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Jakki
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01 Mar 2023, 9:03 am

Am thinking perhaps Putin had considered these impending situations and obviously has secured supply lines from Iran and
China already , And from my observations inthe US news that these are established . And any surrounding Countries he has indirect control over . So am not so convinced about how damaging the sanctions have been . And already
has been able to support a Military in the feild. Quite sure Putin has a well established propaganda campaign in place . To benefit the hearts and minds of his countrymen and supporters . Seem obvious to me that he feilded pretty much fresh recruits into his actions in Ukraine . So am thinking as any competent leader might do , he maybe holding his more seasoned troops and equipment in reserve .. Am not willing to underestimate the capabilities of his Military .
idk if has feilded any hypersonic weapons yet . But all these great capable Tanks we are feilding. Most likely will not be able to track incoming hypersonic missiles . And mobile lauchers will move immediately after firing . So as to make for harder targeting. And as he has seen how this War goes , he probably is in it for the long game ( for the glory of Russia) Ukraines offensives have only been against Russians in there own territories , The Russians will merely feel the effects of Inflation , until Ukrainian forces actually go into the motherland of Russia. Hitler did not give up but let his actually country get victimized by War. Putin seems no different to me. Meanwhile the Corporations get to use up older military equipment , so they can get more orders for replacement and development
of Worse weapons of War. ( The obvious winners in War) IMHO


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magz
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01 Mar 2023, 10:06 am

1. "Securing" supply lines from Iran and China is rather an overstatement. "Establishing" - yes. But these lines are definitely not secure and dependent on tricky politics with other dictators.
2. Bypassing sanctions is certain and large-scale, for sure. Main players are probably "neutral" states like India and Central Asian republics, that can buy and re-export goods from Russia.
3. Let's not underestimate Russian army but also let's not overestimate it. It has its strengths (numbers) and weaknesses (organization).
4. Hypersonic rockets have been used, no existing air defense is effective against them - but there are very little of them, so the damage they can do is limited. Other kinds of rockets are with varying effectiveness countered by air defense systems Ukraine got in great numbers. Effectiveness of this air defense can be seen by how new damage on civilian infrastructure deep in the country has been greatly limited since Autumn.
5. Tanks are quite an independent topic. Ukrainians will need them - with their units trained and organized to use them effectively - to launch a counter-offensive once the steppe mud dries in the spring.

One of pootin's heroes is Stalin... who pushed millions of poorly trained, poorly equipped Soviet soldiers to die so the frontlines could move. I don't think putler wants to repeat it 1-1 but we need to give a moment to a thought of what he finds reasonable or not. It may differ from our understanding of these terms.


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The_Walrus
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01 Mar 2023, 4:25 pm

Jakki wrote:
So am thinking as any competent leader might do , he maybe holding his more seasoned troops and equipment in reserve

That doesn't seem to actually be the case. Putin committed all his best forces early on. His strategy was to conquer Kyiv very quickly and overthrow the government. Russia has struggled to make the same sorts of gains it made in the early days of the invasion. They had to introduce conscription to make up for the loss of professional soldiers. New arrivals are untrained and under-resourced.

Conventional strategy would have been to send one wave of troops in the initial invasion, then reinforce them with a second wave a few days later. Putin did not do that. He committed all his troops early, and was not able to reinforce his positions. If he was really holding seasoned troops in reserve then he would have used them by now, rather than losing so much ground.



magz
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01 Mar 2023, 4:46 pm

Right now, it's unreasonable to launch a big offensive either way, because of General Mud.
Ukrainians are certainly preparing their best troops and trying to get as much new equipment as they can, including the famous Leopard Coalition.
I'm not sure about Russians. They often act against the basics of strategy. Wulhedar seems like another Chornobayivka, where they make the same mistakes over and over again, losing a lot of equipment. Troops around Bakhmut are said to be much more competent and they seem to have plenty of ammo.

The original plan of Russians wasn't completely stupid but it failed and there was no backup plan and no way back for pootin.


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Fnord
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01 Mar 2023, 10:30 pm

The_Walrus wrote:
Jakki wrote:
So am thinking as any competent leader might do, he may be holding his more seasoned troops and equipment in reserve.
That doesn't seem to actually be the case.  Putin committed all his best forces early on.  His strategy was to conquer Kyiv very quickly and overthrow the government. . .
The Russian equivalent of "Shock and Awe", perhaps?



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02 Mar 2023, 5:03 am

magz wrote:
Right now, it's unreasonable to launch a big offensive either way, because of General Mud.
Ukrainians are certainly preparing their best troops and trying to get as much new equipment as they can, including the famous Leopard Coalition.
I'm not sure about Russians. They often act against the basics of strategy. Wulhedar seems like another Chornobayivka, where they make the same mistakes over and over again, losing a lot of equipment. Troops around Bakhmut are said to be much more competent and they seem to have plenty of ammo.

The original plan of Russians wasn't completely stupid but it failed and there was no backup plan and no way back for pootin.


The Wagner "orchestra".



magz
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02 Mar 2023, 5:07 am

Fnord wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
Jakki wrote:
So am thinking as any competent leader might do, he may be holding his more seasoned troops and equipment in reserve.
That doesn't seem to actually be the case.  Putin committed all his best forces early on.  His strategy was to conquer Kyiv very quickly and overthrow the government. . .
The Russian equivalent of "Shock and Awe", perhaps?
Performed by The Second Army in The World :lmao:

From what I managed to gather, pootin probably genuinely believed Ukrainian government was unstable, the comedian president did not deserve any attention and the population would welcome their "liberators".

That happens to bully managers - no one dares to bring the bad news to them until it's too late...


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Pepe
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02 Mar 2023, 11:20 pm

magz wrote:
Fnord wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
Jakki wrote:
So am thinking as any competent leader might do, he may be holding his more seasoned troops and equipment in reserve.
That doesn't seem to actually be the case.  Putin committed all his best forces early on.  His strategy was to conquer Kyiv very quickly and overthrow the government. . .
The Russian equivalent of "Shock and Awe", perhaps?
Performed by The Second Army in The World :lmao:

From what I managed to gather, pootin probably genuinely believed Ukrainian government was unstable, the comedian president did not deserve any attention and the population would welcome their "liberators".

That happens to bully managers - no one dares to bring the bad news to them until it's too late...


Poor pootin. <comfort psychopathic murdering bastardo>