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Scaramouche
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26 Apr 2006, 10:52 am

News

Cost of Iraq war could surpass $1 trillion

Iraqis face a more brutal life with each passing month

One year after war, security is greatest concern for Iraqis

War worse for Iraq than Saddam

Three years later: Insecurity, instability and hope in Iraq

Children 'starving' in new Iraq

IRAQ: Saddam Better for Women

The New Iraq? Torture and ill-treatment of detainees in Iraqi custody

Analysis: New Iraq government clone of old

The New Iraq War Strategy: More Bombings, More Civilian Deaths ...

Iraq was safer under Saddam

ABC News: Iraqi Death Toll Much Higher Than US

The Facts in Iraq

The New al-Qaeda: More Dangerous Than the Old Version

Iraq War Made World More Dangerous

IRAQ: Destruction Easier Than Reconstruction

CIAs final report: No WMD found in Iraq - Conflict in Iraq ...

CNN.com - Iraq drives Bush's rating to new low - Mar 14, 2006

Destruction of Holiest Shia Shrine Brings Iraq to the Brink of...

Demolishing the WMD Myth - 01/30/2006

Bush says US troops to remain in Iraq indefinitely

Iraq unemployment

Iraq: Electricity Cuts An Ongoing Headache For Baghdad Residents

Iraq - Water and Sanitation

Where are Iraq's women?

Report probes US custody deaths

Pentagon: Iraqi troops downgraded

NGO Reports

Iraq: Civilians under fire

Iraq: The terrible toll of war

Amnesty International's reports

ICRC's reports and news

However...

I do know there are some good things happening there as well. Such as US contractors rebuilding water and power supplies and schools. But keep in mind that those things need rebuilding because the invaders blew them up.



gortex6
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26 Apr 2006, 7:20 pm

It is not a failure.

Since about October/December 2005, the tactics have changed drastically. There is a more culture centric tactical mindset, emphasizing de-escalation of force. As a result, the Coalition casualty rate decreased at a gradual rate to bottom out at 31 deaths in March 2006- It has not been this low since about Sept 2003. The recent spike is most likely because counter terror operations have been ramped up to rock the insurgents back on their heels. Units are also rotating home and being replaced with inexperienced units; they have yet to "learn" to navigate the cultural topography and create trust with the local leaders. Insurgents also test new unit's with pulsing attacks to probe for weeknesses.

You have to realize that insurgency strategy is dependent upon provokation. They will instigate over-reaction from coalition and Iraqi defence forces in order to polarize the neutral masses to join their cause. They want to anger us and demoralize us with hurrassment through standoff weaponry: IEDs, snipers, and mortar fire, denying us a decisive engagement. Driving car bombs, they will sneek up to convoys and detonate without warning; because of this, poorly disciplined soldiers allow emotions to succomb their decision making process, over-reacting by shooting whatever approaches the convoy. Unless you have had to peel your buddies guts off the hot desert concrete you probably won't understand. In Arab culture it is believed if we kill somebody, even if it was an accident, the family, clan, and tribe has the god given right to avenge the death or forgoe the groups honor; this is called a "blood fued". They also have a koranic code stating if any muslim shows up at their front doorstep asking for asylum, they have the duty to give him shelter, food, and protection- even if blood enemies- this is how foreign jihadists seek refuge in Iraq- if we kill them, the household is obliged to avenge the death of their patron. It is also how the insurgency respawns itself. The insurgents are the most vile oponent, they use their own people as cannon fodder to gain support. They blow up water plants, energy plants, kill mailmen, kill trashmen, blow up oil pipelines, destroy sewage plants, and pretty much every else that is public utility to anger their country and make us appear incompetant

in other words ....Grab a snickers- we are going to be there a while. Counterinsurgency takes time.



Last edited by gortex6 on 28 Apr 2006, 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Scaramouche
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26 Apr 2006, 8:16 pm

gortex6 wrote:

You have to realize that insurgency strategy is dependent upon provokation.

There is no single insurgency strategy. They aren't one unified force. It's a bunch of separate forces at war with the USA and each other. Some attack the USA. Some attack different tribes. Some attack different religions. Some attack civilians. Some restrict their attacks to military targets. Some want revenge for deaths caused by the USA invasion. Some wants the USA out due to simple nationalism and defending their country. Some want power for themselves and their own little version of faith. There are all sorts of reasons, and all sorts of groups, doing all sorts of things.



Scaramouche
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26 Apr 2006, 8:20 pm

By the way...

Quote:
Nearly 25, 000 civilians have been killed since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, a US-British non-governmental organisation says, based on survey of media reports.

The Iraq Body Count survey blames 37 per cent of the deaths on US-led forces, an assertion denied by the US military.

Insurgents caused only 9.5 per cent of the deaths, the survey says, but criminal gangs that were often hard to distinguish from insurgents accounted for 36 per cent. Neil MacDonald, Baghdad.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/70d21a2c-f8bb- ... 511c8.html


Quote:
The report, which was brought out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an independent think tank, says that foreign militants - mainly from Algeria, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia - account for less than 10% he estimated 30,000 insurgents in Iraq.

"The pattern of detainments and intelligence analysis indicates that the total number of foreign volunteers is well below 10% and may well be closer to 4-6%" the study says.

http://www.csis.org/features/050927_civilwar.pdf


Quote:
Of the roughly 2,929 terrorism-related deaths around the world since the attacks on New York and Washington, the NBC News analysis shows 58 percent of them — 1,709 — have occurred this year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5889435

The figure for civilian deaths in Iraq has now risen to more than 29,000. If 37% are attributed to the US military, that's 10,730. Since and including the WTC attacks in the USA, almost 6,000 people around the world have been killed by Muslim terrorists. Yep, that's right, the US military is racking up almost twice as many kills against civilians.

However, I know that those deaths caused by the USA military are mostly due to negligence rather than homicidal intent. But I really don't think that difference makes the victims any less dead.



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26 Apr 2006, 8:42 pm

Scaramouche wrote:
The figure for civilian deaths in Iraq has now risen to more than 29,000. If 37% are attributed to the US military, that's 10,730. Since and including the WTC attacks in the USA, almost 6,000 people around the world have been killed by Muslim terrorists. Yep, that's right, the US military is racking up almost twice as many kills against civilians.

However, I know that those deaths caused by the USA military are mostly due to negligence rather than homicidal intent. But I really don't think that difference makes the victims any less dead.


What you're ignoring here is how many people Sadam Hussein murdered. Is'nt that figure about 400,000???

There's lots of things you post ignores,distorts or fabricates. It's just a propoganda piece. :twisted:


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Scaramouche
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27 Apr 2006, 8:05 am

Scrapheap wrote:

What you're ignoring here is how many people Sadam Hussein murdered. Is'nt that figure about 400,000???

There's lots of things you post ignores,distorts or fabricates. It's just a propoganda piece. :twisted:


Actually that was another of the Bush regime's lies. There are indeed mass graves in Iraq. They are filled with the dead from Desert Storm. Mostly those who, at the urging of the USA and allied forces, rose up against Saddam Hussein with the promise of outside assistance. They rose up. They were left to fight unsupported. Saddam Hussein, having now clearly identified rebel elements in Iraq, killed them all. In all, about five thousand corpses. The claims of hundreds of thousands are simply false, which England's Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted.

Quote:
Downing Street has admitted to The Observer that repeated claims by Tony Blair that '400,000 bodies had been found in Iraqi mass graves' is untrue, and only about 5,000 corpses have so far been uncovered.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics ... 30,00.html

Quote:
Downing Street has admitted to The Observer that repeated claims by [British prime minister] Tony Blair (above) that '400,000 bodies had been found in Iraqi mass graves' is [sic. are] untrue, and only about 5,000 corpses have so far been uncovered.

http://www.fpp.co.uk/online/04/07/Iraq_ ... enied.html

Quote:
Prime Minister Tony Blair’s office admitted that he exaggerated the number of bodies found in mass graves throughout Iraq by about 88 percent. The Observer revealed June 18 that its own calculations found that 5,000 bodies have been recovered from 55 gravesites; according to the British publication, Downing Street has confirmed the number. The Observer notes that an additional 215 suspected mass gravesites have yet to be examined and confirmed.

During a joint press conference held by Prime Minister Blair and President George W. Bush last year in London, Blair admonished critics of the countries' actions against Iraq, stating: "When we've already discovered just so far the remains of 400,000 people in mass graves -- there is something bizarre about these situations happening, and people saying that they disagree..."

Blair's claim was widely used as further justification for deposing Saddam Hussein. A graphic report from the US Agency for International Development (USAID) released this January entitled "Iraq’s Legacy of Terror: Mass Graves" features the claim on its first page. A USAID press release dated June 15 also contains Blair's assertion.

http://newstandardnews.net/content/?act ... itemid=717

Quote:
The number of deaths attributed to Saddam Hussein by the West is incomprehensible. If you add them all up, it seems he killed more people than the number who inhabit Iraq. He had to work overtime and must have had advanced weaponry of which no one is aware.

Numbers and techniques abound: 180,000 during the Anfal campaign (Despite the numbers, not one body has been found. Maybe Saddam had a secret vaporizing ray); 5,000 in Halabja (About 300 bodies were found and there is much doubt as to the origin of the gas used against the Kurds); 400,000 in the south of Iraq.

Let’s talk about the 400,000. In November 2003, word came out that more than 400,000 bodies had been discovered in mass graves in the south of Iraq. "The whole country is a mass graveyard" was the slogan of the day. Finally, proof of Saddam being the Butcher of Baghdad was there for the whole world to see. Case closed.

Let’s go forward a few months from the discovery of the almost half million bodies in the south of Iraq. On July 18, 2004, the headline of the day for the British paper The Independent read, "British Prime Minister Admits Graves Claim Untrue." How could that be? George Bush and Tony Blair don’t lie. If we can’t trust them, who can we trust? Certainly not Saddam, even though he told the truth about WMD. That must have been a fluke.


According to the article:

Downing Street has admitted to The Observer that repeated claims by Tony Blair that "about 400,000 bodies had been found in Iraqi mass graves" is untrue, and only about 5,000 corpses have so far been uncovered.

The claims by Blair in November and December of last year (2003) were given widespread credence, quoted by MPs and widely published, including in the introduction to a U.S. government pamphlet on Iraq’s mass graves.

In that publication, Iraq’s Legacy of Terror: Mass Graves, produced by USAID, the U.S. government aid distribution agency, Blair is quoted from 20 November last year: We’ve already discovered, just so far, the remains of 400,000 people in mass graves."


Here’s what the USAID website stated:

If these numbers prove accurate, they represent a crime against humanity surpassed only by the Rwandan genocide of 1994, Pol Pot’s Cambodian killing fields in the 1970s, and the Nazi Holocaust of World War II.

I assume that USAID did not hear about the two million Iraqis who died at the hands of the U.S.-imposed embargo from 1990-2003. After all, they’re Iraqis: they don’t count.

The same article delved into the regression of other elevated figures attributed to Saddam Hussein and the Ba’ath regime in the north of the country. For instance, it mentioned that Human Rights Watch admitted it had to drastically decrease figures of deaths.

The irony here is that not one person went to the north of Iraq to corroborate the figures. Human Rights Watch and other groups just took the figures given to them as accurate. Hania Mufti, who performed research that produced the original inflated figures in the north stated: "Our estimates were based on estimates. The eventual figure was based in part on circumstantial information gathered over the years."

Imagine even the most lowly offense being tried in a U.S. court system and the prosecutor said that his case was based on estimates of estimates. The case would be dismissed and the judge would reprimand the prosecution for even making a case.

However, this is not so with Iraq. Just say "Saddam did it" and affix a preposterous scenario and figures and it is taken for truth. The blood of millions of Iraqis lies on the hands of these despicable groups and people who have tried to outdo themselves in demonizing Saddam Hussein, the Ba’ath Party, and the Iraqi public in general.

The list is long: Human Rights Watch; Amnesty International; all the foreign-domiciled Iraqi stooges who came back to Iraq after April 2003; with the exception of a few individuals, the entire U.S. government (Democrat and Republican alike); Tony Blair; the U.S. mainstream media; and many, many, many more. They all are involved in the mass murder of millions of Iraqis.

The date of July 18, 2004 should be heralded as much as other dates in world history. It was the date on which the truth about Iraqi mass graves was published. However, not one word appeared in the U.S. press. And, within a day or two, Blair quickly changed directions and came up with other ploys to downplay the announcement that he had lied on a massive scale.

If we take a look at the existing 5,000 bodies, most, if not all, are males of military age. It is probable that many were killed by U.S. bombs in Desert Storm. If you look at a map, you will see that the south of Iraq was heavily bombed in January and February 1991. Add to that the possibility of some bodies being from the Iraqi army that fought the 1991 Shi’ite attempt at overthrowing the Iraqi government and we see that the number of innocent civilians killed by Saddam has quickly decreased from 400,000 to many less than 5,000, if any.

The statement "history is written by the victors" is only partially true in the case of Iraq. Here, fairy tales of the most outrageous kind have been written under the guise of history.

Remember July 18, 2004.

http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/article/64041



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27 Apr 2006, 11:26 am

Scaramouche wrote:
The figure for civilian deaths in Iraq has now risen to more than 29,000.


i dont know where this figure comes from, but it seems a bit on the conservative side. according to the lancet, over 100 000 civilian deaths, and that report was written in 2004.

thelancet wrote:
Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence


http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lance ... 2/abstract

note: you need to register to read the article, but it is free.



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27 Apr 2006, 12:04 pm

I don't believe Iraq being invaded has failed. But it depends apon what you measure as success. If success equates to landing the troops, holding key military points within the country's city, and keeping the country from falling into complete civil war then it has succeeded (so far).

In finding the weapons of mass invisibility or finding a corrupted terrorist leader, they were less than ineffective.

Innocent lives were and would have been taken in each of the paths of invasion or non-invasion. It is the outcome of how many lives are saved overall that defines the victory. We can never truly compare the tally of human deaths each of these leaders have facilitated.


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gortex6
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28 Apr 2006, 5:52 pm

Scaramouche wrote:
gortex6 wrote:

You have to realize that insurgency strategy is dependent upon provokation.

There is no single insurgency strategy. They aren't one unified force. It's a bunch of separate forces at war with the USA and each other. Some attack the USA. Some attack different tribes. Some attack different religions. Some attack civilians. Some restrict their attacks to military targets. Some want revenge for deaths caused by the USA invasion. Some wants the USA out due to simple nationalism and defending their country. Some want power for themselves and their own little version of faith. There are all sorts of reasons, and all sorts of groups, doing all sorts of things.


I agree, the overall insurgency in Iraq is structurally flat and open sourced; they thrive on chaos. Their collusion is a marriage of convenience (and a fault line to be exploited). However, we are a large bureaucratic heirarchy trying to fight a decentralized network of autonomi; this is like a large gas guzzling bus trying to outmaneuver a swarm of hybrid cars.

Quote:
However, I know that those deaths caused by the USA military are mostly due to negligence rather than homicidal intent.


This negligence is caused by bureaucratic overburdening, hindering our organizational learning curve. Our training has always been around Clauswitzian dogma and Jominian hubris. Disregarding the cultural implications, we are always taught to seek the decisive physical engagement and use superior force; we were still trying to fight the Russians through the Fulde Gap! (Most of my time prepairing for Iraq was spent waiting on ammo to arrive at ranges.) According to the news, tactics and training are changing course and evolving in the right direction; this can be noted with the recent trough in coalition casualties. Due to the efficient compositional structure of the insurgency, they rapidly adapt, but with de-escalation tactics the rock of sisyphus will ultimately diminish.



Last edited by gortex6 on 28 Apr 2006, 6:44 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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28 Apr 2006, 10:55 pm

By negligence, I was referring more to the idea of considering it acceptable to attack targets withni a city when you know you've got a 15% error rate, for example. As in "We aimed for the ammo dump, but if we kill a hundred civilians, well, war is hell, killing civilians happens, and it's just colateral damage..." Not giving a crap and shooting anyway, regardless of civilians being in the area, is negligent homicide.

As for collusion among insurgents, remember that half the time they're attacking each other rather than the invaders.

Maybe they'll be worn down, maybe it'll get worse. Only time will tell, I guess.



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28 Apr 2006, 11:37 pm

By the way, when speaking of negligent homicide, I was referrnig to what you folks might call second degree murder:

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Second-degree murder is ordinarily defined as 1) an intentional killing that is not premeditated or planned, nor committed in a reasonable "heat of passion" or 2) a killing caused by dangerous conduct and the offender's obvious lack of concern for human life. Second-degree murder may best be viewed as the middle ground between first-degree murder and voluntary manslaughter.

For example, Dan comes home to find his wife in bed with Victor. At a stoplight the next day, Dan sees Victor riding in the passenger seat of a nearby car. Dan pulls out a gun and fires three shots into the car, missing Victor but killing the driver of the car.

http://criminal.findlaw.com/crimes/a-z/ ... egree.html


Quote:
A non-premeditated killing, resulting from an assault in which death of the victim was a distinct possibility. Second degree murder is different from first degree murder, which is a premeditated, intentional killing or results from a vicious crime such as arson, rape or armed robbery. Exact distinctions on degree vary by state.

http://dictionary.law.com/default2.asp? ... C%7C%7C%7C



Scaramouche
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29 Apr 2006, 2:14 am

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29 Apr 2006, 6:09 am

Yonae wrote:
I don't believe Iraq being invaded has failed. But it depends apon what you measure as success.

Or on what you measure as failure. Bush urged the rest of the government (and the people) to support the war at least in part by claiming it would only cost about $3,000,000,000 and last only a few months. The price tag as of today is more than $800,000,000,000 and there's no end in sight. Adjusted for inflation, the Iraq war has cost almost twice what the USA spent on the war in Vietnam. And now the military machine is starting to sell the idea of a war in Iran....


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29 Apr 2006, 6:39 am

And people are SURPRISED the Iraq invasion was a SNAFU?

While Saddam Hussein was a tyrant, and should have been removed, the method used was like using a chainsaw to remove a brain tumour. Iraq is now worse off than under Hussein. The invasion will (and already) has fuelled the Muslim extremists call for Jihad, which, BTW, apparently means "proselytising" rather than literally "holy war". What's worse, people equate "terrorist" with "Muslim". While I am myself not a Muslim, and acknowledge that many Muslims have done terrible things (honour killings and of course terrorism), a terrorist can mean anyone who decides to use terror to their own ends.

Iran itself is dangerous, but not immediately so. The UN must not allow themselves to become a rubber-stamper for the US (or rather, the businessmen who influence US policy, both American and foreign) to do whatever the hell it pleases.

I remember what, at the start of the Cold War, a US politician said:

"The aim now is not to make the world safe for democracy, but rather to make the world safe for the US."

Roman.

Greek.

Russian.

British.

And now we are seeing the rise of the American Empire.



gortex6
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01 May 2006, 11:35 am

Scaramouche wrote:


yup, the rock of sisyphus.



Last edited by gortex6 on 01 May 2006, 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

gortex6
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01 May 2006, 11:41 am

Scaramouche wrote:
By negligence, I was referring more to the idea of considering it acceptable to attack targets withni a city when you know you've got a 15% error rate, for example. As in "We aimed for the ammo dump, but if we kill a hundred civilians, well, war is hell, killing civilians happens, and it's just colateral damage..." Not giving a crap and shooting anyway, regardless of civilians being in the area, is negligent homicide.

As for collusion among insurgents, remember that half the time they're attacking each other rather than the invaders.

Maybe they'll be worn down, maybe it'll get worse. Only time will tell, I guess.


We have learned the hard way. Instead of attacking the village, we are inside the village playing beat cop and developing trust. Over time, we will fall under the umbrella of protection from the community. Nobody will want anything bad to happen to their "bobby" :wink: