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Brexit deal agreed on as Johnson heads to EU summit

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Biscuitman
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20 Oct 2019, 4:26 pm

vermontsavant wrote:
I heard when Johnson sent the letter of extention to the EU he didn't sign it and requested it be rejected.


It was what was widely predicted for weeks he would do. His colleagues in the ERG kept suggesting he had some masterplan up his sleeve, and it turned out he just had this, which he was always expected to do anyway. The EU appeared to instantly dismiss the other stuff and say they have received his request for an extension.

I would expect then to keep quiet, or even make suggestions that they might not extend, for a few days while more voting takes place, then if we haven't voted out under WA4 they will offer an extension.

The next few days could be spectacular. Johnson showed his hand on saturday without getting to play it. The DUP now know he will throw them under the bus. He is going to have to reveal the detail of his WA so it can be scrutinised, the final bill is also amendable so there could be all manor of amendments put forward on that (2nd referendum amendment and customs union amendment are expected) which would completely transform the brexit offer. We could end up with the Govt not even tabling the brexit vote in the end, or bizarrely tabling it and then voting against it themselves.

It looked like Johnson just about had the numbers to get his WA through on saturday too. It's all about the amendments this week I reckon. Any of them get through and his numbers could drop, or rocket upwards depending on which one it is.



JohnPowell
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20 Oct 2019, 4:47 pm

Lol, all it was about was stopping that 'deal'.


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21 Oct 2019, 2:30 am

A customs union amendment may well end up being the talk point of the week. It would wreck the WA, divide the Tories and may end up seeing the WA pulled completely and a GE demanded (even though Johnsom could just call one himself through a VoNC)

The queens speech vote is yet to take place too. Johnson could be the first PM in almost 100 years to lose it. Protocol is that if you lose you resign. No way would he do that though :lol:



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21 Oct 2019, 4:07 am

We definitely need an election.


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Biscuitman
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21 Oct 2019, 6:36 am

Agree, we should be having one soon though. Most predictions are Dec 5th or 12th.



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21 Oct 2019, 7:07 am

I hope so cause I had a bet earlier in the year that we'd have an election this year :lol:


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Biscuitman
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21 Oct 2019, 8:44 am

Sounding like the SNP are putting forward a general election amendment so you may know sooner rather than later



JohnPowell
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21 Oct 2019, 10:58 am

But I don't want the 'deal' to go through.


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Biscuitman
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21 Oct 2019, 11:29 am

You and me both



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21 Oct 2019, 12:25 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
You and me both
I don't think the deal will go through,there now barred from voting on it twice.For practical purposes the deal is dead.


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21 Oct 2019, 12:52 pm

We need to just get the hell out of the rancid EU. It is becoming an Empire and will have control over our army and foreign policy.


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Biscuitman
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21 Oct 2019, 1:45 pm

vermontsavant wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
You and me both
I don't think the deal will go through,there now barred from voting on it twice.For practical purposes the deal is dead.


Parliamentary process says you are not allowed to table the same vote twice within one parliamentary session. Even though the vote didn't happen it was still tabled and so they now cannot have that again in this session.

That means they have moved on to voting on the Bill instead as a way of passing it. The Bill has all the legal text in it, and all thr detail Johnson didn't want to reveal until after the vote. Bill's are amendable so expect a number of amendments to be tabled. If any of them pass which change the structure of the deal then it all falls apart as it is then no longer what EU parliament have agreed to offer.

The customs union one probably has the best chance of causing chaos. Though I read that the DUP wont support it, which makes it hard to pass.

I still think the most likely thing is that his deal passes in the next few days and we leave with a short 'technical' extension taking us into November.



vermontsavant
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21 Oct 2019, 2:08 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
vermontsavant wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
You and me both
I don't think the deal will go through,there now barred from voting on it twice.For practical purposes the deal is dead.


Parliamentary process says you are not allowed to table the same vote twice within one parliamentary session. Even though the vote didn't happen it was still tabled and so they now cannot have that again in this session.

That means they have moved on to voting on the Bill instead as a way of passing it. The Bill has all the legal text in it, and all thr detail Johnson didn't want to reveal until after the vote. Bill's are amendable so expect a number of amendments to be tabled. If any of them pass which change the structure of the deal then it all falls apart as it is then no longer what EU parliament have agreed to offer.

The customs union one probably has the best chance of causing chaos. Though I read that the DUP wont support it, which makes it hard to pass.

I still think the most likely thing is that his deal passes in the next few days and we leave with a short 'technical' extension taking us into November.
I am a bit confused if they can still vote on it,whats the point of a law that says you can't table(not quite sure what that means)more than once in one session.


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Biscuitman
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21 Oct 2019, 3:51 pm

vermontsavant wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
vermontsavant wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
You and me both
I don't think the deal will go through,there now barred from voting on it twice.For practical purposes the deal is dead.


Parliamentary process says you are not allowed to table the same vote twice within one parliamentary session. Even though the vote didn't happen it was still tabled and so they now cannot have that again in this session.

That means they have moved on to voting on the Bill instead as a way of passing it. The Bill has all the legal text in it, and all thr detail Johnson didn't want to reveal until after the vote. Bill's are amendable so expect a number of amendments to be tabled. If any of them pass which change the structure of the deal then it all falls apart as it is then no longer what EU parliament have agreed to offer.

The customs union one probably has the best chance of causing chaos. Though I read that the DUP wont support it, which makes it hard to pass.

I still think the most likely thing is that his deal passes in the next few days and we leave with a short 'technical' extension taking us into November.
I am a bit confused if they can still vote on it,whats the point of a law that says you can't table(not quite sure what that means)more than once in one session.


They will not have the 'meaningful vote' on the motion now as that has gone. They will vote to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill now instead which is the full legal text.

The document was released about an hour ago. It's the text that Johnson didn't want to be seen by MP's until after they voted so there could always be some interesting unexpected things in there I suppose.



Biscuitman
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22 Oct 2019, 11:41 am

Timetable vote coming up in a couple of hours to decide if the WA Bill should be read and debated in 3 days or longer (maybe into November so we have an extension as per Johnsons letter)



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22 Oct 2019, 2:35 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
Timetable vote coming up in a couple of hours to decide if the WA Bill should be read and debated in 3 days or longer (maybe into November so we have an extension as per Johnsons letter)
From what I have read so is that Boris Johnson's timetable has been rejected.


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