identified a Russian HQ that was hit later by HIMARS and put out of action a key bridge near the vital city of Melitopol. Joe Lindsley brings us insight from a mostly blacked out Lviv, and talks about the promise of the Patriot system, that Ukraine is likely to get in the near future.

magz
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16 Dec 2022, 2:56 am

^ this bridge has been blown up 3 days ago.
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=403880&start=2016#p9191280
with a correction here:
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=403880&start=2016#p9191506

I know my analyses are long and boring but tl&dr: this is the most likely direction of the next Ukrainian big counter-offensive. But they are probably taking their time to prepare and wait for the steppe to freeze.
My guesses are described in these posts but the actual details depend on information I have no right to have.

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magz
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16 Dec 2022, 3:19 am

Meanwhile, we're having another big strike on critical infrastructure today.

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kraftiekortie
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16 Dec 2022, 7:30 am

Those punk Russians!

Messing with civilians during war is a punk-ass move.

goldfish21
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16 Dec 2022, 10:37 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

Those punk Russians!

Messing with civilians during war is a punk-ass move.

It's just funny that language like that is a little out of character for you is all.

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for supporting trump. Because doing so is deplorable.

Pepe
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18 Dec 2022, 1:16 am

Quote:

Russia Lost Control: The Gates Of The Baltic Closed To Russia!
ANKA Daily News
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61K views 3 hours ago #ukraine #russia #war

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