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pbcoll
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18 May 2008, 8:37 am

The Old Titans All Collapsed. Is the U.S. Next?

Interesting article - I would add though that this belief in manifest destiny is even stronger in contemporary Europe than in the US (deep down most Europeans see themselves as the world's sole legitimate rulers, and see American dominance as a temporary freak accident).
More widely, I think we're seeing the end of Western preeminence - two of the world's top three economies are Asian; the world's two largest foreign currency reserves are both held by Asian countries; the world's largest army, as well as, according to Pentagon estimates, the world's second-largest military budget are China's; research labs in Shanghai are as well-funded as the ones in California, while in real terms the US cuts back the National Institute of Health's budget; GDP per capita in the Shanghai Corridor is as high as Britain's, etc. While the euro is doing well (the US dollar is falling relative to just about every currency there is, including the Mexican peso), the EU also has deep structural problems (for example, Italy is approaching Argentine levels of bad governance).


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Sargon
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18 May 2008, 9:24 am

It is a tad early to say the end of Western preeminence is up us. If you take the EU as one country, it becomes the largest economy in the world with the U.S. as #2. The Asian economies holding large amounts of foreign currency reserves has more to do with their economic policies than anything else (in the past, they pegged their currencies to the dollar which caused them trouble in the 90s with the East Asian currency crisis, and today they tend to have a dirty float, which they would want dollar reserves for). The largest army is somewhat irrelevant today as a more advanced, better trained military can easily crush a larger foe. GDP per capita in the rich part of a other poor country (in terms of per capita income) is equal to a first world country does not really say much in terms of the argument. Corrupt governments exist in Asia as well as Italy, and they do not necessarily always cause decline (Singapore for example).

As for the article, it appears to be the usual doom and gloom type because of the economic slowdown and George Bush, written by an author who has not studied any basic economics. All and all, it is way too early to say the West or the U.S. for that matter is in some sort of overall decline.



pbcoll
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20 May 2008, 6:41 pm

China is on track to overtake the US in economic size within a decade - with already the second largest military budget, whose growth is in the double digits, an increasingly technologically sophisticated China is also on track to catch up militarily in a relatively short time, particularly with the US military tied up in the Middle East. And Iraq shows that the numbers of boots on the ground do matter (as generals like Shinseki knew from the start). If China can catch up both economically and militarily, what's left?
Comparing the EU with national economies is comparing apples and oranges, unless you restrict it to the eurozone, in which case it's smaller than the US. And in the words of a Belgian diplomat, 'the EU is an economic giant, a political dwarf and a military worm.'
Bad governance is corruption plus incompetence. A corrupt but highly competent government can indeed preside over a successful economy, as in Singapore. Italy has corruption, negligence and gross incompetence - in Naples the government can't even pick up the trash, which plenty of places in the Third World can. Italy's fiscal policy makes even Bush look like a model of fiscal prudence. Italy does seem to be following the path of once-rich Argentina. If Italy defaults on her debts, that would wreck the EU's economic credibility.
Already, US influence has collapsed or is collapsing in much of the world - in Latin America, the US is now just one more player competing for influence, along with Brazil, Venezuela, Spain (a situation unprecedented since 1898) and China. Much of the resource-rich parts of Africa is already part of the Chinese economic sphere of influence. In the Middle East, the US is competing against Iran.


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oscuria
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20 May 2008, 7:11 pm

This is a natural occurrence.

We should have based our economy like that of the Egyptians. ;)


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pbcoll
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04 Jun 2008, 4:16 am

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At the annual National Forum, a gathering of business leaders, I felt like a first-world pipsqueak as leaders of the national energy company Petrobras (bigger than BP, Shell and Total) and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or C.V.R.D. (the world’s second largest mining company), reeled off head-turning statistics.

Roger Agnelli of C.V.R.D. waved away the United States (“It’s full of debt”) to focus on the company’s ambitions in Asia. It was imperative to be there, he said, because that’s where growth, capital and ambition are. China, he noted, will account for 55 percent of iron ore consumption, 31.6 percent of nickel, and 42 percent of aluminum by 2012. Case closed.

C.V.R.D. bought Canada’s Inco, a nickel miner, for $17 billion in 2006. It came close to acquiring the Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata for $90 billion this year. Just last week, India’s Vedanta Resources reached a $2.6 billion deal to buy U.S. copper miner Asarco.

That deal is being challenged by Grupo Mexico, creating a Latin-American-Asian fight for a U.S. company.


Click here for full article.


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pbcoll
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04 Jun 2008, 1:03 pm

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Sovereign wealth funds are the investment funds established by governments in the Middle East and elsewhere, who have large surpluses of money which they wish to invest abroad.

Currently the OECD estimates that there is about $3 trillion (£1.5 trillion) in sovereign wealth funds, more than the total amount held by all public sector pension schemes around the world.

And the total is growing rapidly, perhaps reaching $12 trillion within 10 years, according to private sector estimates....

The rise of sovereign wealth funds is one sign of the shift in the balance of power in the world economy from the Western countries to the new emerging market giants like China and the oil-rich Middle East.


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I am the steppenwolf that never learned to dance. (Sedaka)

El hombre es una bestia famélica, envidiosa e insaciable. (Francisco Tario)

I'm male by the way (yes, I know my avatar is misleading).