30 Sep 2012, 9:19 pm
Pyrite wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
They can keep denying the truth, but it only means reality will hurt all the more come election day.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
All I see is someone (you), rooting for the destruction of this country. We are projected to have a debt of over $20 trillion dollars by 2016 if Obama's spending binge continues.
Hopefully we see another situation like the 1980 election in which the polls all said Carter was ahead, but Reagan won by a landslide.
That would be a very compelling point if anything remotely like that had happened....ever.
This site gives polls for the whole period leading up to the election.
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/0 ... -campaign/
Reagan started leading substantially in the polls in June, Romney is not making that schedule by a long shot.
As for polls right before election day? Well...
Quote:
But let's also consider 5), and that is: the all-the-pollsters-were-wrong meme is actually false to begin with. See this article and graph, which show that contrary to myth, Reagan actually led in tracking polls for most of the final months of the campaign. Yet you will hear or read every day that Reagan charged from "far behind," according to the polls, to win, just like Romney can (will) do.
Let's consider the most prominent poll of all. It's true that Gallup's final pre-debate poll showed a sinking Carter up by 3 percent—but a few days later its polling gave Reagan a 3 percent edge before Election Day. Of course, he won by more than that, but then again, Gallup does not poll on Election Day.
Also: even before the debate, two of the other leading polls at the time: AP and Harris/ABC, gave Reagan the lead. After the debate, they showed Reagan with a 5 percent margin. In fact, virtually every leading poll gave Reagan at least a 1 percent lead two or three days before the election, and many gave him a wider edge.
Let's consider the most prominent poll of all. It's true that Gallup's final pre-debate poll showed a sinking Carter up by 3 percent—but a few days later its polling gave Reagan a 3 percent edge before Election Day. Of course, he won by more than that, but then again, Gallup does not poll on Election Day.
Also: even before the debate, two of the other leading polls at the time: AP and Harris/ABC, gave Reagan the lead. After the debate, they showed Reagan with a 5 percent margin. In fact, virtually every leading poll gave Reagan at least a 1 percent lead two or three days before the election, and many gave him a wider edge.
http://www.thenation.com/blog/170230/an ... agan-1980#
I'm afraid you're just plain wrong on this one Inuyasha.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/po ... html?_r=2&
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/2 ... agan/print
You were saying...
Kraichgauer
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Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 48,466
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
30 Sep 2012, 9:51 pm
John_Browning wrote:
I think it was the daily caller that originally posted this graph, but the diagonal red line was added by me. Here's a plot of the percentage the polls are skewed in favor of the democratic voters vs. the percentage Obama leads in the polls. The red line is where the oversampling of democrats would be equal to Obama's lead, and as you can see, the percentage that democrats were oversampled is greater than the percentage Obama leads. On the other hand, Rasmussen slightly oversampled Republicans, but shows a Romney lead greater than the oversampling. As for Fox News specifically, they show a 6% oversampling and about a 5.5% Obama lead.
I'm not going to call this rock-solid proof that Romney is winning, but I do think it is cause to re-examine more closely how well Obama is fairing in the polls.
Actually, despite what Fox's talking heads say, their network's own polls showed Obama ahead. I doubt Fox could be accused of oversampling Democrats.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
John_Browning
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30 Sep 2012, 10:11 pm
Kraichgauer
Veteran
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 48,466
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
30 Sep 2012, 10:22 pm
Pyrite
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Joined: 27 Mar 2012
Age: 38
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,247
Location: Mid-Atlantic United States
02 Oct 2012, 7:14 pm
Inuyasha wrote:
Pyrite wrote:
Inuyasha wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
They can keep denying the truth, but it only means reality will hurt all the more come election day.
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
All I see is someone (you), rooting for the destruction of this country. We are projected to have a debt of over $20 trillion dollars by 2016 if Obama's spending binge continues.
Hopefully we see another situation like the 1980 election in which the polls all said Carter was ahead, but Reagan won by a landslide.
That would be a very compelling point if anything remotely like that had happened....ever.
This site gives polls for the whole period leading up to the election.
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/0 ... -campaign/
Reagan started leading substantially in the polls in June, Romney is not making that schedule by a long shot.
As for polls right before election day? Well...
Quote:
But let's also consider 5), and that is: the all-the-pollsters-were-wrong meme is actually false to begin with. See this article and graph, which show that contrary to myth, Reagan actually led in tracking polls for most of the final months of the campaign. Yet you will hear or read every day that Reagan charged from "far behind," according to the polls, to win, just like Romney can (will) do.
Let's consider the most prominent poll of all. It's true that Gallup's final pre-debate poll showed a sinking Carter up by 3 percent—but a few days later its polling gave Reagan a 3 percent edge before Election Day. Of course, he won by more than that, but then again, Gallup does not poll on Election Day.
Also: even before the debate, two of the other leading polls at the time: AP and Harris/ABC, gave Reagan the lead. After the debate, they showed Reagan with a 5 percent margin. In fact, virtually every leading poll gave Reagan at least a 1 percent lead two or three days before the election, and many gave him a wider edge.
Let's consider the most prominent poll of all. It's true that Gallup's final pre-debate poll showed a sinking Carter up by 3 percent—but a few days later its polling gave Reagan a 3 percent edge before Election Day. Of course, he won by more than that, but then again, Gallup does not poll on Election Day.
Also: even before the debate, two of the other leading polls at the time: AP and Harris/ABC, gave Reagan the lead. After the debate, they showed Reagan with a 5 percent margin. In fact, virtually every leading poll gave Reagan at least a 1 percent lead two or three days before the election, and many gave him a wider edge.
http://www.thenation.com/blog/170230/an ... agan-1980#
I'm afraid you're just plain wrong on this one Inuyasha.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/po ... html?_r=2&
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/09/2 ... agan/print
You were saying...
I was saying (although you clearly weren't reading) that the AVERAGE OF POLLS (which is what is greatly favoring Obama in the current case) favored reagan even before the debate. Thus:
Quote:
There is a published Gallup poll not included in that report showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27. Whether six or the eight points cited today, Carter's advantage in Gallup polling was offset by similarly large Reagan leads in NBC-Associated Press or DMI (Reagan's pollsters) polls.
The bottom line is that there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan's breakthrough debate performance.
The bottom line is that there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan's breakthrough debate performance.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind ... eback.html
THIS is what Reagan's "comeback" actually looked like:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107 ... back-myth#
Reagan takes a big lead, which narrows in the period coming up to the debate after which he brakes away again. Your attempt to make this work for Romney is has no more bases the the NYT article you cited did when it tried to do so for McCain.
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