Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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EzraS
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30 Mar 2020, 10:02 pm

goldfish21 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Every state on the west coast is solid blue.

The Seattle area is deep blue.

I already knew that but wanted to drive home the point that THIS is why Washington will be able to flatten their curve and eventually mitigate the C-19 crisis and get things under control. Factors like education, cooperation, openness to objective reality etc all come into play.

In trump country? Not so much. They don’t believe in science. They don’t listen to anyone from the Democrat coastal elite. They’re not as highly educated, on average. They don’t listen to “liberal media fags,” talking “schooly,” to them. Etc. They do listen to their orange cult leader and perhaps their local priest or pastor.

This is why C-19 will DEVASTATE trump country compared to blue states and cities. When it really hits hard in red states, it’s going to be absolutely catastrophic.

In reality governor Jay Inslee is quite angry at Washingtonians, especially Seattleites, for not being more compliant, to the point of issuing ultimatums. Not that I should address your vitriolic raving prejudice.

Also fwiw from looking at live webcams, there are a lot more people out and about in Vancouver BC than there are in Seattle.

goldfish21
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30 Mar 2020, 11:15 pm

EzraS wrote:

goldfish21 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Every state on the west coast is solid blue.

The Seattle area is deep blue.

The numbers never lie. There is no prejudice in statistics. Watch how this unfolds across the USA. Behaviour today dictates the death toll in ~3 weeks or so. Watch educated areas with populations that believe in the objective reality of science fare reasonably well while trump country gets self-slaughtered. It’s possible my forecast is wrong, but I don’t think so. Wait and see.

As for people out and about in Vancouver: COVIDIOTS. All of them. They piss me off. Def won’t catch me on any of those webcams. I’ve only gone outside for a handful of solo walks for the last few weeks. Haven’t been to a grocery store even for ~5-6 weeks. And once I move back home in a couple days I’ll likely go to a grocery store for some vitamins/probiotics etc but technically there’s enough food stockpiled at home to survive on for months w/o ever leaving. I have never ever seen a household with more food in it in my life. We’re definitely not going to be out unnecessarily.

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kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 8:30 am

I feel like 10’s of thousands in deaths are possible. Most in New York City.

Last edited by kraftiekortie on 31 Mar 2020, 9:14 am, edited 1 time in total.

Fnord
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31 Mar 2020, 8:55 am

Hmm ... 200,000 deaths out of 328,200,000 people (as of 2019) yields a mortality rate of 0.061%.

You know what they say: "The death of a single person is a tragedy, while the deaths of millions is a mere statistic."

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Magna
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31 Mar 2020, 8:57 am

goldfish21 wrote:

Except compared to countries that have slowed the spread, the USA isn’t shutdown and people aren’t distancing. Soooo, there’s that..

Wrong.

kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 9:26 am

We’re in shutdown in NYC except for essentials...and have been for over a week.

Understandable, given the NYC coronavirus numbers.

kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 9:29 am

We’re not going to get to 200,000 deaths nationwide.

We might get close to about 30,000 in New York.

Fnord
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31 Mar 2020, 9:35 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

We’re not going to get to 200,000 deaths nationwide...

I suspect it will be about 20 times that much. I hope I'm not one of them, though; I have good money riding on it.

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kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 9:36 am

Cases, probably. Deaths. Probably not.

Fnord
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31 Mar 2020, 9:44 am

Current mortality rate is from 1 to 4 percent, depending on the region. This is much higher than the 0.061 percent predicted by Fauci. While past performance does not guaranty future results, it seems to be the way to bet.

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kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 9:47 am

Out West, the rate of positive test results is less than 10%. Even in California.

In the NYC area, it’s about 30%. In NYC, probably over 50%. Some neighborhoods over 70%.

In Michigan, about 30%, too.

Louisiana: about 12%. Texas: less than 10%.

We need nationwide testing in order to know the true extent of this.

The nationwide rate is 15.6%—but the results are skewed by New York’s numbers.

EzraS
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31 Mar 2020, 10:01 am

Fnord wrote:

The mortality rate is based on known cases. Most likely the regions that have the lowest mortality rate have had the most testing. There have been at least 3 people on low traffic WP who thought they had it, but did not get tested. I bet only 1 in 10 people who have gotten it have been diagnosed.

I wonder what the predictions were for swine flu back in 2009. I'm having a harder time each day fining articles written on the internet back then because they are getting buried by C19 articles.

Fnord
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31 Mar 2020, 10:24 am

We won't know for certain until it is over.

My Magic 8-Ball keeps saying "Reply hazy, try again".

:wink:

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kraftiekortie
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31 Mar 2020, 10:44 am

That’s true. We won’t know for certain until it’s all over.

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31 Mar 2020, 10:56 am

Fnord wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

We’re not going to get to 200,000 deaths nationwide...

I suspect it will be about 20 times that much. I hope I'm not one of them, though; I have good money riding on it.

I'll take that wager. I'll take the under for $100. Shake hands?

EzraS
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31 Mar 2020, 10:57 am

kraftiekortie wrote:

That’s true. We won’t know for certain until it’s all over.

And when is that going to be I wonder.

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