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The Future of UKIP

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JohnPowell
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09 Oct 2016, 2:27 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Jacoby wrote:

What is the opinion on US relations in the UK? Obama pretty clearly never cared for the 'special relationship' and I think it took on a new importance with the exit from the EU, I'm not sure Hillary would be much better altho I don't think she personally has as much of an axe to grind against your country as Obama has. Bill and Tony Blair were quite close if I remember correctly, he's still shuffling around altho it seems Labor has turned against him. Theresa May? I don't know her too well.

British people much prefer Obama and the Clintons to Trump although there was some disappointment when Obama used "special relationship" to refer to France. There is widespread resentment about how close Blair and Bush were so we're nervous about being dragged into another one of your wars. We'd rather the PM and President had a relationship like Obama and Cameron, allies who get on but not co-conspirators. Trump is perceived as a hawk and a bigot, and is even less popular than Farage, so relations between our countries will almost certainly sour if he is elected.

Theresa May has previously banned Americans from entering the UK because of comments they have made. There have been widespread calls for that to apply to Trump, but he's too economically important.

On topic, UKIP need to appoint a moderate and position themselves as civic nationalists. They have tried to do it in the past but it was never more than posturing. Farage is just instinctively an authoritarian nationalist. They can't hope to outflank the Tories on the right, and they don't have enough supporters in the centre, so they need to outmanoeuvre the Tories on a couple of key issues without compromising their anti-immigration stance. Libertarian stances might help, as would populist appeals on the NHS and social care which would help them against Labour.


Do they? You mean the media when you say "British people" it seems. Cameron and Obama were co-conspirators in Syria, Palestine, Libya and Yemen. I hope Trump gets in, if he's serious about fighting a war on one front in Syria.

What's a 'moderate'? You realise that most people in the UK want to control immigration? A large number want the doors shut. So basically become the same as the other parties to get in?


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Biscuitman
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09 Oct 2016, 3:45 pm

JohnPowell wrote:
You realise that most people in the UK want to control immigration?


Where do you pull this stuff out from? I swear you must be on a wind up



JohnPowell
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09 Oct 2016, 4:58 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
JohnPowell wrote:
You realise that most people in the UK want to control immigration?


Where do you pull this stuff out from? I swear you must be on a wind up


Facts wind you up?

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefi ... cument/249


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adifferentname
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09 Oct 2016, 5:02 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
JohnPowell wrote:
You realise that most people in the UK want to control immigration?


Where do you pull this stuff out from? I swear you must be on a wind up


Considering the logical alternative is that most people in the UK want to eliminate all borders, I'm surprised by your conclusion.



JohnPowell
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09 Oct 2016, 5:16 pm

adifferentname wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
JohnPowell wrote:
You realise that most people in the UK want to control immigration?


Where do you pull this stuff out from? I swear you must be on a wind up


Considering the logical alternative is that most people in the UK want to eliminate all borders, I'm surprised by your conclusion.


Those in highest positions of power wish to achieve that.


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The_Walrus
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09 Oct 2016, 6:02 pm

JohnPowell wrote:
Cameron and Obama were co-conspirators in Syria, Palestine, Libya and Yemen.

And in six years, no wars were declared. That compares quite nicely to Blair-Bush, which led to two wars in seven years.

Quote:
What's a 'moderate'?

In the context of UKIP:

- Not inflammatory
- Open to immigration when it is necessary to keep the country running
- Sensible positions on other issues

Obvious #3 is a very high bar which Labour and the Tories routinely fail, so it would only be necessary to be within the normal range of sense.

Radical policies would still be fine - maybe a school voucher system? - but they must be able to sell them to the British public, particularly in the North (which is probably where they'll get their next non-Carswell seat).



visagrunt
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10 Oct 2016, 2:20 pm

Well, if we take the Prime Minister's statements at face value, it certainly looks like the Conservative party have fully co-opted the UKIP's only meaningful agenda.

However, the needlework isn't done on Brexit--not by a long shot.

At some point the Prime Minister is going to have to face Parliament. Even if she can invoke Article 50 without consulting Parliament, she cannot un-knit hundreds of Statutes that incorporate EU law into UK law. The Scottish Parliament has a say over EU law in areas of its devolved jurisdiction. The Prime Minister can only unilaterally address that by revoking the devolution to the Scottish Parliament.

And then there is the question of what the Prime Minister plans to achieve in negotiations with the EU. The number one agenda item for the PM has to be preserving the financial services sector--there is simply too much economic activity and tax revenue that depends upon the City. But what's the price tag that is going to go along with that? Neither the Germans nor the French are going to be content on losing the financial services that would otherwise be headed to Paris and Frankfurt without a significant quid pro quo.

If that price is too high, UKIP may yet rise again.


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JohnPowell
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10 Oct 2016, 2:21 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
JohnPowell wrote:
Cameron and Obama were co-conspirators in Syria, Palestine, Libya and Yemen.

And in six years, no wars were declared. That compares quite nicely to Blair-Bush, which led to two wars in seven years.

Quote:
What's a 'moderate'?

In the context of UKIP:

- Not inflammatory
- Open to immigration when it is necessary to keep the country running
- Sensible positions on other issues

Obvious #3 is a very high bar which Labour and the Tories routinely fail, so it would only be necessary to be within the normal range of sense.

Radical policies would still be fine - maybe a school voucher system? - but they must be able to sell them to the British public, particularly in the North (which is probably where they'll get their next non-Carswell seat).


We are continuing with past wars and have troops in Syria. We are also fighting proxy wars in the countries I mentioned. It isn't rocket science. The powers that be know that the people just won't accept it if they just say "we're going to war with x". Cameron and Obama have been worse in some ways. Then there's Obama's drone campaign, where he just bombs people from anywhere who one day might consider possibly planning to do something against the US.

-Inflammatory to who? Being weak on immigration will inflame people.
-The British people don't want mass immigration and we don't need short term answers and flooding the UK more to "rub the right's nose in diversity". And getting in foreign doctors so we don't have to train them here. And getting in foreign students cause they pay through the nose. Money really is the route to all evil.
-The northern votes are going to be very interesting in times ahead.


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