A Realistic Prediction - Trump and Pence

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Given the near certainty of Trump's victory in the upcoming election, it seems quite reasonable to imagine the following:

At some fairly early stage of his administration, Trump will have some sort of meltdown, and will remove himself or be removed from office. In this situation, Mike Pence will then serve as President. I believe Pence will work with Congress to bring about a Tea Party utopia. The current leadership in Congress would clearly welcome this and would be eager to take steps to bring it about, having (I believe) enough Constitutional authority to do so (arguably so, at least).

Any thoughts?

I wouldn't call a 1 in 3 chance a "near certainty". It should never have got to this stage but probability is still just about in Clinton's favour. We should be asking whether Clinton can win Arizona, Alaska, and Georgia, but instead we're asking whether Trump can win New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Carolina.

A Pence presidency would be a disaster for America, particularly if a Republican congress were more willing to support him than Trump. Pence's views on climate change, LGBT+ rights (particularly conversion therapy), abortion, stem cells, sex education, mandatory minimum sentences for drug crime, Guantanamo Bay, and the PATRIOT Act make him a thoroughly unsuitable candidate for President, and frankly a deplorable person.

I see a few advantages to Pence over Trump. Firstly, he is a highly experienced politician who will not present a threat to international security. Secondly, he has advocated standing up to Russia's imperialist foreign policy and ending the war in Syria. Thirdly, he is pro-trade and pro-capitalist.

The advantages that Clinton has over Pence are that she has all of his strengths but few of his weaknesses.

If, for some reason, Trump is a lame duck, or preempted from office, I believe that warring minority groups, engaging in identity politics, will be eachothers' worst enemies, by far. BLM and La Raza have more to fear in eachother than an effete bourgeoisie, giggling at potty talk, and gentrifying the barrio with thematic coffee shops.

Yeah, I get the feeling that Trump doesn't want to actually work as president. Some conspiracy theorists seem to think he ran for the whole purpose of exposing corruption in government. I think they are giving him too much credit, although he might be successful in doing so nonetheless. I don't usually buy into "conspiracy theories" but I think there might be some truth to this one. As an outsider to politics, he is in a unique position where he knows a lot personally about highly influential politicians without being loyal to them.

I think there's some very shady stuff going on in the White House. Maybe Trump knows more than we give him credit for. I hope that Trump will step down or get impeached if he becomes president. I really think no matter who gets put in officer they are going to end up getting impeached at some point ( or resign).

Hillary will get away with whatever she is guilty of, It is has been pronounced the Clintons have finally been caught for 24 years now, why would the next 4 to 8 years be any different?

A 1 in 3 chance is effectively a toss-up. In my experience, close Presidential races are always won by Republicans. The electoral system favors Republicans in ways that don't seem to be reflected by the polls. The only "recent" exception I can think of is Kennedy vs. Nixon, which Kennedy may have won due to election fraud.

Trump has an excellent chance of winning, which may under the circumstances mean that his victory is, in fact, likely.

By winning I mean the Electoral College. I would bet money that Hillary will win a plurality of the popular vote, as did Gore in 2000.

It depends how you define "close". 2012 was close in the national polls, but Obama won the electoral college comfortably. Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford in a close race. The only Republican to win a close race in that time is Dubya. I don't find this "close" category especially meaningful, but it looks like Democrats do slightly better in them than Republicans.

1 in 3 is a good chance considering (it's surely much better than some of the disastrous campaigns in the mid 20th century) but it is still a long way from "near certainty" or even "likely".

There's about a 1 in 4 chance of Trump winning the popular vote, and a 1 in 10 chance of Clinton winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college.

Trump's best hope is Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

In other states, the early black voting turnout is lower.

And the pundits are saying blacks are voting 2x more for Trump than Romney (based on surveys I think).

Michigan, has a Republican governor, Senate, and House, so Michigan is a Republican voting state, so Trump has a reasonable chance.

However, Latino vote is surging, so likely Trump losses Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, and Florida will be tough.

I am not so sure Trump will win.

If he is elected, he is likely to be the first president impeached AND removed from office. Both the Democrats and the core Republicans despise him. Congress will not permit him the extremes that he promised. The Donald is going to find out (the hard way) that the Constitution does not permit him to play Let's Make a Deal.

Government is not the Boardwalk were he sells his gaudy hotels and gambling casinos.

Well FWIW it would seem I was right about Trump winning. Can't tell about the rest of it, though!

buckle your seatbelts, gentlemen- it's gonna be a bumpy ride.