Technological Unemployment: The Real Reason This Elephant Ch

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LoveNotHate
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16 Mar 2017, 6:10 pm

jrjones9933 wrote:
Fugu wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
The problem with "basic income" is that it enables everyone to have 10+ kids.

Poverty / scarcity of resources is what keeps the population down.

In the end, poor people will take the basic income money, and still live in same poverty, because it will be spent on more kids to feed and care for.

It's the same principal in the "Don't feed the X" signs ...

you have quite the ironic username if you're comparing poor people to animals.

It's such a disgusting comment. Given the chance I'd force LoveNotHate to wear it like a sign in public in order to get a sense for how vile it is.

According to science class, poor people are animals (mammals).



jrjones9933
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16 Mar 2017, 6:12 pm

One cannot challenge a poster with zero integrity. Raptor, at least, would back up his awful comment. For shame.


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Fugu
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16 Mar 2017, 6:14 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
jrjones9933 wrote:
Fugu wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
The problem with "basic income" is that it enables everyone to have 10+ kids.

Poverty / scarcity of resources is what keeps the population down.

In the end, poor people will take the basic income money, and still live in same poverty, because it will be spent on more kids to feed and care for.

It's the same principal in the "Don't feed the X" signs ...

you have quite the ironic username if you're comparing poor people to animals.

It's such a disgusting comment. Given the chance I'd force LoveNotHate to wear it like a sign in public in order to get a sense for how vile it is.

According to science class, poor people are animals (mammals).
bravo on being disingenuous?
an·i·mal
noun
noun: animal; plural noun: animals
- a person whose behavior is regarded as devoid of human attributes or civilizing influences, especially someone who is very cruel, violent, or repulsive.



LoveNotHate
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16 Mar 2017, 6:19 pm

Fugu wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
jrjones9933 wrote:
Fugu wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
The problem with "basic income" is that it enables everyone to have 10+ kids.

Poverty / scarcity of resources is what keeps the population down.

In the end, poor people will take the basic income money, and still live in same poverty, because it will be spent on more kids to feed and care for.

It's the same principal in the "Don't feed the X" signs ...

you have quite the ironic username if you're comparing poor people to animals.

It's such a disgusting comment. Given the chance I'd force LoveNotHate to wear it like a sign in public in order to get a sense for how vile it is.

According to science class, poor people are animals (mammals).
bravo on being disingenuous?
an·i·mal
noun
noun: animal; plural noun: animals
- a person whose behavior is regarded as devoid of human attributes or civilizing influences, especially someone who is very cruel, violent, or repulsive.

I compared to a bird animal.



LoveNotHate
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16 Mar 2017, 6:47 pm

jrjones9933 wrote:
One cannot challenge a poster with zero integrity. Raptor, at least, would back up his awful comment. For shame.

This is an ASD site.
You should expect "cold logic" from AS people.
In real life, I have had "flat affect" of diminished emotion my entire life.
I am dx with AS.

Your personal insults are unwarranted.

Searching the internet now, I see other people have raised this same concern with regards to 'basic income'. So, me bringing up this apparent problem is not unusual.



jrjones9933
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16 Mar 2017, 7:36 pm

LoveNotHate wrote:
jrjones9933 wrote:
One cannot challenge a poster with zero integrity. Raptor, at least, would back up his awful comment. For shame.

This is an ASD site.
You should expect "cold logic" from AS people.
In real life, I have had "flat affect" of diminished emotion my entire life.
I am dx with AS.

Your personal insults are unwarranted.

Searching the internet now, I see other people have raised this same concern with regards to 'basic income'. So, me bringing up this apparent problem is not unusual.

Your personal insult against an entire class of people deserves repudiation. You have a history of hate speech, and have certainly had ample opportunity to learn what that means. I therefore assume you fail or refuse to learn that everyone deserves basic respect. That does not sound like ASD to me, so your DX kind of makes your physician sound incompetent.


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techstepgenr8tion
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16 Mar 2017, 10:15 pm

I just don't think most people understand how potentially bad this situation can get; ie. 25 percent unemployment we're Greece electing the Golden Dawn party, 50% unemployment we're probably in full-scale revolution and looking at joining the third world.

Even something that's slightly-worse than what we have is better than that. I'd take huge welfare families over 1990's Bosnia any day of the week, especially if it's a temporary problem that the dials could be tweaked on without the country turning into a war-torn hellhole.


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jrjones9933
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16 Mar 2017, 10:21 pm

Thank you^

In case the entire previous exchange gets deleted, the research shows that people have fewer children and care more for them in correlation with increased income. Particularly, people who get displaced and have the worst likely future outcomes will care less about their children than economically secure people. Onward up the income scale, the correlation continues, with fewer children cared for more. Good education makes an excellent start on this trend, even at very low survivable incomes.

A random gift will have a lasting impact on the lives of very poor people, as a baseline. Look up Give Directly for more.


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techstepgenr8tion
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16 Mar 2017, 10:31 pm

I just think people need to stop wishing for utopia. All we can do is count how many dystopias we've avoided as alternatives.

I posted a Roger Scruton chat yesterday where he talks about multinational companies having increasing anonymity, being able to pass incalculable costs on to future generations and we simply don't have a concept of it because, as human beings, we have a rather poor skill set for traveling down conceptual rabbit holes accurately. It's like the way Lord Obama and his surveillance state seemed to pass under most democrat's radars - out of sight out of mind.

While I'd never say that corporations are evil I would say that they're always in a fight with one another for their very survival and if they don't cut costs and cut corners anywhere they possibly can that isn't passed on the shareholders or consumers they're toast. If they can now automate most of their labor it means that the thing that we've counted on as our welfare system for the last couple hundred years, ie. the labor market, will be by and large gone and we'll have very few choices very quickly as to what type of system we can supplement that with. We can do that, or we can start lining people up, 'grade' their capacities on a bell-curve, and kill or chemically castrate everyone under a certain performance mark. Aside from the more active possibility in the back half of the last sentence there's also the possibility of North Korea style living popping up across the country, Hunger Games anyone?

IMHO if we get stuck on ideological purity we'll be in a lot more sincere trouble than we'd need to be and I think it's been fleshed out well enough that the jobs that will be disappearing aren't limited to, or even in sizable minority, the types of jobs that you'd never wish upon another human being.


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jrjones9933
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16 Mar 2017, 10:37 pm

Before I forget, Whining For Utopia might be the best album name ever. Whoops, you said 'wishing' and I read it wrong, but I'm still right.

To your other points, I didn't realize how badly people went to sleep on their party's watch. I did watch Alex Jones back in the early days on Austin Access TV. He wasn't crazy, and was spot on about CARNIVORE, down to the name. It sounded a little crazy then, but I took note of the difference between that and his cultural supremacy BS.

Also, I heard the same name and program on Coast to Coast AM, which was a great BS detector training camp. Art let his guests have their say, and could communicate his skepticism in the outros. Who knows about the rest; as I've said: elect me and I will look at all the secret stuff. Maybe I'll tell you, too.

My point, people on all sides have warned us about the surveillance state, and half the politically active people go to sleep half the time. It seemed logical and reasonable to expect the national security state to use all available technology, in whatever way they could survive. We raise a fuss and they pull back, but that's hard to do when different people care under different administrations. Thank Bob for EFF.

Corporations operate under a flawed model based on the abuse of economic science. There's a cure, and it's being applied already, Behavioral Economics. Expect much craziness, some bad.

Better education, particularly sex education and free contraception will dramatically reduce accidental first pregnancies. Those set the tone for too many lives. Not all population control requires totalitarianism.

Ideological purity is fine with me, as long as it's original content, and it rarely is.


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16 Mar 2017, 10:59 pm

some disorganized thoughts :duh: I don't like it when full-of-themselves middle-class folk refer to people like me as "animals" in need of culling. if our politics does not soon suppress this sort of scapegoating, no good can come from it. why do we insist on hiring foreigners to do our tech work, and utterly refusing to train our own people for those jobs? if we're such a smart and forwards-thinking country [I have my doubts that we still are] then why are we still in this short-sighted situation? if we were smart enough to send somebody to the moon, then we should have the brains to solve the problem of technological obsolescence of workers, that surely is no more of a moonshot than the moonshot.



LoveNotHate
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17 Mar 2017, 1:39 am

jrjones9933 wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
jrjones9933 wrote:
One cannot challenge a poster with zero integrity. Raptor, at least, would back up his awful comment. For shame.

This is an ASD site.
You should expect "cold logic" from AS people.
In real life, I have had "flat affect" of diminished emotion my entire life.
I am dx with AS.

Your personal insults are unwarranted.

Searching the internet now, I see other people have raised this same concern with regards to 'basic income'. So, me bringing up this apparent problem is not unusual.

Your personal insult against an entire class of people deserves repudiation. You have a history of hate speech, and have certainly had ample opportunity to learn what that means. I therefore assume you fail or refuse to learn that everyone deserves basic respect. That does not sound like ASD to me, so your DX kind of makes your physician sound incompetent.

What nonsense.

I am reporting you.

You have made several personal insults on this topic.

You don't appear to be able to discuss topics without making personal insults.

Also, I have been dx by at least seven different doctors and one autism specialist, at multiple hospitals.



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17 Mar 2017, 2:11 am

jrjones9933 wrote:
That does not sound like ASD to me, so your DX kind of makes your physician sound incompetent.


seeing as this is a site for those on the autism spectrum, attempting to provide support for such individuals...belittling and ridicule of an autism DX in this way runs afoul of rules 1 and 2 and is not cool:

Quote:
1. Posting offensive language, comments, video, or images.
Unacceptable content includes swearing; racist, sexist, homophobic language; behavior intended to provoke or belittle other members.......

2. Personal attacks.
This includes insinuation, ridicule and personal insults, regardless of whether direct or indirect.


and would be better off stamped out. this goes for all involved.


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techstepgenr8tion
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17 Mar 2017, 5:57 am

To LnH's point earlier:

A few good workaround possibilities:

- UBI starts at 16 or 18
- UBI is only 25 to 50% until age 16 or 18
- UBI accrues in a trust fund and is untouchable until 16 or 18, some of this money is directly available for a person to establish themselves but most of it is an annuity.

Any one of these would help keep UBI (universal basic income) from turning into the Great Society on steroids.


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17 Mar 2017, 7:07 am

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
If they can now automate most of their labor it means that the thing that we've counted on as our welfare system for the last couple hundred years, ie. the labor market, will be by and large gone and we'll have very few choices very quickly as to what type of system we can supplement that with.


We're nowhere near the point of universal human redundancy yet. The shift towards robotic labour will be gradual, and have a similar (if much larger scale) effect to the historical shift from agrarian to industrial society. Automation tends to create jobs, not to replace them. Those tasks that cannot be automated increase in number as the tasks which can be automated require greater numbers of human beings as machines become more efficient.

From The Economist

Quote:
During the Industrial Revolution more and more tasks in the weaving process were automated, prompting workers to focus on the things machines could not do, such as operating a machine, and then tending multiple machines to keep them running smoothly. This caused output to grow explosively. In America during the 19th century the amount of coarse cloth a single weaver could produce in an hour increased by a factor of 50, and the amount of labour required per yard of cloth fell by 98%. This made cloth cheaper and increased demand for it, which in turn created more jobs for weavers: their numbers quadrupled between 1830 and 1900. In other words, technology gradually changed the nature of the weaver’s job, and the skills required to do it, rather than replacing it altogether.


The same pattern is found in e.g. banking, and pretty much everywhere else:

Quote:
The same pattern can be seen in industry after industry after the introduction of computers, says Mr Bessen: rather than destroying jobs, automation redefines them, and in ways that reduce costs and boost demand. In a recent analysis of the American workforce between 1982 and 2012, he found that employment grew significantly faster in occupations (for example, graphic design) that made more use of computers, as automation sped up one aspect of a job, enabling workers to do the other parts better.


That's not to suggest that everything will just work itself out and that nobody will be affected, but the doom-mongering Luddite argument that x% of jobs will be replaced over the next few decades is built on a presumption that everything other than the mass introduction of robots will remain static.



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17 Mar 2017, 9:35 am

https://www.petermanningnyc.com/
This company sells clothes for guys under 5'8"

This is one way the economy might change as low cost production eliminates high paying jobs. Instead of slaving over a sewing machine, these guys create their own jobs by designing and selling clothing to markets the big companies refuse to service.

http://www.fliskits.com/
Another example. I'm sure they don't make as many rockets at Estes does, but they have created a business selling their own clever model rocket designs.

It may be worthwhile for Aspies to see if they can monetize their special interests like these two guys have done.