Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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I think we may be at a verge of a major pandemic. So I am exploring how to survive it.

On 30 July 2024, 12:09 pm I discussed an early method for treating an H5N1 infection that is caused by a mosquito bite. I wrote:

4. Accidents can happen. What to do immediately after being bitten by a mosquito? Treat the bit with Tecnu Topical Analgesic Anti-Itch Spray (Diphenhydramine HCl 2% ).

But mosquitoes are not the only insect that can transmit this infection. Many decades ago, I was bitten by another insect called a Chigger. I used a different product that stopped the spread of the infection. It is called ChiggereX. It contains 10% Benzocaine. So I will add this product to item #4 in the future.

H5N1 has been spreading across a variety of bird and animal species recently. One animal causes me concern, it is cats. Many cats live within our homes.

Influenza A(H5N1) Infection in Companion Animals

Avian influenza A(H5N1) infections in cats have been reported in the United States, Poland, South Korea, and France.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported that more than 50% of infected dairy farms reported having ill or dead cats.

Cats have presented with varying degrees of clinical signs including respiratory and neurologic signs often with fatal outcomes.

The Tip of the Iceberg

“I am very confident there are more people being infected than we know about,” said Gregory Gray, the infectious disease researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch who led the study, posted online and under review to be published in a leading infectious disease journal. “Largely, that’s because our surveillance has been so poor.”

As bird flu cases go underreported, health officials risk being slow to notice if the virus were to become more contagious. A large surge of infections outside of farmworker communities would trigger the government’s flu surveillance system, but by then it might be too late to contain.

Source: Bird flu cases are going undetected, study suggests. That’s a problem for everyone.

Scarpino (Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist who specializes in disease surveillance) said the CDC’s surveillance would be triggered if people started dying from the bird flu. The 13 known cases have been mild. And the system will probably pick up surges if the virus spreads beyond farmworkers and their closest contacts — but by then it may be too late to contain.

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I might add a little more information. These were not normal farm workers. They were selected to destroy the birds/animals killed or dying from H5N1. They wore very protective outfits and clothing to prevent them from becoming infected. Yet they still got infected. They were quickly treated with the drug Oseltamivir and as a result survived.

The article then went on to say, "One of the two people who had antibodies worked in the farm’s cafeteria adjacent to the milking parlor — alongside farmworkers but not cattle." Some infectious diseases can be passed from person to person. Some are transmitted by insects such as mosquitoes, ticks, flees, flies and others.

Diseases Caused by Insects and Arachnids

I came across an article today. It began with:

You know how COVID-19 started spreading quietly in 2019, but no one knew it yet? Well, bird flu is doing the exact opposite. It’s giving us countless warning signs that we could be in the early days of a growing crisis, and yet we are still acting blissfully unaware. Since 2022, a bird flu pandemic has caused the deaths of over 100 million birds in the U.S. poultry industry and almost half a billion farmed birds around the world.

For years, agribusiness and government officials have dismissed the risk posed by factory farms, but the disease’s novel jump to cattle and its spread from mammal to mammal makes the danger of this mutating pathogen harder to downplay.

** The world is currently seeing the fastest-spreading, largest-ever outbreak of H5N1, a highly contagious, deadly strain of avian influenza. Scientists say this virus now presents an existential threat to the world’s biodiversity, with the risk to humans rising as it continues to leap the species barrier, reaching new host species.

** H5N1 has already impacted at least 485 bird species and 48 mammal species, killing seals, sea otters, dolphins, foxes, California condors, albatrosses, bald eagles, cougars, polar bears and a zoo tiger. Since it broke out in Europe in 2020, this virus has spread globally. Carried by birds along migratory pathways, it has invaded six continents, including Antarctica.

** This current H5N1 animal pandemic (or panzootic) was caused by humans: A mild form of avian flu carried by wild birds turned deadly when it infected domestic poultry. Many industrial-scale poultry farms adjoin wetlands where migrating birds congregate, facilitating rapid spread.

** The toll on some bird and mammal populations has been devastating. With continued outbreaks, some imperiled species could be pushed to the brink, with wildlife already fighting to survive against a changing climate, disappearing habitat and other stressors.

Source: Animal apocalypse: Deadly bird flu infects hundreds of species pole-to-pole

Brown skuas and south polar skuas, two gull-like species that nest in Antarctica, are sometimes called the “pirates of the Southern seas.” These migratory seabirds are fierce, competitive predators that hunt or scavenge anything, from eggs and adult birds to seafood, mammals or garbage.

“They’re really tough animals — and they’re dying,” says Antonio Quesada, director of the Spanish Polar Committee.

He gravely recounts why this season’s field work in the Antarctic was like no other: A lethal strain of avian flu, H5N1, breached this fragile ecosystem in February. Only a handful of specially trained researchers were allowed onshore in outbreak sites, garbed in hazmat suits to prevent contagion and spread.

The true scale of the event is still unknown, but reports were grim. In the Falkland Islands, H5N1 killed 10,000 black-browed albatross and ravaged a gentoo penguin colony. Scientists discovered a mass skua die-off: 50 carcasses littered a Beak Island nesting colony of 130.

Quesada has rarely seen a single dead skua in 20 years’ work in Antarctica. “They’re an indicator species. If they’re dying, what does it mean for other birds?” he asks.

The threat posed by H5N1 extends far beyond the frozen South. Few people realize that the world is currently gripped in another serious pandemic — or, to be exact, a panzootic, the animal equivalent. This virus has now infected more than 500 bird and mammal species.

Since it emerged in 2020 in Europe, this “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)” strain has blazed a trail of death across the planet, the largest outbreak in history. The virus is both lethal and unusually transmissible, jumping between birds, mammals and livestock with frightening agility.

H5N1 has been carried worldwide by migrating birds. But new research shows that this current strain (dubbed clade 2.3.4.4b) can now spread directly between mammals, with frightening implications. It seems that “H5N1 viruses are becoming more evolutionarily flexible and adapting to mammals in new ways,” the study’s authors write, which “could have global consequences for wildlife, humans, and/or livestock.”

Walzer warns, “H5N1 now presents an existential threat to the world’s biodiversity.”

Last edited by jimmy m on 06 Aug 2024, 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Actually ...I saw a dead adult crow on the grass in front of another building in my apartment complex yesterday.

The last time I saw a dead crow was on the front lawn of a doctor's home/office, and that was going to- and that was during West Nile Virus scare back in the early 2000s. The doc said she had already told the authorities about it.

So this recent dead bird kinda spooked me. Might be related to what you're talking about.

There is at least 485 bird species currently experiencing the H5N1 infections. This article describes how it is being transmitted to CROWS.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) infection in crows through ingestion of infected crow carcasses

Wastewater Tracking is Dead. The U.S. Government Killed the Program.
They decided to delete this program just at the beginning of the H5N1 pandemic.

COVID data quietly disappears while cases rise

This story focuses primarily on COVID. But wastewater tracking was also being used to provide data on H5N1. An outbreak was beginning in the San Francisco area of Los Angeles a few months ago and then suddenly all the data disappeared.

In the article California-based engineer and scientist Patrick Vaughan said. “If we say bird flu with the H5N1 is our next pandemic and we’re continuously degrading our wastewater facilities, how are we going to be able to monitor and catch up with that is the big question."

H5N1 is not like COVID. It strikes the healthy young adults and middle age people, most of our population. It is extremely deadly. Over a 50 percent death rate if you catch it. Also when you begin to show symptoms, you die very quickly in many cases in the next 24 hours.

I came across an interesting article that was just published in Nature.

Blowflies are potential vector for avian influenza virus at enzootic area in Japan

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) poses a significant threat to both domestic and wild birds globally. The avian influenza virus, known for environmental contamination and subsequent oral infection in birds, necessitates careful consideration of alternative introduction routes during HPAI outbreaks. This study focuses on blowflies (genus Calliphora), in particular Calliphora nigribarbis, attracted to decaying animals and feces, which migrate to lowland areas of Japan from northern or mountainous regions in early winter, coinciding with HPAI season. Our investigation aims to delineate the role of blowflies as HPAI vectors by conducting a virus prevalence survey in a wild bird HPAI-enzootic area. In December 2022, 648 Calliphora nigribarbis were collected. Influenza virus RT-PCR testing identified 14 virus-positive samples (2.2% prevalence), with the highest occurrence observed near the crane colony (14.9%). Subtyping revealed the presence of H5N1 and HxN1 in some samples. Subsequent collections in December 2023 identified one HPAI virus-positive specimen from 608 collected flies in total, underscoring the potential involvement of blowflies in HPAI transmission. Our observations suggest C. nigribarbis may acquire the HPAI virus from deceased wild birds directly or from fecal materials from infected birds, highlighting the need to add blowflies as a target of HPAI vector control.

I have asserted in this thread that insects (primarily mosquitoes) are the primary transmission agent for H5N1.

I came across an article that discussed how the farm industry is dealing with or NOT DEALING WITH bird flu in the United States.

100 million dead birds later, avian flu persists. Blame our policies.

In a way we are throwing money at the problem but not really solving the problem.

The approach is not working.

Here’s what the USDA pays them for: indemnity for each culled bird, depopulation and disposal, compensation for materials destroyed and “virus elimination” such as disinfection of housing structures. As of the start of this year, indemnity payments alone were at $715 million; total costs are likely well over $1 billion by now. Bipartisan legislation would further increase compensation levels.

Why not just vaccinate? Vaccinating flocks would, according to current trade agreements, prohibit export to many countries and thereby preclude huge earnings from the $5 billion poultry export sector. Vaccination is, therefore, prohibited.

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Vaccinating Chickens - This is an interesting approach and I think the U.S. should try it. Somehow I do not think it will work but it is good to give it a go. As we saw in COVID, the virus was always on the move, constantly changing. This made vaccination unreliable. You were always 5 steps behind where the virus was at the moment. But I think we should do it. Why? Because some people are proposing to use the same approach on humans, should this pandemic explode.

So therefor if it works in chickens, it might work in humans. But if it doesn't work in chickens, we need to develop a very different approach.

We Are Flying Blind

We’re Applying Lessons From Covid to Bird Flu. That’s Not Good.

Indications that H5N1 may have jumped to mammals first appeared in 2022, when the virus killed hundreds of seals in New England and Quebec that summer, and then that fall there was a mass infection event at a Spanish mink farm. Epidemiologists have been warning about the risks of an overdue bird flu pandemic for decades, and so each new development arrived like the next beat in an already familiar story, almost too perfectly plotted to alarm. The outbreaks on American dairy farms began this March and the first human case in the United States since then was identified in April, which means that it has now been more than three full months since a pathogen long identified as among the most worrisome potential sources of a new pandemic infected an American this year. There is still nothing like a serious plan to even properly monitor the spread.

(In the U.S.) The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has cited the low number of cases to justify its inaction, but it has also moved remarkably slowly to promote the kind of widespread surveillance testing that could actually identify cases.

Most American dairy farms are not regularly testing for H5N1, partly because the decision to do so has been left up to them, and in fact have “refused to cooperate with efforts to chart how deeply the virus has infiltrated U.S. herds,” as Helen Branswell of STAT has reported, “seeing the possible stigma of admitting they have H5N1-infected cows as a greater risk than the virus itself.”

In June, Robert Redfield, former director of the C.D.C., echoed many epidemiologists in predicting that “it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic.”

In this cloud of ignorance, there is an encouraging silver lining: that the human cases we have identified suggest that in its current form, the bird flu does not appear to be as virulent as long feared or casually assumed. (Actually this is not totally true. One of the ways the special teams that disposed of the dead and dying chickens not only wore protective clothing and masks but even with this additional protection, they still got infected. As a result they were rapidly treated with a prescription drug called Oseltamivir phosphate [Tamiflu])

A much celebrated project testing wastewater for circulating pathogens in 41 states was abruptly shut down last month. (This ban destroyed the U.S. ability to track the detailed regional spread of H5N1. So just when it is most needed, the U.S. government decided to pull the plug.)

Also the article then goes on to discussing mask. Many states are deleting mask wearing. There is a reason for this. Many people have used masks as a way to hide their identity. They are performing criminal acts wearing masks and as a result are allowed to commit crimes unpunished. Also, H5N1 in my opinion is a very different beast then COVID. It is not spread in the air but rather by the bites of mosquitoes or other insects. If so mask wearing provides no advantage to avoiding becoming infected. As said in the beginning of the article, "We’re Applying Lessons From Covid to Bird Flu. That’s Not Good"

West Nile Virus & H5N1 - Birds of a Feather

These two viral diseases may be related, so understanding the viruses, how people become infected, how the disease damages and kills humans might lead to methods for minimizing the risk in humans.

This is an article from The Ornithological Council in 2010. The group represents a consortium of scientific ornithological societies in the Western Hemisphere – consulted with experts to compile this fact sheet about the risks of HPAI H5N1, West Nile Virus, and other avian zoonotic pathogens.

According to West Nile Virus, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1, and other zoonotic diseases: what ornithologists and bird banders should know

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (“HPAI H5N1”) first made news in 2004. Through 2010, only seven human cases of H5N1 HPAI infection appeared to be related to contact with wild birds, and these resulted from the plucking of feathers from dead swans in Azerbaijan.

This society updated their original article in 2017. In the Update it said:

West Nile Virus (WNV) first isolated in 1937 in Uganda, outbreaks in Israel (1951-1954), France (1962, 2000), and South Africa (1974). It reached the United States in 1999.

West Nile is an insect-borne flavivirus commonly found in Africa, western Asia and the Middle East, and, since 1999, in the Western Hemisphere. In North America, it has been detected in at least 48 species of mosquitoes and over 250 species of birds (USGS 2010). It is now found in every state except Alaska and Hawaii.

It has been confirmed that WNV may be shed from the cloacal and oral cavities (Komar et al. 2002). Therefore, contact with droppings, dropping-contaminated feathers, or the cloaca may result in exposure to WNV.

As a result: Take same reasonable precautions to minimize risks –of various diseases -posed by mosquito bites. Reasonable measures include protective clothing (long sleeves, long pants, socks), and the use of DEET or other insect repellants –with repeated applications over time.

Another article provides a summary, West Nile Virus

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a potentially serious mosquito-borne disease. More than 30,000 people in the U.S. have been infected with WNV since 1999. Occasionally, an infected person may develop more severe diseases such as "West Nile encephalitis," "Westmosquito Nile meningitis" or "West Nile meningoencephalitis."

Encephalitis refers to an inflammation of the brain, meningitis is an inflammation of the membrane around the brain and the spinal cord, and meningoencephalitis refers to inflammation of the brain and the membrane surrounding it. Almost 13,000 of the individuals who have been reported as having West Nile virus since 1999 have been seriously ill, and more than 1,200 have died.

Mosquitoes become infected when they feed on infected birds. These illnesses affect birds, animals and humans, causing flu-like symptoms in people who are bitten by infected mosquitoes. Only certain types of mosquitoes carry WNV. A mosquito must first become infected by feeding on a bird (host) that has the virus and then bite a human or animal to pass the disease along. Certain species of birds (especially crows and blue jays) can also get sick and die from the disease, as can horses, although like most people, like birds and horses, show no symptoms.

Indiana State Fair

Today I am headed to Ground Zero of a Deadly War Zone. According to the Internet the Attendance for the 18-day event reached 840,414 people. Yesterday the local newspaper published an article that described an outbreak of West Nile Virus (WNV) detected in my county of Indiana. This is a disease like H5N1 (in my humble opinion) that is spread by mosquitoes. The article said "A mosquito sample collected in Greene County has tested positive for WNV." The article then goes on to say, "Indiana Department of Health (IDOH) expects WNV activity to continue across the state during mosquito season, which continues through the first hard freeze.".

The article then goes on to describe protective measures when outdoors, "Apply an EPA-registered insect repellent containing DEET, picaridin, IR3535, oil of lemon eucalyptus or para-menthane-diol to clothes and exposed skin."

So we are off to the State Fair. This includes my wife, children and grandchildren. But we will protect ourselves by applying a little dab of DEET to a few spots on out bodies. We will be using REPEL 100 Insect Repellent which contains DEET. The bottle reads "Repels mosquitoes that may transmit the Zika, West Nile, Dengue & Chikungunya Virus. And Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1.

So I began to think about the Spanish Flu and the outbreak of H1N1 during 1918 that destroyed over 50 to 100 million people. The world population was much smaller then. The Spanish Flu was also known as the Purple Death.

One article described it in the following way, Purple Death: The Great Flu of 1918

By May 1918, influenza began to subside in the United States. But the ordeal was by no means over. Soldiers at Fort Riley, now ready for battle, incubated the virus during their long, cramped voyage to France. Once they hit French shores, the virus exploded, striking the Allied forces and Central Powers with equal force. The Americans fell ill with "three-day fever" or "purple death." The French caught "purulent bronchitis." The Italians suffered "sand fly fever." German hospitals filled with victims of Blitzkatarrh or "Flanders fever."

No matter what they called it, the virus attacked everyone similarly. It started like any other influenza case, with a sore throat, chills and fever. Then came the deadly twist: the virus ravaged its victim's lungs. Sometimes within hours, patients succumbed to complete respiratory failure. Autopsies showed hard, red lungs drenched in fluid. A microscopic look at diseased lung tissue revealed that the alveoli, the lungs' normally air-filled cells, were so full of fluid that victims literally drowned. The slow suffocation began when patients presented with a unique symptom: mahogany spots over their cheekbones. Within hours these patients turned a bluish-black hue indicative of cyanosis, or lack of oxygen. When triaging scores of new patients, nurses often looked at the patients' feet first. Those with black feet were considered beyond help and were carted off to die.

Interesting, the Italians may have labeled it the most accurately by calling it "sand fly fever." Sand fly fever (SF) is an arthropod-borne viral disease, also known as “Phlebotomus fever”, “mosquito fever”, three-day fever or “Papatacci fever”. It is transmitted by Phlebotomus papatasi, starts with acute onset of high fever, and lasts for three days.

What made this influenza especially baffling to health care workers was that it attacked healthy, strong adults most often. Normally, flu is only life-threatening to the elderly, young children and people with compromised immune systems. Many adults become sick, but very few die. Spanish flu turned the tables on this pattern. Disproportionate numbers of men and women-especially pregnant women-died, leaving their orphaned children behind.

In the early 1900s, the primary means of heavy transportation was horses. Cows provided milk but most of the milk was unpasteurized around the world during the First World War.

Pasteurization was first used in the United States in the 1890s after the discovery of germ theory to control the hazards of highly contagious bacterial diseases, including bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis, that could be easily transmitted to humans through the drinking of raw milk.

Source: United States raw milk debate

Even today many people in the U.S. still drink unpasteurized milk or cheeses that are made from raw unpasteurized milk.

So What is the Bottom Line: If the Spanish Flu (H1N1) Pandemic of 1917 was caused by people being bitten by infected mosquitoes, then a very similar diseases called Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) may also be caused by people being bitten by infected mosquitoes.

I came across a recent article that described an explosion of H5N1 in animals in Colorado.

Bird flu cases now detected in domestic cats in Colorado

The article describes 5 cats that had developed H5N1. It said:

The details regarding H5 bird flu in domestic cats on the CVMA website said two of the six cases were “indoor-only cats with no direct exposures to the virus,” according to the post.

Three were “known indoor/outdoor cats” that hunted mice and/or small birds as prey and also spent time indoors with their owners.

So H5N1 is showing signs of entering our homes. The article then goes on to recommend the following.

The association also recommends you contact a veterinarian immediately if your pet has decreased energy and appetite, which progress to neurologic signs like a lack of coordination, inability to stand, tremors, and seizures. The cat may also show respiratory signs, including nasal mucus coming out of the nose, coughing, or sneezing.