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North Korea fires on disputed South Korean island

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visagrunt
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24 Nov 2010, 1:38 pm

North Korea with Kim Jong Il is a damn sight more stable than North Korea would be with a power vacuum. His newly elevated Crown Prince does not yet appear to have the crucial backing of the army and the death of the father now could certainly open the way for a very destabilizing power struggle.

This is the last thing that anyone (least of all the PRC, Russia, Japan and South Korea) wants.

A limited amount of aggression using conventional weapons is the kind of muscle flexing that we have come to expect from North Korea, and the kind that we are going to have to put up with until someone can develop a strategic approach to regieme change.

There will be public statements that this is unacceptable aggression; there will be private statements that this kind of adventure is not a helpful contribution to talks to regularize North Korea's diplomatic and trade positions; and the Chinese will be called upon to quietly put some stick about.


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24 Nov 2010, 6:23 pm

Roxas_XIII wrote:
Lovely. This is where the clusterf**k begins, people. North and South are gonna go at it, and once they do the sh** will hit the fan. America, Europe, and Japan will side with SK, Russia and China will side with NK, and best case scenario we have Cold War II, worst case: World War III.

I just can't see how China or Russia can sanely declare their allegiance with North Korea. I know that they have ties to Russia and whatnot, they're all Communist countries, but if you took a decent look at the conditions in North Korea, the state of the people as opposed to the government, and the fact that the Ill dynasty is full of paranoid warmongerers that should'nt even be interacting with the general population, let alone governing them. That entire nation is something bad waiting to happen, and if they do provoke someone like the US it would be wise to not be on their side lest you catch the wrath of the Allies. But then again, they are all united under the sickle and star, so I guess there's no other option.


Not going to happen. if war breaks out the war would be over in a week. The NK do not have a modern military nor a modern airforce; they fly around in antiquated 1950s jet fighters. It would not be in NK interests to wage a war because without the support of Russia and China, who wouldn't support the NK unless a US-led invasion force got too close to Chinese border, the NK will be left to duke it out on their own. A military catastrophy would spark the end of the Kim Jong-Il regime.