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How many Trump supporters can be persuaded?

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The_Walrus
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17 Oct 2017, 5:50 pm

Aristophanes wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
About 15% of Trump supporters in the Presidential election were reluctant to vote for him. That obviously means 85% were not, but 15% is pretty huge. In the unlikely event of them all switching to the Democrats, then the Democrats would win not only all the 2016 swing states, but also Alaska, Texas, and South Carolina. That's a massive 425 electoral votes.

Before you get excited, it's worth noting that these voters are distributed in a way that is unhelpful to the Democrats. They tend to be well-educated, white, and Republican-leaning. They're probably concentrated disproportionately in blue states on the coasts.

We don't vote at a national level, through the electoral college system everything is a winner take all at the state level. While 15% less people voting for Trump is a large number, if we look at the state demographics it has very little impact. Take Alabama, which voted ~62-34 for Trump, take that 15% and swing it the other way (62% * .15 = 9.3% percent of overall population), it's still 53%/43% Trump, and 10 points is still not a close race, and Trump wins all 9 electoral votes regardless. Likewise, take New York which went ~61/33 Hillary, it's now 70/24 Hillary and it makes not a lick of difference she only gets 29 electoral votes regardless of how much she runs up the score.

You're quite right. I did cover this aspect quite extensively in my post - I've trimmed the quoted section to make that clearer.

However:

- Some of the Midwest states which have a relative lack of "business Republicans" only went Trump by a narrow margin. There don't need to be many of these people to swing the state to the Democrats.
- Those states tend to have higher numbers of Obama-Trump voters who still identify as Democrats.
- And in states like Arizona which don't have much of either, demographic changes are very significant.

My point wasn't to relate this to Trump's chances of gaining re-election, although of course the two are linked. The point is to try and answer, quantitatively, what portion of Trump supporters are open to reason. It would seem that at least 1 in 5 are.



auntblabby
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17 Oct 2017, 8:13 pm

"neofascist" is a much better descriptor.



The_Walrus
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18 Oct 2017, 12:35 pm

Trump isn't a fascist because fascists need to be much more single-minded and dedicated to a cause.

Bannon is neofascist. Le Pen is a neofascist. Trump is an idiotic buffoon who just happens to want most of the same things as neofascists.



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18 Oct 2017, 4:44 pm

I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.



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18 Oct 2017, 5:11 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Trump isn't a fascist because fascists need to be much more single-minded and dedicated to a cause.

Bannon is neofascist. Le Pen is a neofascist. Trump is an idiotic buffoon who just happens to want most of the same things as neofascists.


Well....
If you define "fascist" as "someone who doesn't understand the rule of law, and doesn't understand democracy" then Trump is absolutely a fascist.

Most of Latin America's banana republic dictators were not dedicated ideologues of any creed. They were just slimeballs in uniform who seized power.

Maybe Trump isn't exactly LePen, or a European style fascist.

But since he is rather Latin American in his ruling style...lets just call a "Banana Republican"! :lol:



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18 Oct 2017, 5:31 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Trump isn't a fascist because fascists need to be much more single-minded and dedicated to a cause.

Bannon is neofascist. Le Pen is a neofascist. Trump is an idiotic buffoon who just happens to want most of the same things as neofascists.


Everyone's most punchable Alt Right white nationalist, Richard Spencer, has said recently that not only was it a mistake for women to be given the vote, but that wide spread democracy was also a bad idea.
God, makes you want to punch him. :evil:


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18 Oct 2017, 6:11 pm

KagamineLen wrote:
I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.


I know some people on the spectrum who backed Trump due to how Bible Belt culture brainwashes people into thinking that if you don't vote republican, you are an immoral and sick person. Don't these people get that Ted Nugent is far from moral?

Even when I was a child, I was always told things like "Democrats are bad!" or "You're a Democrat, aren't you?" and anything related to gay rights and abortion was held in contempt by these people.



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18 Oct 2017, 6:34 pm

KagamineLen wrote:
I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.


How do you know they opposed Hillary simply because of her sex?


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KagamineLen
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18 Oct 2017, 6:38 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
KagamineLen wrote:
I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.


How do you know they opposed Hillary simply because of her sex?


Not all Trump supporters feel that way, but some just outright said things like about how they did not want a c**t for president and about how Hillary should be gang raped, so there is some misogyny there.



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18 Oct 2017, 7:02 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
KagamineLen wrote:
I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.


How do you know they opposed Hillary simply because of her sex?


They think being a president is a "man's job". Even a woman told me once she didn't want a female president because "women argue" as if men don't. :roll:

I live about three hours from Houston and it's practically The Handmaid's Tale where I live.



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18 Oct 2017, 7:04 pm

There are still people in this country who are chauvinistic enough to not want a woman as President.



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19 Oct 2017, 5:42 am

Hillary did not lose because she's a woman or because of imaginary Russian hackers. Her continued lies and arrogance now are showing partly why she lost. Most of you people here care more about people offending 'minorities' than you do about your government killing millions around the world and supporting racial apartheid and racial colonies in illegally occupied territory stolen in blood by a state that you give $10 million a day out of your taxes. You ought to get your priorities in order!

No point crying about fascism and patting yourselves on the back for being 'liberal' when your country's foreign policy is just like the Nazis. Get a grip!


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19 Oct 2017, 7:54 am

JohnPowell wrote:
Hillary did not lose because she's a woman or because of imaginary Russian hackers. Her continued lies and arrogance now are showing partly why she lost. Most of you people here care more about people offending 'minorities' than you do about your government killing millions around the world and supporting racial apartheid and racial colonies in illegally occupied territory stolen in blood by a state that you give $10 million a day out of your taxes. You ought to get your priorities in order!

No point crying about fascism and patting yourselves on the back for being 'liberal' when your country's foreign policy is just like the Nazis. Get a grip!


Huh?

Walk us all through this please.

We get that you hate Israel. And that you think that Israel is worse than Nazi Germany. And we get that you don't like the US supporting Israel.

But what does that hafta do with the subject of this thread, which is Trump?

Whether Hillary is an arrogant liar, or not is irrelevant, because Trump is also an arrogant liar so that wouldn't make any difference to anything.

Further, Trump is not an alternative to his proIsrael predecessors, nor to Hillary, by being anti Israel. In fact he seems to be even more fanatic in supporting Israel than Hillary or Bush/Obama etc.

So why are you dragging Israel into this discussion about Trump?



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19 Oct 2017, 8:35 am

The_Walrus wrote:
My point wasn't to relate this to Trump's chances of gaining re-election, although of course the two are linked. The point is to try and answer, quantitatively, what portion of Trump supporters are open to reason. It would seem that at least 1 in 5 are.

Even then, that's just the brand identification with Trump. A large portion of Trump voters who were eligible in 2000/04 voted for Bush Jr. who was basically Trump-mini. Lo and behold, you can't find a single one today who thinks Bush Jr. was a good choice, yet they still doubled down on the Bush approach by electing Trump. I hardly find that to be 'reason', it's more akin to a slick corporate maneuver: when the company commits maleficence and withers under public scrutiny, keep the company in tact and just change the name. The question then becomes: exactly what do those 15% disagree with Trump on? And the answer I fear is: not much, we just don't like his personality.



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19 Oct 2017, 9:36 pm

KagamineLen wrote:
I still cannot understand how anybody with a disability could have voted Trump. He made it clear what he thought of the disabled when he used a reporter's disability against him like a schoolyard bully.

But I guess some people are willing to vote against their best interests to keep a female out of the Oval Office.


Me too although it has nothing to do with that reporter for me. He has stayed quiet about what he would do for those of us with one. They didn't even have hardly anything on the white house website about disabilities until recently.
He also is trying to get rid of affordable health care. Not to mention what Jeff Sessions said about disabled students.
Another thing I noticed though maybe they are oblivious about it was what he said about genetics.

I don't see how any decent person can support him though. Trying to pardon a monster like Joe Arpaio was probably the absolute last straw. When I read what that guy does to people in his prisons I was absolutely sickened. It sounds like something out of a thriller tv show to me.
I found out that my aunt voted for Trump but she sees that he's not so good now so sounds like she knows she made a mistake at least.

KagamineLen wrote:

Not all Trump supporters feel that way, but some just outright said things like about how they did not want a c**t for president and about how Hillary should be gang raped, so there is some misogyny there.


This is why I don't connect with my gender either. A lot of men are horrible too but in a different way. Women are just so nasty to each other.


However the worst part isn't any of this. The worst part is Trump says/does stupid things everyday and it's a huge distraction so the concerning policies aren't as paid attention to. People are missing the wizard behind the curtain.



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02 Nov 2017, 12:35 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
JohnPowell wrote:
Hillary did not lose because she's a woman or because of imaginary Russian hackers. Her continued lies and arrogance now are showing partly why she lost. Most of you people here care more about people offending 'minorities' than you do about your government killing millions around the world and supporting racial apartheid and racial colonies in illegally occupied territory stolen in blood by a state that you give $10 million a day out of your taxes. You ought to get your priorities in order!

No point crying about fascism and patting yourselves on the back for being 'liberal' when your country's foreign policy is just like the Nazis. Get a grip!


Huh?

Walk us all through this please.

We get that you hate Israel. And that you think that Israel is worse than Nazi Germany. And we get that you don't like the US supporting Israel.

But what does that hafta do with the subject of this thread, which is Trump?

Whether Hillary is an arrogant liar, or not is irrelevant, because Trump is also an arrogant liar so that wouldn't make any difference to anything.

Further, Trump is not an alternative to his proIsrael predecessors, nor to Hillary, by being anti Israel. In fact he seems to be even more fanatic in supporting Israel than Hillary or Bush/Obama etc.

So why are you dragging Israel into this discussion about Trump?


I didn't say that Israel is worse than Nazi Germany.

Because people who say they are against Trump because of 'fascism', are fine when Israel do it.

People were left with two terrible choices, they made the right one.


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