Iran and nuclear weapons

Post Reply New Topic

And since Israel has proved so competent in establishing peace and good will in the region it will be in good hands.

Seeing that Iran has previously had no qualms about sending children into mine fields, they probably wouldn't give a damn about the Mutually Assured Destruction policy that comes with possessing nuclear weapons. I doubt this world will end in strategic nuclear war, though I see it quite possible for the IDF to utilize tactical nuclear weapons, if necessary, for the elimination of Iranian nuclear weapons factories.

Iran used Pasdaran suicide units in the Iran-Iraq as a strategy of war for their national survival against Iraqi, but i doubt they will use it knowing they will be blown to bits as well. the IDF as of right now would have trouble getting flyover rights over Iraq, from the U.S and even if Israel did go after Irans nuclear program, it is scattered throughout 14 + sites. It is not like the 1981 Iraq nuclear site or the recent Syrian reactor built with NKs help. This is a program that has been in the making for several years, and the Ayatollahs are fanatical but they aren't stupid. The best way to deal with Iran is to contain them and make life unbearable for the average citizen so they can go vote in the Majles elections and bring in a more moderate president who can soften his stances like Iran did after Rasfajanhi lost to Khatami in the 90s. We need a moderate there who could possibly lead an internal revolution without the United States getting directly involved, because it would be counterproductive. Iranians have a very paranoid ideology when it comes to foreign colonialism/domination and rightfully so thanks to the british and the russians in the 1840s and our assisting Britain plan the 1953 Mossadeq coup.

I don't know if the psychology there is correct. It may be true for some people but I think there are others would become more belligerent towards the foreign powers holding their country to ransom in such a way and spark more hatred and terrorism towards those foreign powers.

We already deal with their terrorism via Hezbollah, Hamas, and their spreading unrest in Sunni run gulf monarchies. The people in Iran have a history of revolting when internal conditions are so miserable that they lose trust in their Govt. For example the 1979 coup attempt was precipitated by the 1962 " white revolution" launched by the Shah..It was supposed to be internal improvements but it just created big problems by displacing agricultural laborers, rapid urbanization, and unemployment. It backfired and the use of SAVAK on their people was brutal. There is a big disparity right now between the ruling elite and the growing 18-25 year old population which wants Western style modernization not the religious dogma inspired by the Ayatollahs in Qom. If the inflation rate can go over 15 percent there, and containment works via support from Syria (Yes, Syria) and most importantly European companies doing business with them, including Russia, We have a good chance of being successful.

Let's remember who supported the Shah as well .

Yes, we made a big mistake by openly endorsing the Shah even when he came to the U.S for medical treatment. But i do think the Iranians themselves overplay it to the point where they think we endorsed every one of his policies. Carter made mistakes in 1979 with Operation Eagle Claw and endorsing General Husayn leading a coup. Iranian-US and Iranian-Western relations is incredibly complicated beginning with the " Definitive treaty" of 1814 which basically made Iran a pawn in the " Great Game" between Britain and Russia and than later during the Qajar period in the 1850s-1860s when Iran became so poor due to mismanagement and inflation at around 600 percent that they sold many of their concessions like mining and had massive debts causing Britain to come to their aid for fear of Russia. This can be seen in 1872 when they sold most of their economic and financial resources to Baron Reuters ( father of the Reuters news agency). Most importantly, in 1891 was the Tobacco revolt in Iran in which Bazaaris( merchants of the middle class) united with Mullahs and landowners against a concession to Britain over tobacco sales that would have weakened its profits..This shows how if their is strong enough united opposition in Iran it can topple regimes.

Im really curious WHY there is so much more concern about Iran's nuclear program then there is about North Korea which ALREADY HAS 6 WARHEADS.I really dont see anything going on right now to suggest that Iran is truly serious about any kind of first use of Nuclear Weapons, nor do I believe the hype that they will give the bomb to terrorists.

Exactly. The current situation is a pit which the Americans have dug for themselves.

Well I can’t speak for everyone, but I just cringe at the thought of a religious fundamentalist regime having nuclear weapons. I’m not saying that North Korea isn’t a potential threat to multiple countries, Kim Jong-Il isn’t a religious fundamentalist, but he is still crazy and unpredictable enough to still be considered a potential threat to the security of multiple countries.

I am not deeply conversant with the internal economics of North Korea so that the general perception that the politics of the country have severely damaged its internal life and economy seems to me valid, just as the same is true of Zimbabwe. But neither of those two internal catastrophes presents a real threat to the world as a whole. The religious zeal of Iran is more palpable but the maniacs who are in control of the country seem to be much more stable in preserving their existence and they do not, at the moment, contain any real atomic threat to the world. Just as al Qaeda was a very useful tool in maintaining the hysteria that drove much of the Bush administrations totalitarian motivations, so Iran is useful to the politics of Israel and the USA whose real atomic munitions are on hair trigger alert. I find the real threat to atomic disaster lies much more in Israel and the USA.

So basically the president saying he would like to annihilate the Jewish state, is not threatening enough? or Iran supporting proxy armies like Hezbollah which have a picture of a mushroom cloud on their flag, in demonstrations? You underestimate the extent of how crazy religious fundamentalism is and how irrational it is.

someone told me (ex military) that the reason we went to war with iraq and afganistan is to take total control of the middle east and its oil, i dont have time to look on a map but he said iraq and afganistan are on both sides of iran. nows all we need is to take over iran, and we can have all th oil we want i guess?

What I'm interested in is how Iranian society will be changing now. The majority of their population now is under 30, they are technologically savvy, modern, and well educated. Sooner or later, I'm sure these intelligent, well-fed Iranians (The majority of whom are nonreligious or just hate extremism by the way) are going to get sick of the 400% inflation rate Iran is experiencing right now and the horn-locking with the West, and are going to take matters into their own hands. Should be interesting to say the least.

And THAT is why Russia, and China are poised to get involved militarily if Iran is attacked! I believe Putin warned that an attack on Iran by the US and Israel would be regarded as an attack on Russia. Iran is a proxy state for Russia in the middle east and a supplier of oil to China.

yep. oil seems to run the world, im guessing because then nobody would be able to fuel there s**t to fire zeh missles!