Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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Sorry. No on-line betting. The only  suckers  people I gamble with are people I know in person.

Standard. Makes outrageous claims on the internet, such as the US will have 4,000,000 COVID-19 deaths and is unwilling to back it up. I'll even cut you a better deal and reduce the over/under to 1,000,000. That's reducing your predicted over/under by 1/4 and I'm still taking the under. You have to be crazy not to take that bet if you're actually taking yourself or anything you're saying seriously.

$100 - I'm honorable. If the death toll in the US reaches 25% of your prediction, you win. Easy money.

I keep hearing the duration 12-18 months. Not sure if that’s a typical curve model until herd immunity develops or if that’s a timeline hoping for a vaccine by then. Either way, they say this first major wave could last 12-18 months before it becomes a seasonal illness like flu.

Nope. Sorry. Ain't gonna happen. Too many on-line predators trying to get my personal data already.

If it’s 4 Mill +/- 1 Mill wouldn’t it have to reach 75% aka 3 Mill not 25%?

Legit question. I don’t gamble so may be interpreting over/under math incorrectly.

How do you figure that?

Because at least 2/3s of all Americans are on virtual lockdown.

News clip I just watched now has Dr. Deborah Brix (corona task force team USA) saying that the American death toll may be kept to 100K-200K IF everyone in America does everything PERFECT from here on in.

200K deaths IF everyone does a PERFECT job.

People aren’t perfect and there are still regions of the USA largely not complying with instructions on how to mitigate this thing.

Sooo, even though I think Fnord’s numbers might be a little high, my $ would 100% be on more than 200K US C-19 deaths within 12-18 months. And who knows? Maybe those 2.2 Million numbers aren’t so far fetched.

Obvi time will tell, but 100% guaranteed this is getting Much, MUCH, worse stateside before it gets better.

..that’s a pretty piss poor number % wise compared to much of the rest of the world. 1/3 are doing whatever they feel like still? That’s like 110,000,000 people or so. That’s an awful lot of virus spreaders.

I’m talking about the people who are REGULATED BY LAW.

I am certain most of the other 110 million folks are doing safe practices, too.

I think perhaps they are trying to scare people into being more cooperative. The keywords in statements given like that are "may" "might" "could" "possibly" et al.

Plus I have seen archives of dire predictions made about swine flu in 2009 and other pandemics that did not come close to the big numbers predicted.

Everything is closed. There's noting for people to do anymore to spread the virus. People who still have jobs are going back and forth to work and getting food and that is about it.

My guess is the death toll for things that happen to people when they are away from home, is going to be lowered so much, the death toll for 2020 might actually be lower than what it was for 2019.

Last edited by EzraS on 31 Mar 2020, 12:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

This is a nice example of the American culture of not trusting your government or authority figures.

I’m not saying people shouldn’t question what they’re told or should blindly trust everything they’re told. Only that it seems to be ingrained in American society not to trust their government, and so now in the midst of a viral pandemic when people are told what to do to mitigate the crisis.. well, many don’t listen. They simply don’t believe it’s as bad as it is or that what they’re being told to do is necessary. So, many don’t do it.. and then the death toll marches higher.

This is in stark contrast to nations where people trust their government to give them factual health information and guidance. Nations where they have much more socially cohesive collective society that acts together as one. Those people listen and do as instructed for the benefit of themselves and their follow countrymen.. and that’s why other places have been able to head this thing off early and the USA is struggling Bigly.

I think you don't know what you're talking about.

Mmhmm. Again, it doesn’t matter what you or I think. Bottom line is the bottom line. The death toll numbers will speak for themselves and I stand by my statements that for all of these observable factors about American society, the USA will have, by FAR, the highest C-19 death toll in the industrialized world. Significantly higher than we will have here in Canada (your closest comparable) on an absolute and per capita basis, too.

If You are right about America, this won’t come to fruition. But I do believe I am correct in my observations & projects of what’s to come. Watch and see.

Again, I don’t Want to be correct and I don’t Want people to die. But I think that I am and they will.

California has the largest population in America (twice that of New York) but it is considerably way behind New York in number of developing cases. And that is not because California has tighter measures in place than New York. Texas which has the second highest population in the US and is by far the biggest red state, has about half as many cases as deep blue California.

I'd like to see you post those per capita statistics, but I have a feeling to don't actually know what they are.