You think guns are dangerous? What about mutated viruses?

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ruveyn
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22 Dec 2012, 8:19 am

The hens are cackling about firearms again particularly chickens of the Clan Little. Listen up cluck nics a panicky fowl. The sky is no falling, not just yet. Has anyone considered the possibility of some biochemical genius cooking up some nasty lethal and highly contagious viruses extracted from the blood, flesh and waste of avians? Talk about the chickens coming home to roost.

Yes, a mutated bird flu-like virus which could be developed in a home laboratory with no safety provisions and no oversight. There was a movie back a few years on that subject starring David Morse and Bruce Willis. It was called -12 Monkeys- Yes indeed, a mad scientist could equip himself at relatively low cost and by entirely legal means.

What will out panicky brethren do? Will they illegalize all scientific research, especially biology and chemistry? That is equivalent to shutting down the economy.

Twenty young kids died by gunshot. Twenty million could die by virus.

ruveyn



GGPViper
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22 Dec 2012, 8:56 am

Twenty million seems optimistic.

This is serious business, BTW.

Teams led by virologists Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka created mutated strains of bird flu (H5N1) which could potentially be used to create biological weapons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_ ... btype_H5N1

But no need to worry. This research is of course not publicly available.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... e10831.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6 ... 4.full.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6 ... 1.full.pdf

... Oops.



Jitro
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22 Dec 2012, 9:52 am

We should also quit searching for extraterrestrial bacteria in the solar system. If we find it, and humans come in contact with it, the alienness of it will wipe us out.



ruveyn
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22 Dec 2012, 10:11 am

GGPViper wrote:
Twenty million seems optimistic.

This is serious business, BTW.

Teams led by virologists Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka created mutated strains of bird flu (H5N1) which could potentially be used to create biological weapons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_ ... btype_H5N1

But no need to worry. This research is of course not publicly available.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 ... e10831.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6 ... 4.full.pdf
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/336/6 ... 1.full.pdf

... Oops.


Back in 1942 two Yeshiva boys using theoretical and mathematical reasoning alone computed correctly the critical mass of U-235. It was done with pencil and paper. The government squashed their publication pronto.

The point is, secrecy is MEANINGLESS when dealing with facts of nature. Nature has no secrets. A rogue biologist could conceivably duplicate all those results by his own private efforts.

ruveyn



richardbenson
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22 Dec 2012, 10:59 am

Yep. there defintly isnt enough to worry about in the world



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22 Dec 2012, 11:25 am

If someone could concoct a virus deadly enough, resilient enough, and contagious enough all they'd need to do is release it in a busy airport and let it do its work.

The effect isn't just the disease itself but the psychological effect on society.

The movie Contagion gives at least a sample to ponder:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sYSyuuLk5g[/youtube]


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ruveyn
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22 Dec 2012, 11:39 am

Raptor wrote:
If someone could concoct a virus deadly enough, resilient enough, and contagious enough all they'd need to do is release it in a busy airport and let it do its work.



See -12 Monkeys-. That is exactly how it was done.

ruveyn



GGPViper
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22 Dec 2012, 11:56 am

ruveyn wrote:
Raptor wrote:
If someone could concoct a virus deadly enough, resilient enough, and contagious enough all they'd need to do is release it in a busy airport and let it do its work.



See -12 Monkeys-. That is exactly how it was done.

ruveyn


Yeah, but they had David Morse too. Hard to beat pure awesomeness.



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22 Dec 2012, 12:28 pm

It would spread like wildfire here,fracking chicken houses everywhere.
On some bags of poultry feed it tells you to report sick domestic fowl.How many people are going to report a sick chicken?I've had sick birds before,sometimes antibiotics will pull them out of it,but not always.I'm not going to drive to the health dept. with a dead bird and no one I know would either.Plus anyone who feeds wild birds would catch any avian virus.
If pidgeons carried it most big cities would quickly be infected, viral carrier pidgeons.



01001011
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23 Dec 2012, 5:06 am

ruveyn wrote:
Yes, a mutated bird flu-like virus which could be developed in a home laboratory with no safety provisions and no oversight. There was a movie back a few years on that subject starring David Morse and Bruce Willis. It was called -12 Monkeys- Yes indeed, a mad scientist could equip himself at relatively low cost and by entirely legal means.

What will out panicky brethren do? Will they illegalize all scientific research, especially biology and chemistry? That is equivalent to shutting down the economy.

Twenty young kids died by gunshot. Twenty million could die by virus.

ruveyn


That is silly. How many people can pull that off? The Aum Shinrikyo had a team of university graduates and paid some 10 million but only managed to kill a few people with a well known gas.



The_Walrus
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23 Dec 2012, 9:12 am

Raptor wrote:
If someone could concoct a virus deadly enough, resilient enough, and contagious enough all they'd need to do is release it in a busy airport and let it do its work.

Yes, but that's a massive if.

If I could make shoes that allowed me to leap buildings in a single bound, then it would only take a single bound for me to leap buildings.



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23 Dec 2012, 9:44 am

Bird flu is not the path, but it would be easy to do.

It is so easy it happens in nature. The 1918 Flu killed 50,000,000. From healthy to dead in twelve hours, no treatment would work. By the time symptoms show, the damage has been done.

There is a real reason millions of chickens are killed, it is just a matter of time.

Second problem, of our making, disinfectant soaps, and drugs in the sewer. Kills some, the survivors become resistant. The last cases of flesh eating bacteria, from rivers. It used to only show up in hospitals.

Third problem, clean children living in filtered air, do not develop resistance.

There are things worse than you can think of. Possible no survivors, no one immune. The 1918 Flu killed young people, old people who had other flus were immune.

Here at the bottom of the flyway, West Nile, Equine Encefalitus, are becoming common, and with warming, Dengue is moving north. Hanta virus in the west does not kill its mouse host, just humans who come in contact with feces.

Where treatment is no longer possible only containment works, like Andromida Strain, kill them and burn the bodies.

It seems we killed off the good bacteria that were keeping the bad ones down.

Welcome to evolution!



ruveyn
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23 Dec 2012, 10:25 am

Inventor wrote:
Where treatment is no longer possible only containment works, like Andromida Strain, kill them and burn the bodies.

It seems we killed off the good bacteria that were keeping the bad ones down.

Welcome to evolution!


Time to develop viral bacteria phages (viruses that kill specified targeted bacteria). Less chance of resisting mutation to develop.

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23 Dec 2012, 3:16 pm

^as a treatment against bacteria, phages can help - but phages which have co-evolved with a specific bacterial host generally don't wipe out 100% of that host, just like bacteria or viruses which co-evolve with humans don't generally wipe out 100% of the humans. There have to be enough survivors to re-infect, and either carriers amongs the population or a reservoir of the pathogen in the environment.

In other words, phages can help a human combat a bacterial infection, but they cannot eliminate it.

Wrt. engineering a superbug: yes, surprisingly easy. Easier even than that to just to ferment up some non-engineered pathogens - wouldn't be "weaponized," but still could do some damage. Available in the environment. Could be done with ordinary household supplies (though not very safely for the creator).

One would have thought something like this was beyond the pale, but one would have thought that shooting a bunch of kindergarteners would be as well. The things preventing it from happening are that terrorists are science-phobic (not tech-phobic, but science-phobic: and biology study tends to turn out athesits), and that the work required might be more thinking and contemplation that a crazed gunman is capable of.