Israel and Iran ‘A fork in the road’

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Since October 7, Israeli citizens have been holding their collective breath, knowing that the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and incessant fire exchanges on the northern border could escalate into a full-scale regional war at any moment.

The mysterious attack in Lebanon on Tuesday, in which thousands of pagers in the use of Hezbollah operatives exploded, apparently killing at least 11 and wounding thousands more, has made that possibility more likely than ever.

A war with the Iranian-backed militia to Israel’s north could quickly expand into war with Iran, which has yet to avenge the assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July, despite Islamic Republic leaders vowing a response.

Israel, in turn, stated it would exact a heavy price from the Iranian regime were it to carry out a significant attack against the Jewish state.

Maj-Gen. (res.) Itzhak Brik is adamant that war with Iran now would lead to Israel’s destruction.
Security expert Yair Ansbacher is convinced that war with Iran at this point is a must – to avoid Israel’s destruction.

This is the fork in the road that Israel faces today, 11 months after Hamas initiated the horrific October 7 attack, in which 1,200 Israelis and other nationals were murdered and 250 more were taken hostage.

Additional factors such as the apparent exhaustion of negotiations between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire agreement, and the Israeli government’s decision earlier in the week to make the return of displaced northern residents an official war goal, have increased the likelihood of a regional war.

Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the phone earlier in the week, Brik warned that Israel is not prepared for a multifront war.

“Iran and its proxies have 250,000 missiles, rockets, and drones encircling Israel. Which means about 4,000 munitions hitting the Israeli home front on a daily basis: population centers, Haifa Bay, water and electricity facilities, gas fields [in the Mediterranean Sea], IDF bases, and strategic civilian infrastructure. A regional war can ruin the State of Israel,” he stressed.

Brik further warned that Israel would enter this all-out war alone, without the aid of the United States.

“Iran is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, who don’t want to lose their [Iranian] asset,” he said, explaining that the US will avoid getting involved in a war that could develop into a world war.

What Israel should do, he advised, is build a strategic alliance with Western and moderate Arab nations that will form a “deterrence balance” against Iran and its partners. Trying to thwart the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capacity is futile, he added, which “is a development that can’t be stopped.”

Ansbacher views the situation differently. He is certain that now is the right time to strike Iran, before it makes its final nuclear breakthrough.

“If today the West has little success in taming the ayatollahs, it will have zero success when they obtain nuclear weapons,” he said via Zoom with the Post last week.

“Iran will provide a nuclear umbrella to terrorists across the globe. Imagine Hezbollah kidnaps [IDF] soldiers on [Israel’s] northern border, and before Israel launches a rescue operation, Hezbollah sends a message that this could result in a nonconventional missile attack. This is a scenario that we cannot accept,” Ansbacher stipulated.

In addition, the possibility of a hostile US administration come the November election, along with the inferior position Iran found itself in after the October 7 attack – exposing its plan to annihilate Israel – means that Jerusalem must now use this narrow opportunity to strike Iran, he noted.

“Tehran’s original plan was to attack Israel simultaneously [on all fronts], and that would have brought us to the brink of extinction. But their plan was disrupted when [Hamas head] Yahya Sinwar jumped the gun. This puts Iran in a weakened position. If the plan had fully worked, Israel would have been caught unawares, with all arms of the octopus around its neck. Then it’s checkmate. But the plan’s disadvantage was its extended period of implementation where many things could go wrong,” Ansbacher said.

Attacking Iran now is Israel’s last chance before it faces an existential threat of a nuclear Islamic Republic, he stressed. If Israel hits Iran in its two centers of power, Tehran and Qom, he added, the Iranian regime, largely unsupported by the nonreligious population, will very likely fall.

The 'prophet of wrath'
Brik, 76, is a decorated IDF general who fought in the Yom Kippur War in 1973. He was badly burned in the face from a flare of an anti-tank missile when a tank company under his command encountered Egyptian commandos in the Sinai Peninsula. Despite his wound he regained control over the battlefield and destroyed the commando company.

In 2008, he served as IDF ombudsman, and it is during this 10-year tenure that Brik gained the public image of a “prophet of wrath.”

Formulating scathing reports in his new role, he argued that budget constraints compelled irresponsible cuts in the IDF’s size. He warned that IDF ground forces could not fight on more than one front, and accused the military of bolstering the air force at the expense of other military corps.

Many considered Brik’s criticisms exaggerated, even if partly true. Others viewed him as a scaremonger with questionable motives. But October 7 made many say that he was right all along.

“Over the past 20 years, we reduced the [IDF] by six divisions, thousands of tanks, 50% of artillery shells; and we narrowed our infantry capacity,” Brik told Post.

“IDF chiefs spoke of a ‘small, technological, and smart military.’ They declared that the big wars are over with; we have peace with Egypt, we have peace with Jordan, the Syrians are irrelevant – hence we can cut the military and erode its ground forces,” he lamented.

“If Israel can’t handle Hamas,” he continued, “because it doesn’t have enough manpower to stay in Gaza, imagine what would happen in a war on five fronts.”

Brik stated that if a regional war broke out, Israel could face enemies from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and the West Bank, including radical Arab Israelis who could be called into action within Israel.

“God forbid if the Egyptians decided to join in, too.”

Brik noted that pro-Iranian militias are awaiting Iran’s orders in Syria, while the Syrian Army is rebuilding itself. Meanwhile, the 300 kilometers-long Jordan-Israel border is “practically defenseless,” he added. “Hundreds of thousands of weapons are being smuggled from Iran through the Jordan border into Israel and the West Bank. Iran is forming pro-Iranian militias inside the Hashemite Kingdom, which are underground for now.”

One of Israel’s biggest problems, Brik relayed, is its ammunition shortages.

“Bullets, tanks, artillery shells – all missing. Emergency warehouses that the US held here in Israel were delivered to Ukraine,” he said.

Iran’s 'brilliant' strategy
Ansbacher, 41, was a fighter in Maglan, an IDF commando unit part of the 89th “Oz” Brigade.
He served as an adviser in the Defense Ministry and in the IDF, and wrote his doctoral dissertation on the contribution of special operations forces in modern warfare.

His attitude toward Iran is that of cautious optimism. He respects it as a formidable enemy, but believes that, ultimately, Israel has the upper hand.

“What is so dangerous about Iran, which is a terrible and menacing foe, is that it combines wisdom with extreme religion,” Ansbacher said.

“On the one hand the Iranians have great pride in their ancient civilization, including the ayatollahs, with imperialist aspirations in their DNA, and on the other hand they are radically religious. Their mullahs pass very cruel religious rulings... like sending young women into prison for esoteric reasons, then raping them so they don’t reach heaven when they die. These are the kind of insane things that they do in the name of religion.

“They are also very fond of technology and progress. Unlike other peoples in the region, their technological and scientific capabilities are advanced. They strive for knowledge, they studied in top universities across the West, and they studied the West as well. Unlike us who don’t understand other cultures too well, they understand modern liberal culture, including its fears,” he stipulated.

As for Iran’s strategy against Israel, Ansbacher said it was “brilliantly” executed.
“Iran built three circles of threats around Israel.

“The first is its proxies comprising militias and terrorist armies, ready to invade Israel when given the order, and also to deter Israel from attacking the Iranian nuclear facilities.

“The second threat is its large arsenal of rockets. [Former Mossad head] Yossi Cohen named it the “ring of fire,” which consists of rockets, missiles, drones, and other munitions,” Ansbacher noted.

“The idea is to attack Israel from all directions and cover every piece of land with rocket fire,” he added.

“The third threat, which is the most strategic and critical, is to place Iran and terrorist acts under the protection of nuclear weapons.”

Projectiles – not a strategic threat
Although Ansbacher considers a nuclear Iran a grave threat, he wished to dispel some of the misconceptions about Iran’s military strength.

“Missiles are scary. They cause damage. Precision missiles can hit infrastructure and cause serious economic damage. They even kill. But statistics show that they do not annihilate. Israel was hit throughout its history with enormous quantities of rockets, missiles, and shells. At the end of the day, projectiles are not a strategic [threat],” Ansbacher emphasized.

Hebrew media reported that on October 7 Hamas launched the largest rocket attack on Israel in its history, consisting of about 3,000 rockets in four hours and almost 10,000 in one month. For context, Hezbollah launched 4,400 rockets in the 34 days of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.“I believe that 10 people died from the rocket attack on October 7,” Ansbacher said.

“And you know how many died from the ground invasion. So rockets are mainly a psychological threat. And unfortunately, it works, because for years Israel was deterred from preemptively striking Gaza and Lebanon.

It’s not that I like the prospect of rockets exploding in Tel Aviv, but I also understand the full context of their damage.”

He further mentioned that launching great numbers of projectiles requires thousands of operatives, which to maintain on a daily basis in time of war is extremely challenging and requires many resources.

Ansbacher pointed to the Gulf War in 1991, in which Iraq launched approximately 44 ballistic missiles at Israel.

“Coalition forces hunted down the Scud launchers and missiles and made life very difficult for the Iraqis. Also, the logistics of preparing and launching ballistic missiles is complex. These ‘fat’ targets can be detected by Israeli and Western eyes and are susceptible to counterattacks, especially [in the case of] repeated launching.”

On Israel’s nemesis in the north, Hezbollah, Ansbacher said that it is already worn down by the series of IDF attacks in the past 10 months, despite perhaps a contrary perception by the Israeli public. “And like Iran, Hezbollah is threatened by internal Lebanese forces waiting for an opportunity to overthrow it. [Hezbollah] doesn’t want war right now,” he said.

As for Iran, “If Israel attacks the ayatollah regime or elements within the regime that suppress the population, such as the Basij [a domestic militia that brutally enforces Islamic rules], then there’s a high probability that a rebellion will break out inside Iran and topple the government. And even if it doesn’t, it will be enough to paralyze Iran’s efforts to attack us,” he noted.

“We shouldn’t think about what Iran can do, but [about] what it already did. It revealed all its cards. Hamas can’t harm us strategically. Hezbollah is limited. This is the time to strike Iran. Cutting off the head of the octopus will dry up its arms in a domino effect that will deter all our enemies. The entire world will benefit from this, and I believe that the US will join the war effort, too. This will send a clear message to those challenging the West – China, Russia, and North Korea – that it is still as powerful and as decisive as ever.”

Time off from war
Brik does not believe that the Iranians will drop nuclear weapons on Israel.

“If they use nuclear bombs maybe they’ll destroy Israel, but they will also destroy themselves. Even [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, who threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, didn’t do it, because he understands that the first to drop a nuclear bomb will lead to a world war in which everybody eventually gets annihilated,” he said.Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear capacity is to provide cover for its conventional war efforts, Brik asserted.

“Those who talk about stopping a nuclear Iran don’t know what they’re talking about,” he continued. “Israel can’t do it. In 2008, when Iran’s nuclear project was still defenseless – unlike today when it’s dispersed across many sites and developed deep beneath the ground and under mountains – Israel had a plan to carry out an attack that would foil the Iranian nuclear project. NIS 11 billion were invested in exercises and training, but in the end it did not come to fruition.”
The veteran officer related that the senior officials who carefully crafted the operation realized that even if it were successful, it could only delay the project for a year in the most optimal outcome.

“The Iranian response, however, could have potentially killed 400 [Israeli] civilians, and that’s when [the Iranians] had fewer capabilities than they have today,” he added.

“Today, if Israel attempted striking Iran’s nuclear sites, it could only cause a minuscule delay, while [starting] a regional war.”

What Israel should do, Brik went on to say, is pause the war in the Gaza Strip so it can dedicate its time in preparations for conventional war, “which is like a nuclear bomb only without nuclear fallout. We should have already prepared for this, with our own missile corps and a powerful defense laser system [against rockets].”

Brik projected a future similar to that of the Cold War: a Western bloc versus an Eastern bloc that balances each other out and prevents global war.

After a while, I'm starting to think Israel knows full well these assassinations don't actually accomplish anything.

Israel has been murdering opponents of the apartheid state since the 40's. It has not stopped the emergence of groups like Hamas or Hezbollah, nor has it diminished among regular people of the Arab world the desire to oppose Israel.

Israel is lashing out in violence because that is the only solution it knows.

All it knows is "deterrence". We've been hearing that word an awful lot lately, huh? Why is that? "Deterrence", by its very usage, suggests that Israel knows full well that it's actions will not actually stop people from wanting to oppose it. "Deterrence" is using fear and the threat of violence to uphold a status quo that cannot be upheld without fear and violence. "Deterrence" is procrastination. "Deterrence" is kicking the can down the road. "Deterrence" is explicitly admitting that you are not addressing the roots of the matter.

"Deterrence" is a word uttered by Zionists who essentially admit that murdering Muslims does not actually make Israel safer or less hated. They just assume they will always have the upper hand in terms of force of arms. You don't need to learn to get along with the other kids when the parents enable and defend you to bully everyone you want. Being a bully just makes all the other kids hate you, and after a while even your enablers will get annoyed with constantly dealing with your indefensible actions.

A lot of Zionists assume there is no solving the problem, that the desire to wipe the Jews off the face of the earth is a permanent condition. Thus what has happened in Lebanon the last two weeks will make it less dangerous for a period of time ie. kicking the can down the road. Not as bad for a period of time is seen as worthwhile. Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires.

I can understand as there is abundant evidence to support this assumption.

BTW, we should remember that Iran's current government has long nursed a grudge against Israel simply because Israel supported the Shah. Otherwise Iran and Israel's interests don't conflict in any way. Iran created Hezbollah solely as a way to make war on Israel. There are few Shi'ites in Palestine proper and no native non-Jewish Persians. Iran has no historical, cultural, or ethical reason for sympathy with Palestinians, it's all about their decades-old grudge. We should keep this in mind before we start feeling sorry for Iran or Hezbollah.

BTW, we should remember that Iran's current government has long nursed a grudge against Israel simply because Israel supported the Shah. Otherwise Iran and Israel's interests don't conflict in any way. Iran created Hezbollah solely as a way to make war on Israel. There are few Shi'ites in Palestine proper and no native non-Jewish Persians. Iran has no historical, cultural, or ethical reason for sympathy with Palestinians, it's all about their decades-old grudge.

But noooooooooooo. I'm sure you're right and that it's all just about the Shah and calculated, cynical Realpolitik.

Not Realpolitik. Just the Shah. Hatred of the Shah has consumed these people for generations.

While generational memories of the Shah might be a factor in Iran’s hostility towards Israel it is a minor one at best.

The main motivation is Iran is trying to be the regional power by being viewed as the leader in driving the “infidels” out.