'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll
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14 Oct 2024, 3:56 am
Quote:
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked in the latest national NBC News poll, with Trump bolstered by Republicans coming back home to support him after last month’s rough debate and a subsequent polling deficit, as well as by a favorable voter assessment of Trump’s term as president.
These are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows Harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters viewing abortion as a top motivating issue heading into the 2024 vote.
As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
Still, underlining the poll is uncertainty about the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a sliver of unclaimed voters still on the fence), an all-time-high share of voters believing that this presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and key challenges for both Harris and Trump. The third-party vote could play a role, too — Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, to a 1-point edge.
And in a finely balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could be the difference between a win and a loss for either party.
The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In the new poll — which was conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.
An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.
In September, however, Harris held a 6-point lead on this expanded ballot.
Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A massive gender gap
At 48%-48%, the survey results are as close as possible. But among different groups, there are enormous variations in candidate support.
The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among Black voters (84%-11%), younger voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-41%).
Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without college degrees (65%-33%).
Yet what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is a massive gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a 14-point margin (55%-41%) and men backing Trump by 16-points (56%-40%).
Independent voters are essentially split in the poll, with Harris getting support from 44% of them versus 40% choosing Trump.
Harris’ popularity declines
Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the major developments in September’s NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on Sept. 10, was her double-digit increase in popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before she became Democrats’ presidential candidate. Her ratings shot upward to 48% positive, 45% negative (a +3 net rating).
But in this latest poll, Harris’ rating stands at 43% positive, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and young voters.
Perceptions of Biden’s presidency lag Trump’s
Another storyline from the poll is voters’ different views of Biden’s presidency versus Trump’s — a key question given the candidates’ efforts to cast themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, compared with 45% who believe they’ve hurt them.
Those numbers are essentially flipped on views of Trump’s past presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies helped them, versus 31% who say they hurt them.
What’s more, looking back on Trump’s presidency, 48% of voters say they approved of the former president’s job performance. That’s a higher job-approval rating than Trump ever held in the NBC News poll when he was president.
It also stands in contrast to Biden’s current 43% approval in the poll.
And asked what concerns them more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president — 43% of voters say they are more concerned about Harris following in Biden’s path, compared with 41% who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his term.
“The fact that Harris trails even slightly on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden’s policies are hurting their family, while Trump’s policies helped their family,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Abortion is the top motivating issue — and the best issue for Harris
While most public polls, including September’s national NBC News poll, find the cost of living ranking as voters’ top concern, this survey asked a different question to get at voter intensity and motivation heading into Election Day: Is there one issue you feel so strongly about that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that issue?
The top responses, with multiple allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%) and cost of living (16%).
Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “great deal of difference” in their lives. That’s the highest response on this NBC News poll question dating back to 1992.
Like on the presidential ballot, Democrats and Republicans are tied on congressional preference, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, and with an identical 47% wanting Republicans in charge. Democrats held a 2-point lead in September, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.
And 31% of voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 64% think it’s on the wrong track. The share of voters believing the country is on the wrong track is the lowest it’s been in the poll since August 2021, which was also the last time Biden had a positive job approval rating in the poll.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cellphone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
These are among the findings of a new survey released three weeks before Election Day, which also shows Harris’ popularity declining compared to a month ago, after she got a big summertime boost; a massive gender gap between support for Harris and Trump; and voters viewing abortion as a top motivating issue heading into the 2024 vote.
As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
Still, underlining the poll is uncertainty about the election (with 10% of voters saying they might change their minds and a sliver of unclaimed voters still on the fence), an all-time-high share of voters believing that this presidential election will make “a great deal of difference” in their lives, and key challenges for both Harris and Trump. The third-party vote could play a role, too — Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test, to a 1-point edge.
And in a finely balanced election, even small changes in turnout among different groups could be the difference between a win and a loss for either party.
The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
In the new poll — which was conducted Oct. 4-8 — Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. Another 4% say they are undecided or wouldn’t vote for either option when forced to choose between those two major-party candidates.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%, though that result was within the margin of error.
An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters in the new poll picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided.
In September, however, Harris held a 6-point lead on this expanded ballot.
Given that close elections are often decided by which party better turns out its voters, the NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios.
Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans — which means slightly greater turnout among men, white voters and voters without college degrees — Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%.
But assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats — which means more women, more white voters with college degrees and more voters of color showing up to the polls — these survey results show Harris leading Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%.
All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A massive gender gap
At 48%-48%, the survey results are as close as possible. But among different groups, there are enormous variations in candidate support.
The poll finds Harris with her biggest advantages over Trump among Black voters (84%-11%), younger voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-37%) and white voters with college degrees (55%-41%).
Trump, meanwhile, leads among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters (56%-42%) and whites without college degrees (65%-33%).
Yet what also stands out as one of the defining features of the election is a massive gender gap between Harris and Trump, with women supporting Harris by a 14-point margin (55%-41%) and men backing Trump by 16-points (56%-40%).
Independent voters are essentially split in the poll, with Harris getting support from 44% of them versus 40% choosing Trump.
Harris’ popularity declines
Another significant change in the NBC News poll since September is Harris’ popularity.
One of the major developments in September’s NBC News poll, conducted after the Harris-Trump debate on Sept. 10, was her double-digit increase in popularity compared to earlier in the summer, before she became Democrats’ presidential candidate. Her ratings shot upward to 48% positive, 45% negative (a +3 net rating).
But in this latest poll, Harris’ rating stands at 43% positive, 49% negative (-6), with the erosion coming mainly from independents and young voters.
Perceptions of Biden’s presidency lag Trump’s
Another storyline from the poll is voters’ different views of Biden’s presidency versus Trump’s — a key question given the candidates’ efforts to cast themselves as agents of change in this election.
Twenty-five percent of voters say Biden’s policies have helped them and their families, compared with 45% who believe they’ve hurt them.
Those numbers are essentially flipped on views of Trump’s past presidency: 44% of voters say the former president’s policies helped them, versus 31% who say they hurt them.
What’s more, looking back on Trump’s presidency, 48% of voters say they approved of the former president’s job performance. That’s a higher job-approval rating than Trump ever held in the NBC News poll when he was president.
It also stands in contrast to Biden’s current 43% approval in the poll.
And asked what concerns them more — Harris continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump continuing the same approach from his first term as president — 43% of voters say they are more concerned about Harris following in Biden’s path, compared with 41% who are more worried about Trump repeating the actions of his term.
“The fact that Harris trails even slightly on this measure is a warning sign, because voters are more likely to believe that Biden’s policies are hurting their family, while Trump’s policies helped their family,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
Abortion is the top motivating issue — and the best issue for Harris
While most public polls, including September’s national NBC News poll, find the cost of living ranking as voters’ top concern, this survey asked a different question to get at voter intensity and motivation heading into Election Day: Is there one issue you feel so strongly about that you will vote for or against a candidate solely on that issue?
The top responses, with multiple allowed: abortion (22%), immigration/border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%) and cost of living (16%).
Sixty-two percent of registered voters believe the upcoming presidential election will make a “great deal of difference” in their lives. That’s the highest response on this NBC News poll question dating back to 1992.
Like on the presidential ballot, Democrats and Republicans are tied on congressional preference, with 47% of registered voters preferring a Democratic-controlled Congress, and with an identical 47% wanting Republicans in charge. Democrats held a 2-point lead in September, 48%-46%, which was within the margin of error.
And 31% of voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 64% think it’s on the wrong track. The share of voters believing the country is on the wrong track is the lowest it’s been in the poll since August 2021, which was also the last time Biden had a positive job approval rating in the poll.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters, 898 of whom were reached by cellphone, was conducted Oct. 4-8. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
underlining=mine
When Harris first replaced Biden there was this combination of euphoria and cockiness that I found both nauseating and frightening. This was a “sugar high” that by definition was not going to last. People were eventually going to start judging her beyond “she is not senile like Biden”. It has not gone well. They finally paraded her to a round of sympathetic interviewers and it did not help. People are finding her off putting to a degree that is starting to resemble Hillary. The going theory in certain circles is because she is black, she is a woman, or both. To say that these are not factors is naive. That said when she ran for president the last time she had to quit before the first primary, so maybe, just maybe she is bad at campaigning.
The well worn cliche is that if you say the same lie enough times people will believe you. This brings us to a main factor in the election the perception that the economy was great under Trump and lousy under Biden-Harris. It was relatively good for the first three years and lousy his last year during COVID. Voters punished Trump for that by tossing him. Now four years later that has been forgotten. I blame the combination of the normal human mind that emphasizes what happened recently. Also the publics attitude towered COVID is that there is no public attitude towered COVID. Since the emergency stage ended the attitude has been forget it ever happened.
The middle class perceives they are falling behind because they are. Men perceive they are falling behind because they are. What these people hear all too often it is their fault. They are racist, they are xenophobic, what can you expect from people who shop at Wallmart, toxic masculinity, and now that other groups are making progress these fragile snowflakes perceive they are being oppressed boo-hoo. And the statistics say that by nearly every metric the Biden-Harris economy is going gangbusters. Kamala is trying, but she coming off as the child of upper middle class coastal parents that she is. Trump has much more of a privileged background then she does but he connects in ways she is unable to.
While this is one poll most other polls if you take into account margin of error shows the election up for grabs.
What is too often forgotten is that Trump remains one of the most unpopular major party nominees in history. For all the talk of MAGA die hards anti Trump people are also very motivated. Election day is just 3 weeks away but with early voting the election is underway. Yet here we are with by all measures a toss up.
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