The Threat to Taiwan may be Lower than We Thought

Post Reply New Topic

Our “national personality” may make us blink in a game of brinkmanship. And you have no reply to possible Chinese cyber attack which is a form of asymmetrical warfare.

I am flabbergasted at the cockiness in this thread. It is like the last 60 years of American overestimation did not happen. In war you don’t know for certain how people are going to react when the shooting starts, you can’t be certain what the enemy is going to do, or their capabilities. You should not go by American assumptions when fighting a country with a different culture. You do not think the Chinese have studied us and possibly found ways to negate our military advantages?

Im not following "American assumptions". I am imitating you by using your Chinese assumptions. And I still dont get it.

You dont grasp the meaning of the world "symmetrical". It means "having symmetry". Germany against France...the US against Germany in the two world wars is "symmetrical warfare" because both sides are comparable in industry and technology. The US against the Taliban is asymmetrical. Because one side is more powerful than the other.

Cyber warfare would be "symmetrical" because both sides (China and the US) are roughly equally advanced in cyber tech. Unconventional but symmetrical.

If we wiped out their navy in one afternoon the war would be over because they would have no way to land a million troops on Taiwan. All of the drones and cyber attacks wouldnt change that fact.

If they did launch some multi year cyber campaign...using their oriental cultural long ranch patience to wear the enemy down piecemeal then we would retailate with sanctions and cyber attacks of our own...it would mess up world commerce...hamper trade ...hamper predictabliity and crash the stock market, and mess up the world's economy...and damage China (likely even worse than it would damage Taiwan or the US).

I THINK what you're imagining is...the US and China officially start an actual shooting war with each other. You cant do that anymore. If superpowers directly fight each other it would go nuclear and...be the end of world civilization as we know it.

So it would have to be some scenario in which China attacks Taiwan...without involving the US. Which is rather contrived scenario that is hard to imagine.

And thats where the real issue...the issue of brinkmanship comes in.

Which side would be most willing to court suicide to make its point so to speak. And that could change over time given circumstances.

It really depends.

We can assume neither Russia nor China will attack America with a fleet of aircraft carriers given neither is able to operationally use the carriers they possess.

We can assume China can't carry out an amphibious operation that's vastly more sophisticated than any operation they've attempted to conduct. That's not to say it's impossible, only that it would amount to a moonshot. There's a lot of places for such an operation to fail and without experience they're unlikely to have proper contingencies (supposing they might even exist).

China's inability to invade Taiwan is ultimately a math problem. Without adequate RO/RO capabilities, they can't sustain such an operation, even assuming every single Chinese civilian RO/RO vessel is commandeered for the effort.

I wouldn't count on that. That's not to say there wouldn't be red lines for each side where use of nuclear weapons would be considered, but odds are neither China nor the US will want to be the first one to use them.

The threat of nuclear escalation will likely keep the US from attempting to invade China or topple the CPC.
The threat of nuclear retaliation will likely keep China from targeting American fleets with nuclear weapons, but probably isn't enough to keep them from being targeted by conventional weapons.

An interesting news story has been generated since I wrote the original post for this thread.

Salaries for civil service employees including doctors, teachers, and government workers, and salaries for police officers and member of the People's Army have all been cut by an average of 20% due to the CCP's ongoing financial crisis.

Since the police and the army have been instrumental in keeping the CCP in power, the thought that their salaries have been reduced should be worrying in terms of their ability to maintain control over their country.

Within the last few days, crowds have begun to gather in major cities. These crowds have been chanting, "DOWN WITH THE CCP!"

The people are annoyed over rising unemployment due to so many business closures. They're annoyed over the disappearance of their savings from Chinese banks due to issues with corruption and embezzlement. Many are stuck with toxic mortgages for homes that were never finished by unscrupulous developers. Some of these houses were also built with subpar materials and are literally falling apart. A growing number of people have also complained about not having received paychecks in over six months.

Six years ago, nobody would have dreamed to criticize the CCP because they would have been arrested and thrown in prison. What I find particularly interesting is that I've seen YouTube videos about protests in which the police have just been standing by. Had the government not cut police salaries, local officers might have been more proactive in curbing these protests. As it is, the people are likely voicing what many others (including police officers) have been thinking.

The CCP is deeply corrupt. High government officials have entitled lifestyles that are completely different from that of the average citizen. In an attitude that is reminiscent of Marie Antoinette's alleged comment (which never actually occurred in response to having been told that the people had no bread) i.e. "Let them eat cake," Tik-Tok videos have surfaced showing wives, mistresses, and family members of high government officials bragging about their affluent lifestyles. These videos have appeared at a time when people have lost their homes and their life savings.

It will be interesting to see if the CCP can maintain its grip on power.

^
Hmmm...

If the party gets overthrown then the unthinkable might happen.

The Taiwan tail might end up...wagging the mainland dog.

I wouldn't anticipate the RoC ever asserting itself on the mainland again. I'm not saying it can't happen, just that it seems unlikely the RoC would gain control compared to some new entity that emerges on the mainland.

The KMT would likely desire to reassert itself on the mainland (given they still hold to the One China concept), but the DPP seem like they have no interest and view Taiwan as already independent and separate from China (meaning they're unlikely to assert the RoC as the legitimate Chinese government, whereas the KMT do).

Tell them (commoners) I found their (embezzled) money.. it's why people here can't afford homes as Chinese investors have bought up a bunch of new homes that no one lives in. I worked on a heritage house restoration that was worth about $40M for some Chinese Billionaire that owns a handful of properties around Vancouver.. there was one major rule on that build: Nothing was allowed to be made in China. Not one single nail, Nothing. The steel that went into supporting the garage had to be located and brought in - it was made in Russia. Apparently the guy was a big shot property developer in Hong Kong after leaving the military and made his money by building subpar places.. I guess it's not so difficult to photoshop a metallurgy report that Says you built a tower out of "steel,"...


Oh great, now we're going to get another mad influx of this class of people over here.. they'll bring their money via backdoor channels, send their wives and kids over to buy homes etc while they liquidate assets and figure out how to move money through lawyers, crypto, casinos, smurfing etc. I guess this Spring will be a good time if you're a luxury property Realtor or work at one of the exotic car dealerships in town -> those kids need McLarens to drive to University.

It's kinda funny but I am not joking. For the ones that haven't escaped yet and are going to, we're one of the top destinations on the planet. $ is coming. :/

That's EXACTLY what's happening. Singapore, which is arguably the banking center of SE Asia, has seen an influx of wealthy Chinese. This has annoyed the locals because the demand for property is such that prices are now far beyond anything that a first time homeowner could afford. By home, I mean condo. Land is at such a premium in Singapore that very few people own actual houses. The average home owner lives in a condo high rise.

To stop losing billions of dollars, the Chinese government has (in theory) imposed strict regulations regarding how much money may be taken out of the country. The well to do naturally have ways around this. One technique they're using is called smurfing. They take their fortune and divide it into hundreds if not thousands of smaller transactions. They then pay people to use their bank accounts to move this money and pay a commission to each participant. While they do run the risk that an unscrupulous person will simply keep the deposited funds, it has been my understanding that millions of dollars have been flowing out of the country under the radar of banking auditors.

In the meanwhile, local businesses in Singapore have been taking advantage of the situation. Rental prices in Singapore have shot up 33%. A golf club membership at the Sentosa Golf Club was just doubled to $880,000 Singaporean dollars ($660,000 U.S.) for foreigners.

Although Singapore has long since restricted the purchase of homes by non-Singaporeans, the influx of Chinese has been felt in other areas of the economy. Their demand for luxury food products, for example, has significantly raised prices for in-demand products like roast duck, crab, lobster, etc. The price of imported items like champagne and wine have also gone up.

Most of the articles that I have read, that rank different countries and their respective military strength, seem to put Russia in second place in the world's most powerful military rankings, with China in third.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ranked-world-most-powerful-militaries-2023-firepower-us-china-russia-2023-5?op=1&r=US&IR=T#1-the-us-25

Have you seen something different somewhere?

I think they overestimate Russia's capabilities and underestimate China's.

I'm not sure the second most powerful military in Ukraine can be claimed to be the second most powerful military on earth.

Aren't Russia winning the war in Ukraine?

Ukraine would have been steam-rolled by Russia already, if Ukraine weren't being bankrolled by the US, the UK and other military aid lenders.

No, I wouldn't say that Russia is winning, not in the slightest. When you look at the scale of Russian operations in Ukraine it seems like Russia is worried about a mutiny if they attempt to order larger operations.

Meanwhile Ukraine is slowly eroding the assets Russia needs to sustain their occupation of Crimea.

If Russia's primary goal is to reduce their prison population, they're succeeding. If their goal to is expand and/or consolidate their holdings in Ukraine, not so much.

Western weapons are certainly aiding the Ukrainian cause, but substantial operational failings by the Russian army have also substantially contributed to the outcomes so far.

The Ukrainian cause has not been helped by Republican intransigence regarding the continued funding of military operations in Ukraine. While weapons, equipment, and supplies are still in the pipeline for delivery to this beleaguered country, the GOP has refused to agree to any further aid.

While the United States has been a major contributor to Ukraine, it's fortunate for this east European country that the US wasn't the sole supporter. Weapons, equipment, and supplies are still available through many NATO countries.

Having said this, I'm sure that Putin has quietly rejoiced over the failure of the U.S. Congress to continue supporting Ukraine. I am also quite certain that he's hoping that Trump will win the Republican primary and be re-elected to the White House.

^ I'd agree with all of that.