Tory victory in 2011 good for the NDP?

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The Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba is set to unseat the Manitoba NDP next Provincial election (which is in 2011). Greg Selinger, the current Premier of Manitoba, has a lot less charm and is much less telegenic than the former NDP leader and current Canadian Ambassador to the United States - Gary Doer. The NDP, in all likelihood, will lose the next election.

My main question is would this be good, in a twisted way, for the NDP come next election? Manitoba hasn't been hit as hard by the reccession as the East (where the loss of manufacturing jobs has cripled the economy). It looks like the Federal Government will restrain paying the provinces and austerity measures will be brought fourth. I'm predicting a double dip reccession, so if the second dip does end up hurting Manitoba will voters have a "kick out the Tory bums" mentality following the Party's (probably four year) tenure after the next election?

Blue = Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba
Orange = New Democratic Party of Manitoba
Red = Liberal Party of Manitoba
Green = Green Party of Manitoba
Grey = Other



http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_I1p1RgLpXfo/S ... B+Poll.PNG

Last edited by Master_Pedant on 08 Nov 2010, 1:26 am, edited 2 times in total.

Good topic.

I dont know. I see your point, but that sounds like a pretty typical American reaction. I'd like to say we arent trained to be so reactionary or short term memory loss as they are.

Change alone is good. I used to hate our 3-4 party system, but I appreciate it more now that I see the nonsense(and irrelevancy) of their two party system.

Canada and general and Western Canada in particular hasn't seen the type of economic catastrophe the US is facing. Unemployment combined with underemployment and people who quit looking for a job is in the double digits and millions of home forclosures are occuring. There's a lot of genuine suffering in the US the likes of which Canadians who don't go across the border can't even dream of. If the economy goes sour in Canada I'd say there'd be a lot more anger then we're presently seeing.

The Manitoba NDP had a pretty good run of over ten years. Gary Doer said one the major reasons he left to be ambassador to the US was because he believed that 10 years was the average self-life for a politician and he wanted to leave on "his own terms". That sort've means he's screwed over his successor, though, who will inherit a nearly unwinnable situation.

I have no doubt. I am sort of shocked at some of the things I hear. Glad its not happening to us.



I had to laugh at this. That sounds like an astute politician.

But still, I was always taught that its good to leave before you are asked. King Ralph did that and retains his popularity.

Anyway. to answer in more depth, Canadians have a highly visible external scapegoat and are less likely to lay economic failure at the feet of their leadership.

We've a lot less of that leader/hero/celebrity worship. I mean, can you imagine a Canadian Paris Hilton? Who is our Ben Franklin, or our Glen Beck? Our leadership are much more regular folks. My city has 50,000 people and I know 3 Grande Prairie mayors on a first name basis despite being an asocial aspie. I worked with one while he was an alderman (Hes the current mayor).

Other than Maggie Trudeau we dont pay much attention to the leaders spouses. Unlike in the states where the First Lady has a good deal of influence. which is ridiculous.

The main irony with Gary Doer - the former Premier of Manitoba - is that he was one of a few cases where his popularity was based significantly on his folksy cult of personality. Nobody paid attention to his wife, though.

Here's the article I got the info from, by the way

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breaki ... 44229.html

He sounds like a pretty decent guy.

It's such a shame that Manitoba politics isn't exciting the forum.

Gary the Doer topic

I find any politics exciting, but I have not been up on what is going in Manitoba. My brother and his wife live in Winnipeg, so shame on me for not knowing more. I think was happens is that Canadian government tends to be more invisible than American politic as se do not see everything that goes on, unlike in the US where they seem to vote for for every issue that pops up, and many legal/judicial personnel are elected officials.

I have to admit that, as much as I dislike the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, spending all this time mingling with real radical conservatives has desensitized me to their stupidities. I mean, Hugh McFayden's one comment here looks sane compared to what the WP Far-right regularly peddles.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coCPVYxb2ww[/youtube]

The NDP, about a year ago, dropped their policy of freezing tuition rates due to rising University administration costs.

The majority of people reading and/or posting here is not from Canada.

On the other hand, Canadian politics might be an interesting and instructive subject to get into more deeply. From the point of view of the U.S., Canada is the "kinder, gentler America" as ex president G.H.W. Bush used to say. Canada is going in a direction that the U.S. might follow so us United Stateseans should really pay more attention to Canadian economic and politics than we now do.

In a real sense, Canada is the future of the U.S.

ruveyn

Odd you should say this. I've lived here in BC for three years, after having lived in the U.S. most of my life, and the impression I and my parents have always gotten is just the exact opposite: Canada is, in many ways, like the past of the U.S., back before things became so hyperpartisan and über-laissez faire. There are little differences between the U.S. and Canada, which seem to stem from the same origins, but result from the U.S. making changes while Canada just stayed with things the way they were. For example-- the last time my parents were visiting me, I had to pull into an Esso station. My parents remarked that they hadn't seen an Esso station in years, since the American iteration of the company had long since become Exxon. They also tell me that the atmosphere here seems so much more friendly and non-judgmental, like people's personal politics don't matter as much here as they do in the States. I have to agree with them about that. One of the reasons I like Canada so much, though, is that people seem to exercise much more discretion when it comes to money. I noticed right away (judging from what I've seen and heard from my friends here and in Ontario) that Canadians in general seem to operate by a sort of common-sense frugality--that they realize the importance of living within their means, and at the same time they don't necessarily see the dollar or that new handbag or that plasma-screen TV as the be-all and end-all of existence, not to the extent that money and possessions are lionized in the U.S. The work hours seem to reflect that as well. I think the general notion here is, working to earn money and sustain one's self is all fine and good, but it shouldn't be the only purpose in life. It's important to have some time to stop and smell the flowers. I've spoken with my parents (both of whom used to work for MetLife) about that, and they both told me that they can remember things being like that in the U.S., and that they noticed it starting to die off as early as the 80s. That's when the whip started being cracked in double-time, and productivity for productivity's sake and "greed is good" seemed to become the main focus of American culture.

My fear is, if those parts of Canada represent the U.S.'s past, that maybe the U.S. represents Canada's future. I certainly hope not. There are reasons Canada consistently beats the U.S. in international quality-of-life polls.

In terms of actual policy, it looks like events are going the other way around. Canada is contracting its social welfare state and increasingly replacing it with a corporate welfare state (increased military budget, cuts to healthcare services). While we're still lightyears away from a corporate welfare: social welfare ratio of the Reagan era, we're still regressing towards it.

In terms of tone, Canadian politics will always be more soft-spoken than American politics. Outside of question period, political discussions sheldom have the "shouting match" quality of US politics.

That was nice to read Chevand.

We are making a subtle shift towards more paid medical care, but I feel that has something to do with 30% of the population entering the retirement years. That was predicted over 10 years ago in boom bust and echo (a really great book). Even most Canadian Conservatives understand the value of our universal medical care.

Case in point, the start up of Sun TV, which many people on the grit and NDP side of the political spectrum label it as "Fox News North." I am a student at OttawaU. and came here from the US Pacific Northwest. Believe me, politics south of the border is much more partisan with government decisions being made more on the basis of sound-bites, slogans and hot air and less on the basis of a deliberative process through evidence and thoughtful discourse. With the recent mid-term election now behind the US, new members that have less of an apetite for consensus building will be replacing more moderate members. It is my sincere hope that Canada does not follow the US in this regard.

In the bipartisan file, I was struck that the current government, a conservative government under Stephen Harper not only would be willing, but actually followed through in appointing GAary Doer as Ambassador to Canada's most important trading partner, that of the United States. On the flip-side, however President Obama did nominate and the Senate apprived Then Utah overnor Jon Huntsman as Ambassador to China.

I do not know what the future will entail, but I hope that regardless of outcomes, the world will be in a better place. Canada and the United States included.

~CGKings317

Your comment reminded of another appointment, but now I forget who it was. It was a similar situation to Doer.

Our conservatives are to the left of your democrats in many ways, and the liberals farther past that. On certain situations there is little divide such as last summers push to change the pardon law, Bill C-23A.

People like to bring up the spectre of Tea Party movements in Canada, but again, a big corner of their platform is undesired, unpopular and moot. For instance, their abhorrence to universal health care. The genesis of that started in the western provinces and several generations of Conservative voters have lived their lives under its aegis. If they are conservative to change, thats a big change they dont want.

In any case, in Alberta in particular, citizens have long had the right to opt out: http://www.health.alberta.ca/AHCIP/Q-ho ... ister.html Unsurprisingly, you dont hear about many people doing it. I suspect it is equally true in the other provinces, though I should note that Alberta Health and Wellness collects a yearly premium directly from residents rather than a hidden tax.