Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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The number of flu cases in 2011 was 21,000,000. In 2012 it was 9,000,000. In 2013 it was 34,000,000.

Nothing special was done in 2012 to bring it from 21,000,000 down to 9,000. It just played out that way.

It did not go from 9,000,000 to 34,000,000 the next year because less precautions were taken.

Each flu year has had a substantial curve where cases grew exponentially and then down trended after peaking.

Last edited by EzraS on 05 Apr 2020, 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

The other problem is that if you base your predictions on deaths, rather than testing data, there is a time lag. And with exponential growth, you need to act quickly. Suppose it takes 15 days for the average person to die after becoming ill, and it doubles every three days. That is five doublings!

Even an incompetent leader can be expected to do drastic things when a situation gets really bad. Question is, will those actions come early enough to matter?

What further actions are you suggesting?

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just trying to point out difficult it is to predict exponential growth if you insist on "hard data" like death statistics and then arguing about their validity. Exponential growth may not give you time for that.

There is an old expression, closing the barn door after the horse has left.

Let’s see how this thing plays out. Most of the US is not experiencing exponential growth in either new cases or deaths.

I think if the 2018 flu with it's 45 million cases and 61,000 deaths in the US had been covered the way this virus is, it would have looked highly alarming.

Even with 45 million cases spread out evenly, that still comes to 123,287 cases per day. C19 is currently at 34,196.

It seems a forgone conclusion that at its peak the 2018 flu was at several hundred thousand cases per day in the US.

There were also 810,000 flu related hospitalizations in 2018. Spread out evenly comes to 2,219 per day.

The problem with getting back to business is that one of the big businesses in the USA is healthcare. People can't get hip replacements if all the hospital resource are tied up. That is the problem. Companies decided it was more profitable to have just enough resources for what is typically needed. Why have a doctors and nurses sitting around, waiting for something to happen? A quick search suggests 3.65 trillion dollars a year. Nearly as big as the federal government.

I don't know if you noticed, but in a lot of countries the healthcare workers are immigrants. Precisely the people targeted by some politicians to gain votes. A Muslim doctor or nurse is still a targeting Muslim. Maybe getting them to go back home will end up being for the good, as maybe they will save more in their home country than they could in richer country they trying to earn a living in.

Personally, I may not go out for a month, maybe longer, if things continue to go the way they are going.
Not even for groceries. I have plenty of rice and pasta. As well as dried fruit and nuts.

Resignation would probably be the one that would save the most American lives.

Whoa. Listen to this US military man talk about how something’s seriously wrong with the supply chain of medical supplies.. the feds are funnelling resources to private companies who are then selling them off to the highest bidding states at several times their market prices - all paid for by your tax dollars.

https://www.facebook.com/StandWithMuell ... /?vh=e&d=n

He suggests more direct military involvement of logistics instead of this nonsense. The crap that’s happening sounds like some opportunistic profiteering dreamt up by trump and his people.

It’s craziness like this that’s not only going to cost a lot of money, but also a lot of time and lives.

Dr. Anthony Fauci says it’s likely coronavirus will become ‘seasonal’

^yes, that’s been said for over a month now. It’ll rotate back and forth between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres just like the flu.

They’re just hoping there’s a little more herd immunity to it as time goes on And that a vaccine can be developed.

Another news clip I listened to this morning had a Congressman (or Governor?) from Oregon saying “Oh God yes,” states have to work together to help each other with supplies due to a complete lack of federal leadership.

He’s not wrong and I wish them all the best. But even more I wish trump would resign right now, sacrifice his career to save his people like Captain Cozier did. Let someone else step in and Lead.. let the military utilize their logistical expertise, cut profiteers out of the loop, save time and lives etc.

THAT would help ensure Fauci’s estimates don’t come to fruition.

It probably will become seasonal. It just will not be a major crisis in future years. 9,000 deaths from a seasonal virus is far from unusual. That supposedly only 1% of the US population has caught this virus is highly unusual.

From some Facebook share, post made by Garth Ancier:

“I keep watching these Trump Covid-19 updates - and they keep getting more and more insane. Today he is back to his nutty "we've got to open this country up again" screed...no matter that we are well on our way to the highest death toll of any nation ON THE GLOBE. Order the remaining Governors to lock down their states: "No way...they are doing a great job and I would never mandate a national shutdown". A true recipe for a longer and more terrible pandemic.

New York state is getting its Ventilators from China - and Oregon? (...and had its highest fatality total just today)

So, anyone here thinking that the moron in chief (or his utterly incompetent son-in-law) may actually lift the national emergency on April 30? The 100-240 thousand deaths are based upon a shut down through May 30...

Apologies for being so frank (and yes, angry), but this is the worst US government response to ANYTHING in my lifetime.”

If the bolded bit is factual And trump says F it, get back to work (on my re-election campaign economy) then we may be looking at a very different revised Fauci Forecast..

I disagree. Life probably will never go back to the way it was pre pandemic. I think from now on seasonal flu's will cause much more anxiety and be dealt with much more harshly. Maybe not total lockdowns but contact tracing, targeted lockdowns, some form of social distancing, people taking your temperature before going in public places, mask and glove wearing etc.

In the early 70s even with thousands of bombings lockdowns were something that happened during prison riots. In 2013 Boston and surrounding suburbs were locked down for days until the Marathon Bombing suspect was caught. The tipping points were Columbine and 9/11. Besides accepting lockdowns people have accepted previously unthinkable government and private invasions of privacy. Coronavirus is a similar game changer. Prior to this the public notice of the flu never went beyond reminders to get your flu shot and a few media stories if it was a "bad" year. What all the comparisons to the flu has done is educate people how really costly the flu is. I can't see how this is undone.

I tend to agree with you that it's likely this virus may change human behavior for generations and in ways that were unthinkable a few months ago.

After a catastrophe people are driven to "returning to normal" as soon as possible, even if it's dangerous or not wise to do so. Will that same thing happen with this virus? I think it's too soon to tell for a number of reasons including:

>We still don't know enough about this virus to actually know how harmful, damaging or contagious it is. For example, there's speculation that people who get it badly and recover may have long term diminished lung capacity (lifetime?). Does influenza ravage a person's lungs that way? No. Brain damage is something else that I read could be a possible repercussion from this disease.

>We still don't know if it was man made. If it was, then we could be dealing with a concocted super-virus that isn't natural and therefore maybe "herd immunity" isn't possible in the same way or to the same degree as with a natural virus. Look at it this way: Many people can overcome many types of viruses, but if this virus is man made, what if it's in a way analogous to a radioactive metal in the sense that it will always be extremely harmful to the population? Radioactivity is always harmful to humans. Human's don't build up "herd immunity" to radioactivity and there's no vaccine for it.

>What if it mutates so often that there's no effective vaccine for it? There's certainly no vaccine for the common cold, some strains of which are a type of corona virus. So what if humans end up being perpetually vulnerable to this disease and what if this disease remains a perpetual scourge?

Given its extreme contagiousness and if the points above end up becoming a reality, that would change the behavior of humanity profoundly. Humans would literally interact with other humans thinking that it's highly probable that each is diseased and that other people are dangerously pestilent.

Perhaps there would be a rise in or a reversion back to tribalism of sorts; closed communities where outsiders are strictly quarantined before entry into the community or the area.