Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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I believe Fauci, obviously, is much more of an expert on this than Trump.

I hope you don’t feel my impressions are based upon Trump’s impressions. You should know better than that! Trump is a blithering idiot.

I base my impressions on the trends.

I estimate 50,000 to 100,000 deaths, most from the NYC area, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Louisiana, and maybe Florida.

New York State will probably get about 20,000 deaths, unfortunately.

But I don’t believe most states will reach 1,000.

20,000 deaths by when, next April?

The end of this month. High-end estimate.

Based on present trends.

When Cuomo says we need 30,000 ventilators, he’s basing this on something close to a worst-case scenario.

That’s the way leaders have to think in the midst of a pandemic onslaught.

It might turn out we don’t need that many—but would you, as a leader, be willing to take that risk?

I'll keep count of NY in my thread.

You don’t get to Fauci’s revised estimates of 200,000 or 240,000 by most states never reaching 1,000.

Although, I suppose you could.. if most deaths are in one area of the county.

But I tend to believe Cuomo is correct in saying that New York is merely first. There will be other hot spot cities and states. They’re well on their way to developing right now.

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No for supporting trump. Because doing so is deplorable.

Let’s see how this pans out over the next week.

I’m basing my impressions on the rate of positive test results amongst the states, and present trends. Most states yield less than 10% positive test results—including the whole West Coast. The rate of positives is over 50% in NYC. People who are tested are usually quite seriously ill already.

I’m not claiming my impressions are infallible.

To me there is a big difference between someone making guesstimation and a proclamation.

I’m making an educated guesstimate.

Cuomo estimated 16,000 deaths in New York State as a middling-case scenario.

The challenge of exponential growth kept in check via human intervention is that the final numbers are extremely sensitive to when you turn around. In this case just a few days makes a huge difference, as that means twice as many at the peak. And we do want to stop it while it is growing exponentially.

Letting it burn out on its own means that our leaders have failed.
And that we have chosen our leaders poorly.

Most states (and nations) are taking extreme measures. They are not letting this “burn out.”

It depends on the American people and their actions.

We have to see a major turnaround during the month of April.

If it's not under control, Fauci's number could soon become a reality.

That’s true.

People have to practice social distancing, etc.

But the trends look like less than 100,000.

The point is that its exponential. And not a simple arithmetic increase. Its not like the size of your grocery bill when guests stay over. Its like the number of bed bugs in your apartment even after you kill 99 percent of them...they bounce back in a heartbeat.

US cases went from 32 thousand to 311,000, in only 15 days.
Deaths from 408 to 8492 in the same 15 days.

The daily increase is actually less percentage, day to day. Starting out at 25 percent a day, but went down to 12 percent.

But the angle of the curve on the graph is still going up a steepening angle.


It increased by ten fold in 15 days. Lets say it goes up by only five fold in the next 15 days. And then by 2.5 fold in the 15 days after. That would mean by May 5 there will be about 3.8 million cases in the US (more than the whole world now). The U.S. death rate WAS holding steady at 1.5 percent of cases (better than the world average of 4 percent), but lately seems to have gone up to almost three percent.

So the deaths by April 5 should be between 1.5 and 3 percent of 3.8 million. About 60K to 120k. So... 30 days from now we might well be...well on the way to meeting that quota of 200k deaths- a third, to maybe even two thirds there.

Whoopieeeee!