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TuskenR
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06 Jul 2020, 7:50 pm

Fnord wrote:
jimmy m wrote:
In my humble opinion (IMHO) this pandemic is winding down in the U.S. Death rates are dropping dramatically. It is a seasonal virus just like the influenza virus. There may be a resurgence come the winter (a second wave) but generally the effect will be less severe.
Evidence, please?  From somewhere other than Donald J. Trump's playbook, if you will.  Thank you.


He's got a point jimmy , I can't argue with that


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08 Jul 2020, 8:33 pm

Taylord wrote:
A pandemic, unemployment through the roof, people potentially being homeless, having to wear whenever going outside like it's Metro, not being able to socialize properly, and literally thousand of people a day getting infected and dying. Is this just life for decades now? Our younger peoples career dreams and hopes, their joy of finding love and starting a family shattered?

You know how much the world has changed in the last two decades? No, that's not gonna happen. I doubt that the pandemic will another year or two without a cure being discovered now as for the effect on the economy? Well, let's just remember that the need for the jobs will still exist. The economy will need time to recover. It's not going to last Decades. I'd be surprised if the economy hasn't mostly recovered by the end of the decade. Just try not to panic and just worry about getting through day by day.


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08 Jul 2020, 8:42 pm

In France they seem to be carrying on as though the pandemic is over. Can UKers, from their favorable vantage point just on the other side of the Channel, explain how the French are able to do that?


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08 Jul 2020, 8:52 pm

I don't see this going on for decades, but definitely for the rest of 2020. A vaccine should be available early in 2021.


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08 Jul 2020, 10:07 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
A vaccine should be available early in 2021.


Not wanting to be a damp blanket



cyberdad
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13 Jul 2020, 10:29 pm

Evidence now suggest this will be our lives forever.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coron ... 7471363c5c

A new COVID-19 study shows people infected with coronavirus could lose their immunity within three months.
Blood tests of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers revealed that while 60 per cent of people were able to mount a "potent" antibody response to the virus, only 17 per cent retained that same potency three months later.

That may mean the coronavirus could strike seasonally, much like the common flu, where vaccines do not offer long-term protection.
Those who have recovered from COVID-19 may not be immune as initially thought and it's possible they could be infected with coronavirus again.
"Infection tends to give you the best-case scenario for an antibody response, so if your infection is giving you antibody levels that wane in two to three months, the vaccine will potentially do the same thing," Dr Doores said.
"People may need boosting and one shot might not be sufficient."



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14 Jul 2020, 12:32 am

cyberdad wrote:
Evidence now suggest this will be our lives forever.

A new COVID-19 study shows people infected with coronavirus could lose their immunity within three months.
Blood tests of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers revealed that while 60 per cent of people were able to mount a "potent" antibody response to the virus, only 17 per cent retained that same potency three months later.

Those who have recovered from COVID-19 may not be immune as initially thought and it's possible they could be infected with coronavirus again.


Is the Australian media still harping on with that outdated rubbish?
The antibodies they are finding are the IgM antibodies, what this means is that conversion of IgM(Short term antibodies) into IgG(long term antibodies) is poor for this virus. This has been known for a while.

And yes, it does not bode well for a vaccine as vaccines rely on antibody formation.

But the good news is that the immune system has a "fallback" called T-cell mediated immunity.
Link : https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19 ... have-shown

So what does that mean?
The vaccine will probably fail.
But the disease will eventually go away by natural means as we can and do develop lasting immunity to it.

And I suspect that Channel 9 is trying to drum up their ratings by scaring the wits out of people with sensationalist half truths.



cyberdad
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14 Jul 2020, 12:54 am

The study is from Imperial College London and its not just channel 9 picking this news up
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests



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14 Jul 2020, 1:39 am

cyberdad wrote:
The study is from Imperial College London and its not just channel 9 picking this news up
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests


I know what Imperial College says because I have read their study.

I have no problem with Imperial Colleges study, as they simply found that this Corona virus is the same as pretty much every other Corona virus in history with regards to antibody formation. It's not a controversial finding.

But what the News are claiming Imperial College said and what Imperial College are actually saying are -->TWO DIFFERENT THINGS<--

What ICL said "Antibody longevity in Sars CoV-2 is poor although longer than most other Corona viruses."

What the newspapers said "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people"

This is because the newspapers seem to believe that B cell mediated immunity is the only immunity that exists.
It is not, it is one of many overlapping immune mechanisms the body has.
And the good news from the Karolinska institute is that while B cell immunity disappeared quickly in many people, T cell mediated immunity was quite strong.

But the Newspapers forget to mention that, hence why I said "scaring people with half-truths"

Links to the ICL Abstract and Study :
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20148429v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

And Links to the Karolinska Institutes abstract and study on T Cell immunity :
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.174888v1
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf



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14 Jul 2020, 2:45 am

i really hope spicewolf is right


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14 Jul 2020, 3:58 am

SpiceWolf wrote:
What the newspapers said "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people"

This is because the newspapers seem to believe that B cell mediated immunity is the only immunity that exists.
It is not, it is one of many overlapping immune mechanisms the body has.


For all our sakes I hope you are right.



magz
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14 Jul 2020, 4:54 am

Fnord wrote:
jimmy m wrote:
In my humble opinion (IMHO) this pandemic is winding down in the U.S. Death rates are dropping dramatically. It is a seasonal virus just like the influenza virus. There may be a resurgence come the winter (a second wave) but generally the effect will be less severe.
Evidence, please?  From somewhere other than Donald J. Trump's playbook, if you will.  Thank you.

Numbers from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show rising cases and dropping mortality worldwide, regardless of climate. Seasonal variation may occur but not sufficient to make it "seasonal disease" like flu.

My personal opinion is, if nothing is done, this virus will ultimately join the club of common cold viruses, with people exposed to it since childhood having partial immunity and mild symptoms but never full immunity for long enough.

Economies can be rebuilt, I personally witnessed it since my childhood and I know it can be done again and again. Resilience and adaptability are the keys.


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14 Jul 2020, 5:19 am

SpiceWolf wrote:
cyberdad wrote:
The study is from Imperial College London and its not just channel 9 picking this news up
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... y-suggests


I know what Imperial College says because I have read their study.

I have no problem with Imperial Colleges study, as they simply found that this Corona virus is the same as pretty much every other Corona virus in history with regards to antibody formation. It's not a controversial finding.

But what the News are claiming Imperial College said and what Imperial College are actually saying are -->TWO DIFFERENT THINGS<--

What ICL said "Antibody longevity in Sars CoV-2 is poor although longer than most other Corona viruses."

What the newspapers said "People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people"

This is because the newspapers seem to believe that B cell mediated immunity is the only immunity that exists.
It is not, it is one of many overlapping immune mechanisms the body has.
And the good news from the Karolinska institute is that while B cell immunity disappeared quickly in many people, T cell mediated immunity was quite strong.

But the Newspapers forget to mention that, hence why I said "scaring people with half-truths"

Links to the ICL Abstract and Study :
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20148429v1
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

And Links to the Karolinska Institutes abstract and study on T Cell immunity :
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 9.174888v1
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf


But, these papers have not been peer reviewed. While interesting, they still need to be considered preliminary.

That said, news reports often make mistakes by virtue of not understanding the science, which is complex.


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14 Jul 2020, 6:10 am

blazingstar wrote:
But, these papers have not been peer reviewed. While interesting, they still need to be considered preliminary.

That said, news reports often make mistakes by virtue of not understanding the science, which is complex.

Like everything else, the truth is complicated but "everyday folks" demand simple answers.


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14 Jul 2020, 7:11 am

MaxE wrote:
blazingstar wrote:
But, these papers have not been peer reviewed. While interesting, they still need to be considered preliminary.

That said, news reports often make mistakes by virtue of not understanding the science, which is complex.

Like everything else, the truth is complicated but "everyday folks" demand simple answers.


Science is complicated and the more we learn the more complicated it gets. When I was in graduate school, our understanding of the immune system was rudimentary. I am not saying the unreviewed reports are wrong, just that they have not been validated nor expanded upon.

We have a lot more to learn about CV19 before it is as "simple" as the common flu.

We yearn for answers and reassurance, but there is none. Not IRL.


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magz
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14 Jul 2020, 7:21 am

blazingstar wrote:
We yearn for answers and reassurance, but there is none. Not IRL.

There are a lot of answers and even more to find, but all of them are only partial and uncertain. Uncertainity estimation is a great part of science, time to make the public aware of its principles.


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