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JakobVirgil
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06 May 2011, 8:58 am

psychohist wrote:
I meant what I said. The idea that it's just affluence that lowers birth rates has been disproven by the factual counterexample I mention. That's how science operates; counterexamples disprove theories.


In the wonderful pseudo-scientific world of economics, history, anthropology, sociology, political "science" and physiology.
(the world were I work and write professionally)
There is not an arc of history moving towards a better and more complete understanding,
just competing schools and new tools.
It is not that social science is not possible it is that most social "scientists" just don't do it.
the idea that the lowered fertility in affluent society is caused by expectation of heirs
sounds truthy ,could be true, I could buy it. Proven!? please.
but maybe it is cuz they marry later,
have access to birth control,
are not religious about abortion,
eat different foods
.
.
.
I only get surly on this issue because most problems in the world
seem to be caused by people who "Know" stuff have "The" answer.
Communist, Fascist, Free-marketers and other religious people.


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We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??

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Oodain
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06 May 2011, 9:08 am

JakobVirgil wrote:
I only get surly on this issue because most problems in the world
seem to be caused by people who "Know" stuff have "The" answer.
Communist, Fascist, Free-marketers and other religious people.


QFT


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06 May 2011, 10:36 am

"Clinton Calls For Immediate Action On Global Food Shortage, Food Price Spikes"

"Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton at a meeting of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome said that without immediate action, food shortages and volatile prices could spark global destabilization, the Associated Press reports."

"Urgent steps are needed to limit the rise of food costs and boost agricultural production, she said. "Although the situation is not yet as dire as it was four years ago, she said the consequences of inaction would be 'grave,'" the AP writes. "We must act now, effectively and cooperatively, to blunt the negative impact of rising food prices and protect people and communities," Clinton said (5/6)."

The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation

Why am I posting these news articles?

(Matthew 24:3-14)

3 While he (Jesus) was sitting upon the Mount of Olives, the disciples approached him privately, saying: “Tell us, When will these things be, and what will be the sign of your presence and of the conclusion of the system of things?”

4 And in answer Jesus said to them: “Look out that nobody misleads YOU; 5 for many will come on the basis of my name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will mislead many. 6 YOU are going to hear of wars and reports of wars; see that YOU are not terrified. For these things must take place, but the end is not yet.

7 “For nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be food shortages and earthquakes in one place after another. 8 All these things are a beginning of pangs of distress.*

9 “Then people will deliver YOU up to tribulation and will kill YOU, and YOU will be objects of hatred by all the nations on account of my name. 10 Then, also, many will be stumbled and will betray one another and will hate one another. 11 And many false prophets will arise and mislead many; 12 and because of the increasing of lawlessness (or wickedness) the love of the greater number will cool off. 13 But he that has endured to the end is the one that will be saved. 14 And this good news of the kingdom will be preached in all the inhabited earth for a witness to all the nations; and then the end will come.


The end of this system of things is imminent.

*Regarding "pangs of distress" in the original Greek, this word literally means “pangs of birth.” (Matthew 24:8, Kingdom Interlinear) This suggests that like birth pangs, the world’s problems will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, climaxing in to the great tribulation at Matthew 24:21: "for then there will be great tribulation such as has not occurred since the world’s beginning until now, no, nor will occur again."


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and death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain be anymore.
The former things have passed away."


blauSamstag
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06 May 2011, 5:24 pm

Not to come off as blasphemous, because blasphemy presupposes a faith, but the problem with Matthew 24:6 is it's one of very few passages in the bible where the author comes off like a huckster.

There has never been a age between the earliest first-hand accounts in judeo-christian scripture and now when there were not wars and rumors of wars.

It's the sort of prediction that anyone at any period in history can make about any future period.

Lacks that ring of credibility, gives rise to the assertion that most faiths are, when you get right down to it, obsessed with eschatology to the point of attracting a "death cult" label.



psychohist
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06 May 2011, 5:36 pm

JakobVirgil wrote:
sounds truthy ,could be true, I could buy it. Proven!? please.
but maybe it is cuz they marry later,
have access to birth control,
are not religious about abortion,
eat different foods
.
.
.
I only get surly on this issue because most problems in the world
seem to be caused by people who "Know" stuff have "The" answer.
Communist, Fascist, Free-marketers and other religious people.

Sounds like your position is part of the problem here. Half a second's thought and you'd realize that birth control was freely available in western Europe and the U.S. in the 1990s, so lack of birth control wasn't what led to higher fertility rates there than in Eastern Europe. Instead, though, you just propose possibilities without regard to whether they are consistent with the facts.

Different foods? Sure, that's a possibility. In fact, that was what I was arguing earlier: there's a minimum caloric intake that's a necessary prerequisite to population growth - but you didn't want to believe that that was a possibility then.



JakobVirgil
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06 May 2011, 7:01 pm

psychohist wrote:
JakobVirgil wrote:
sounds truthy ,could be true, I could buy it. Proven!? please.
but maybe it is cuz they marry later,
have access to birth control,
are not religious about abortion,
eat different foods
.
.
.
I only get surly on this issue because most problems in the world
seem to be caused by people who "Know" stuff have "The" answer.
Communist, Fascist, Free-marketers and other religious people.

Sounds like your position is part of the problem here. Half a second's thought and you'd realize that birth control was freely available in western Europe and the U.S. in the 1990s, so lack of birth control wasn't what led to higher fertility rates there than in Eastern Europe. Instead, though, you just propose possibilities without regard to whether they are consistent with the facts.

Different foods? Sure, that's a possibility. In fact, that was what I was arguing earlier: there's a minimum caloric intake that's a necessary prerequisite to population growth - but you didn't want to believe that that was a possibility then.


Please tell me what my position is?
what are my biases?
please tell me what I realize or not.
I have made no positive statements.
I am saying that one can't "know" why Anything happens
in a sociological context .
we guess we speculate, we pull things out of our asses.
I am most likely more familiar with the data set then you are.
but I know
I do this for a living. (I am a published social "scientist")
game theory, Eco-evolutionary anthropology, theoretical biology, HBE.
I just think your faith in Theory is misguided.
social science is no were near the prescriptive stage.
my Heuristic is when you don't know the answer chose kindness.


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?We must not look at goblin men,
We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??

http://jakobvirgil.blogspot.com/


psychohist
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06 May 2011, 9:46 pm

JakobVirgil wrote:
Please tell me what my position is?
what are my biases?
please tell me what I realize or not.
I have made no positive statements.

To the contrary, you are the one making unsupported positive statements, not me. For example, near the end of the previous page:

JakobVirgil wrote:
people have more children when they are in poverty.
people have more kids when they are hungry.

Yet you provide no factual evidence, and ignore evidence to the contrary, then claim you make no positive statements. Self contradiction like that, making blatant assertions then denying you make them, are why the quote marks have to be put in the term social "scientist".



JakobVirgil
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06 May 2011, 11:49 pm

psychohist wrote:
JakobVirgil wrote:
Please tell me what my position is?
what are my biases?
please tell me what I realize or not.
I have made no positive statements.

To the contrary, you are the one making unsupported positive statements, not me. For example, near the end of the previous page:

JakobVirgil wrote:
people have more children when they are in poverty.
people have more kids when they are hungry.

Yet you provide no factual evidence, and ignore evidence to the contrary, then claim you make no positive statements. Self contradiction like that, making blatant assertions then denying you make them, are why the quote marks have to be put in the term social "scientist".


I can't find the shrug emoticon.
you "caught" me on that one.
I guess I have to stand by those statements they are as "true" and backed by "facts" as what you are saying.
but I am not proposing any policy.
I have read the papers. they have not convinced me.
at least not enough to cut off aid.


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?We must not look at goblin men,
We must not buy their fruits:
Who knows upon what soil they fed
Their hungry thirsty roots??

http://jakobvirgil.blogspot.com/


kxmode
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08 May 2011, 9:13 pm

"Leave it to National Geographic to make a guy feel really old. In its January issue with a cover story about world population reaching 7 billion later this year, it was pointed out that before the 20th century, no humans had lived through a doubling of population. "But there are people alive today who have seen it triple," the article said."

"That's me, born in 1931 when world population stood at about 2 billion."

"Populations tend to grow exponentially. Exponential growth is characterized by doubling, and a few doublings can lead quickly to enormous numbers. We are now witnessing the consequences of this implacable arithmetic. As population outraces resources, we face a near-term future of "peak oil," food shortages and civil disorder."

http://www.thereporter.com/opinion/ci_18020348

"Setting the stage on day one, Marks & Spencer packaging buyer Andrew Speck provided a keynote that outlined a chilling forecast for the future. Citing the U.K.’s recent Foresight report, titled “Global Food and Farming Futures” (see http://bit.ly/dEgQKR), he said, “We are entering a time where our generations will be approaching the ‘perfect storm.’ This is about growing populations, falling energy sources, and food shortages coming together within the same time scales to create a perfect storm by 2030."

http://www.packworld.com/article-31755


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Revelation 21:4 "And [God] will wipe out every tear from their eyes,
and death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain be anymore.
The former things have passed away."


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09 May 2011, 7:26 am

blauSamstag wrote:
There has never been a age between the earliest first-hand accounts in judeo-christian scripture and now when there were not wars and rumors of wars.

Coming off as a huckster may be a little severe. It is true that we have rarely not seen those signs, however the point that they are increasing in frequency and severity may be valid; still these are only the beginning of pangs of distress.

The signs predicted in Mathew 24:9-14 we have not seen yet. Perhaps Jehovah's Witnesses see the doors slammed in their faces, and sometimes more extreme means to encourage them to go away, is fulfillment of this, but I don't think so.

It is interesting that Kxmode stopped quoting at verse 14 and didn't get to this part: “Therefore when you catch sight of the disgusting thing that causes desolation, as spoken of through Daniel the prophet, standing in a holy place (let the reader use discernment)...”. That is when things will really get serious, but if Kxmode has the discernment to know what to look for he didn't tell us.


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kxmode
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16 May 2011, 11:06 am

"One of the things that Americans are going to be dealing with in the future is food shortages. There is just no two ways about it. Adding to this problem, is nature itself, evident by the recent flooding of the Mississippi River destroying numerous farms that used to feed America. Alternatives must be utilized in order for us to sustain the loss. Never before has the Mississippi flooded in such a way. Could this be the new norm?"

http://fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/a ... r-all/4060

"Recent unrest and rioting in various parts of the world have been attributed in part to food shortages."

http://www.greatfallstribune.com/articl ... dyssey=mod

I'm starting to understand the genius of Jesus' words about food shortages in one place after another. He knew a combination of man's greed coupled with non-fertile soil and exponential population growth would lead to the food conditions we have today. He said "All these things are a beginning of pangs of distress" meaning no matter what humans do or try food shortages are going to get worse, not better. The article above confirms this:

"I believe we are currently in the midst of a third great revolution. I would deem this the technology revolution, but I will leave the naming to historians. Most of this revolution is built of electronic gadgetry, GPS technology, highly engineered large machinery, and yes, Genetically Modified Organisms."

"As the population of our world continues to grow and the amount of available tillable acres continues to decrease, we will see an increase in the demand for food, which, in turn, will require every acre to be more productive."

The purpose of these posts is not to scare you with gloom and doom but to show you that God promises there would be plenty of food for everyone in the new system of things.

(Psalm 72:16) There will come to be plenty of grain on the earth; On the top of the mountains there will be an overflow. His fruit will be as in Leb´a·non, And those who are from the city will blossom like the vegetation of the earth.

(Isaiah 65:21-22) And they will certainly build houses and have occupancy; and they will certainly plant vineyards and eat [their] fruitage. They will not build and someone else have occupancy; they will not plant and someone else do the eating. For like the days of a tree will the days of my people be; and the work of their own hands my chosen ones will use to the full.

These are not fairy tales but they will happen because "God ... cannot lie" (Titus 1:2) :)

Something to think about...


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Revelation 21:4 "And [God] will wipe out every tear from their eyes,
and death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain be anymore.
The former things have passed away."


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26 May 2011, 11:42 pm

There is no recovery. Nothing has improved. Growth for the last quarter came in at an explosive 1.8%.

The rising cost of living is outrageous, as food and energy prices rocket on the Fed's reckless disregard for money.

And government spending is out of control — even after we broke through the $14 trillion debt ceiling.

We're descending into a food crisis that'll ravage the world as we know it. Food prices will not come down. We should prepare ourselves now to see food shortages.

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/foo ... -2011/3088


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A Proud Witness of Jehovah God (JW.org)
Revelation 21:4 "And [God] will wipe out every tear from their eyes,
and death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain be anymore.
The former things have passed away."


kxmode
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31 May 2011, 3:04 pm

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_5MKKuDSFc[/youtube]


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Revelation 21:4 "And [God] will wipe out every tear from their eyes,
and death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain be anymore.
The former things have passed away."


Kiran
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02 Jun 2011, 7:22 am

Yes, but since the food shortage is mostly in third world countries, the western world doesn't really care or even notice. Here are some interesting statistics: http://www.mindfully.org/Sustainability/Americans-Consume-24percent.htm


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ruveyn
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02 Jun 2011, 7:32 am

Kiran wrote:
Yes, but since the food shortage is mostly in third world countries, the western world doesn't really care or even notice. Here are some interesting statistics: http://www.mindfully.org/Sustainability/Americans-Consume-24percent.htm


The third world starves and Americans are overweight. According to the Liberal Canon, Americans are the Cause of Third World Misery.

ruveyn



JeremyNJ1984
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02 Jun 2011, 7:52 am

Kiran wrote:
Yes, but since the food shortage is mostly in third world countries, the western world doesn't really care or even notice. Here are some interesting statistics: http://www.mindfully.org/Sustainability/Americans-Consume-24percent.htm


We dont care? we have our own lives to take care of. When do people in the non-western world ever bother to help me out with my bills every month? We have plenty of people here in the U.S who are struggling right now who I would rather help.