Iranian elections - The Aftermath

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I can't believe that no one has posted anything about Iran's issue yet , it's like you are isolated in one or 2 continents.


Anyways, what do you think about the clash in Iran? and how far might it goes. And how correct the reformists claims about the cheating?

Some nice pics :

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/0 ... ction.html

Repost.

The situation is disasterous. But, let's analyze some of the questions at hand.

Validity

Ahmadinejad, through sending nibblets of money without anything constituting real structural change, has appeased the rural and urban poor to an extent. Aside from ultra-conservative elements in Iran and the military faction (Revolutionary Guard and militia), this gives him a popular base.

The very timid/moderate reformist, Mousavi, posses a base of urban youth, middle class Iranians, some merchants, and reformists.

Now, naturally, the rural poor are still a large consituency which could, in theory, give Ahmadineajad a popular vicotry. But for the millions of ballots in Iran to be hand counted in four hours strains credibility. The election was obviously decided before the vote.

Prospects

The outcome is not good. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, factions of the Ministry of Interior, Basij militia, and Supreme Leader seem strongly to side with Ahmadinejad. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of the Council of Experts (the council has power to remove the Supreme Leader) and hundreds thousand strong unarmed Green protesters seem to be the base of Mousavi's power. But the Greens really have no military power the Basij are millions strong.

My prospect is dire. Already the militaristic and nationalistic elements in Iran are planning a crackdown. If this serves (though I do not find it that plausable) as a catalyst for foreign military intervention in Iran, matters can only get worse.

Sorry - on one hand, I am watching with raised emotions, but don't pretend to understand it. On the other hand, I have been laughing for 2 days - the Republican Party here in the US said that the Iranian uprising is just like what they did ....

I don't know anything about it beyond what's available online on English and Spanish language sites. I agree that the speed with which votes were supposedly counted is hardly credible. I wish the protesters all the best, but I don't expect them to get much - the hardliners appear to be in firm control of the armed forces, while the opposition is unarmed. I imagine that if it ends in full-blown armed repression, that will strengthen the military at the expense of the clergy, since it would show the clerics as unable to govern without direct military repression.

I've been watching the news everyday. Interesting to see what is happening.

Good on them for getting out and protesting.

Well, we're going to get less and less info, i heard they kicked out most foreign TV representatives.... Guess they want whatever goes on in their country to stay. =/

Millions of ballots are counted in Canada in just two hours... Americans have made a lot of this in Iran but this is because when they vote on the first Tuesday of November they vote for millions of things at once that require machines to count.

I think that the reason for the support of Musavi in the West are simple - they prefer leaders who want to make unforced concessions to the West and neoliberal economics, they like leaders who appeal to that demographic that he has roped in and of course they like to see Ahmadinejad be embarrassed for saying nasty things about Holy Israel.

Moreover, this kind of fight that threatens to cause open warfare in the Iranian regime can provide a wedge to pursue 'regime change' and put Zionists in power in Tehran as desired, the pre-requisite for Iran no longer being "evil" and being accepted as a "civilised" country with access to the corruption opportunities that come with being plugged into the world order.

Ahmadinejad won fair and square.

Ballots in Canada are marked on paper and counted by hand. They just empty the ballot boxes, count the ballots, send the figures on... and it goes from there. It can be done quickly. In Quebec during the Bouchard years they had a machine system at one point... but since they have returned to hand-counted paper ballots.

Musavi represents Rafsanjani, who heads the Council of Experts - so Rafsanjani is a bit like an Iranian Vice-President... he was president through the early to mid '90s...

He reminds me of Vojislav Kostunica and Viktor Goncharik. The "coloured revolution" manufacturers decided to go with someone who is "conservative" and almost dour and part of the establishment. They would have Western-financed shock troops like Otpor supposedly fighting for the candidate. The Kostunica would justify giving in on the grounds that the isolation is too much to bear and that he is a good establishment candidate would cater to the "have things both ways" tendancy people have. People can be a good nationalist AND surrender to the West at the same time. Meanwhile, shock troops in direct Western pay would cause trouble.

Come to Iran...it's the new Florida...