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Feyokien
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04 Nov 2020, 8:52 am

Biden now has a chance to win Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin on top of Nevada. He only needs Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada to get to 270. Who knows about Pennsylvania and I still think North Carolina will go Trump for certain.



Feyokien
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04 Nov 2020, 9:02 am

The AP just update Michigan to blue. Only a difference of ~4000 votes and still counting. Biden could also get 270 with Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan.

I'm predicting Georgia will go Trump. Need to make up a difference of ~100,000 votes there for Biden to win. Could happen.

The electoral split could be 270 Biden > 267 Trump. Hm, where is the other electoral vote? Supposed to be 538 total.



Feyokien
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04 Nov 2020, 9:24 am

I recall that Biden became the Democratic nominee because he won the Georgia and West Virginia primaries. He may win neither of those states, and he's barely holding on to the Midwest which favored other candidates. if Iowa is anything to go off of where Sanders and Buttigieg were neck and neck. Either of those candidates may have fared worse in other regions though, difficult to say.



Tempus Fugit
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04 Nov 2020, 11:47 am

I heard on the radio it could take until Friday to get the final results.



Catlover5
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04 Nov 2020, 11:54 am

Tempus Fugit wrote:
I heard on the radio it could take until Friday to get the final results.


That's a small bonus, Trump will have longer to agonise in uncertainty :twisted:



Feyokien
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04 Nov 2020, 12:08 pm

I think team Trump wants the uncertainty. This election is shaping up to be highly controversial regardless of who gets slightly more electoral votes and just breaks 270. The voter output is far exceeding 2016 already and there's still a lot of votes to count in 'called' states like California.

Tempus Fugit wrote:
I heard on the radio it could take until Friday to get the final results.


Might be a Biden win at this point, but that's not certain still. If the map were decided on current totals, Biden would already have won. Nevada, which Democrats won in 2016, is the biggest uncertainty if it will remain Democrat. Pennsylvania could majorly swing left like Wisconsin and Michigan did, but who knows. I certainly wasn't expecting those shifts even with the mail in ballots.



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04 Nov 2020, 12:15 pm

270 vs. 267 if the current map holds. 290 vs. 247 if PA flips.

I'm not sure where the missing vote is, so I can't assign it. :oops:


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04 Nov 2020, 12:21 pm

I think the AP miscalculated the total. I broke it down and got 238214. So as it stands we're looking at 270268.



StayFrosty
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04 Nov 2020, 12:22 pm

We are still screwed either way!



Feyokien
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04 Nov 2020, 12:28 pm

Catlover5 wrote:
I think the AP miscalculated the total. I broke it down and got 238214. So as it stands we're looking at 270268.


I think it may be correct. Biden took one of Nebraska's votes and only earned 3 in Maine, while the remaining didn't go to Trump because I guess he didn't earn enough of the vote (too split between him and other candidates). So there are only 537 votes up for grabs, I think.



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04 Nov 2020, 12:31 pm

I want Trump knocked off his high horse. Then Biden can either snuff it during his term or do a really bad job and be forced to leave. Then we'll be rid of them both :D



Catlover5
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04 Nov 2020, 12:43 pm

Feyokien wrote:
Catlover5 wrote:
I think the AP miscalculated the total. I broke it down and got 238214. So as it stands we're looking at 270268.


I think it may be correct. Biden took one of Nebraska's votes and only earned 3 in Maine, while the remaining didn't go to Trump because I guess he didn't earn enough of the vote (too split between him and other candidates). So there are only 537 votes up for grabs, I think.


I stand corrected!



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04 Nov 2020, 12:48 pm

Has Wisconsin been projected to Biden yet?

I heard rumors to that effect.



magz
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04 Nov 2020, 12:52 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
Has Wisconsin been projected to Biden yet?

I heard rumors to that effect.

Quote:
Wis. 49% 49% 99%
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/us2020/results
Tightly undetermined.


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Catlover5
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04 Nov 2020, 12:54 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
Has Wisconsin been projected to Biden yet?

I heard rumors to that effect.


Yes



Catlover5
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04 Nov 2020, 12:55 pm

.



Last edited by Catlover5 on 04 Nov 2020, 2:45 pm, edited 9 times in total.