Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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This strain of Bird Flu is being followed. It has appeared in China, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan. It is now appearing in the U.S.

Bird flu doesn’t “transmit easily from person-to-person,” according to the World Health Organization. Bird flu rarely affects humans, and most previous cases came from close contact with infected poultry, according to the CDC. Because human-to-human spread of bird flu poses “pandemic potential,” each human case is investigated to rule out this type of infection. Though none have been confirmed, there are a few global cases—none in the U.S.—where human-to-human transmission of bird flu was thought to be “probable,” including in China, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan.

It is very deadly. Between January 2003 and March 28, 2024 there have been 888 human cases of bird flu infection in humans, according to a report by the World Health Organization. Of those 888 cases, 463 (52%) died. To date, only two people in the U.S. have contracted H5N1 bird flu, and they both were infected after coming into contact with sick animals. The most recent case was a dairy worker in Texas who became ill in March after interacting with sick dairy cows, though he only experienced pink eye. The first incident happened in 2022 when a person in Colorado contracted the disease from infected poultry, and fully recovered.

A second case of this bird flu in humans has now occurred. The first was in Texas. The latest one occurred in Michigan.
Bird Flu (H5N1) Explained: Study Suggests Drinking Infected Milk Could Spread Disease
This link is tracking the latest information.

23 May 2024:
A new study with mice suggests that drinking infected milk can spread the disease—and that a certain type of pasteurization may not always be effective in killing the virus.

22 May 2024:
Michigan reported bird flu in a farm worker on Wednesday—the second U.S. human case tied to transmission from dairy cows—though the worker had a mild infection and has since recovered.

21 May 2024:
Australia reported its first human case of bird flu Tuesday after a child became infected in March after traveling to India, though the child has since recovered after suffering from a “severe infection,” according to the Victorian Department of Health.

16 May 2024:
The USDA conducted a study, and discovered that after high levels of the virus was injected into beef, no trace was left after the meat was cooked medium to well done, though the virus was found in meat cooked to lower temperatures.

14 May 2024:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released influenza A waste water data for the weeks ending in April 27 and May 4, and found several states like Alaska, California, Florida, Illinois and Kansas had unusually high levels, though the agency isn’t sure if the virus came from humans or animals, and isn’t able to differentiate between influenza A subtypes, meaning the H5N1 virus or other subtypes may have been detected.

I'd risk potential exposure to flu over certain exposure to overdone beef.

I think I might drop filet mignon off my list for awhile.

I came across another article about H5N1 online but it was encypted so I unencypted the message and this is what information it contained. This was an article from The Telegraph.

Testing of the latest human case of bird flu has revealed a “notable” mutation in the virus, officials have said.

The case, which was identified this month in a dairy worker in Michigan, marks the second human infection linked to the multi-state H5N1 outbreak among US cattle.

Genomic sequencing has now found a change in the virus compared to an earlier infection in a dairy worker in Texas, raising concerns that the virus is evolving to better infect humans.

The slight change in the virus’s genetic makeup is “associated with viral adaptation to mammalian hosts,” the Centre for Disease Control said in a statement published on Friday.

This change has also been identified as resulting in enhancement of virus replication and disease severity in mice during studies with avian influenza viruses, the agency added.

“This is exactly why I’ve been trying to call attention to deep sequencing of each virus from cows, cats, and people infected with H5N1, which is needed for a rapid and effective global response on vaccine and antiviral development,” said Dr Rick Bright, an immunologist and influenza expert, on X (formerly Twitter).

Despite the virus’s evolution, the CDC stressed the strain is still closely related to the clade of H5N1 circulating in US dairy cattle, and closely matches the two candidate vaccines currently available to manufacturers, should they be needed.

Experts think it likely that we will begin to see more human cases of H5N1 in dairy workers in the coming weeks and months, as surveillance efforts ramp-up across America.

There are currently at least 350 people under surveillance who have been exposed to bird flu-infected cattle, which have now been identified in at least 68 herds across nine states.

Last week, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced a new set of measures to encourage farmers to increase their monitoring efforts, so that health authorities can better understand how the virus is spreading.

The agency will provide up to $1,500 to any farm that implements a biosecurity plan, including “enhanced” measures for people travelling between dairy farms like vets, milk haulers, and technicians – although it is unclear exactly what those measures are.

USDA has also said it will cover the cost of H5N1 testing in cattle by up to $2,000, including additional expenses for shipping fees of samples to laboratories.

Meanwhile, meat from a dairy cow sent to slaughter was found to contain particles of the H5N1 avian influenza virus last week – sparking concern over the risk of transmission via the food supply.

USDA have stressed that the US meat supply is safe, but have encouraged meat-eaters to cook beef to an internal temperature of at least 160 degrees Fahrenheit – which is classified as ‘well done’.

The WHO still considers the risk to humans low but urged countries to rapidly share information to enable real-time monitoring of the situation to ensure preparedness as the virus continues to spread.

Although the focus of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is centered on cattle, this threat is much larger in scope than just dairy cattle.

It affects many types of animals all over the planet. And now this contagion is global in scope.

China, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan are at the forefront of this new pandemic.

It is very deadly. Between January 2003 and March 28, 2024 there have been 888 human cases of bird flu infection in humans, according to a report by the World Health Organization. Of those 888 cases, 463 (52%) died.

Somehow I think the world is missing the threat posed by H5N1.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is focused on transmission by eating infected dairy cattle. But the scope of this threat is much larger. In other words:

Dairy cattle are not becoming infected by eating other dairy cattle.

So how is this infection spread between animals and between humans? My first thought is it is spread by transmitting infected blood. How is this done? The first thing that comes to mind is Mosquitoes.

What’s the most dangerous creature on earth? Without question the answer is: the mosquito. Mosquitoes and the diseases they spread have been responsible for killing more people than all the wars in history. Even today, mosquitoes transmitting malaria kill 2 million to 3 million people and infect another 200 million or more every year. Tens of millions more are killed and debilitated by a host of other mosquito-borne diseases, including filariasis, yellow fever, dengue and encephalitis.

But for millions of Americans, malaria is something other people get somewhere else. The fact is that nearly half of the world’s population is at risk for malaria. Residents of the United States are not immune. Malaria has occurred in the United States, and still does on rare occasions. Mosquitoes capable of carrying and transmitting malaria still inhabit most parts of this country. And an influx of malaria-infected persons has produced localized malaria transmission in some areas of the United States.

Today, however, the threat of developing encephalitis from mosquitoes is far greater than the threat of malaria in the United States. Encephalitis, meningitis and other diseases can develop from the bites of mosquitoes infected with certain viruses. These include the viruses of West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis, LaCrosse (California) encephalitis, and Eastern equine and Western equine encephalitis.

So when I look into the transmission route of a very deadly H5N1 strain in cattle, my first thought is Mosquitoes.

Mosquitoes and Disease The article then goes on to say:

One strategy to prevent mosquito bites is avoidance. But even if one were to remain indoors throughout the mosquito season, they might still encounter mosquitoes. Mosquitoes, such as the house mosquito, are adept at getting into structures to feed on the inhabitants, and also to use crawlspaces, basements and cellars as quiet spots in which to shelter themselves for the winter. It is important to keep structures in good repair, maintaining the integrity of window and door screens and weather stripping, and screening or sealing all gaps through which mosquitoes might enter, such as spaces around utility lines, vents, foundation cracks, and gaps around windows and doors.

Repellents are the first line of defense against mosquito bites. Many products provide some degree of protection against mosquito bites. However, certain active ingredients provide better protection. For many years, DEET (N,N-diethyl-meta-toluamide) has been the standard by which products are measured. When applied according to label direction, products containing 20 percent to 30 percent DEET provide protection against mosquitoes that lasts several hours. Products containing much higher percentages of DEET are available, but generally do not provide significantly longer protection.

Recently, products containing another active ingredient, picaridin, have been shown to provide a similar degree of protection, and without the familiar odor and stickiness of DEET products. A third ingredient, lemon oil of eucalyptus, is a plant-derived compound that also is capable of providing protection, though not as long-lasting as that provided by products containing DEET or picaridin.

Since the beginning of the year, the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu strain that previously had killed tens of millions of birds and a few species of mammals has been reported in goats and at least 68 herds of dairy cows in nine states.

But the outbreak is more problematic than that: On May 24, the US Department of Agriculture announced that bird flu was detected in the meat of an infected dairy cow. Officials said that "viral particles of H5N1 were detected during testing of various tissues, including samples from the diaphragm muscle, which sits below the lungs.” They warned against a panic, however, saying the virus would be killed if meat from cattle was cooked.

USDA had previously announced the detection of fragments of (non-infectious) bird flu virus genomic RNA in more than 20 percent of retail milk samples tested in a nationally representative study. The virus was inactive, however, presumably due to pasteurization. That is important, because it is estimated that about 1.5% of U.S. adults often consume unpasteurized milk or other raw milk products, which are still on sale across the country.

Research has thus far indicated that the pathogenic strain is inactive in raw milk, but two reports released late last week raise doubts. A New England Journal of Medicine study found that raw milk could rapidly sicken mice, and H5N1 in refrigerated raw milk can remain infectious for several weeks. Moreover, at least a half dozen cats have died after consuming infected raw milk, according to the CDC.

Recently released viral sequences from animal infections provided by USDA indicate that the outbreak likely began in December 2023, with a single spillover incident from birds into cows.

Most worrisome of all is the unexpected jump of the avian flu virus to humans. The first known case was a man working on a Texas dairy farm, considered ground zero; the second, another farm worker in Michigan; and the third, a Michigan dairy farm worker at a farm different from the second case. The last of those was the only one to exhibit pulmonary symptoms. But stay tuned; there are undoubtedly more to come.

Source: We Risk a Pandemic if We Don't Do More to Monitor Spread of H5N1 Avian Flu

One of the groups in the U.S. that will be on the front lines of this new pandemic are the Amish and Mennonite Communities. In many ways they live in lives that existed 200 years ago. They do not pasteurize their milk. They are very vulnerable to this threat.

On 5 June 2024, it was reported:

A new study examining the 2023 bird flu outbreak in South America that killed around 17,400 elephant seal pups and 24,000 sea lions found the disease spread between the animals in several countries, the first known case of transnational virus mammal-to-mammal bird flu transmission.

Then on 6 July 2024, it was reported:

Dozens of cows infected with bird flu have either died or been slaughtered in Colorado, Ohio, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas, which is unusual since—unlike poultry—cows cost more to slaughter and around 90% usually make a full recovery.

Source: Bird Flu (H5N1) Explained: Bird Flu Has Killed Dozens Of Dairy Cows In Multiple States

In the United States they have been tracking this H5N1 outbreak in animals since 2022. Thus far it has affected the following species:

Aburt's squirrel, American black bear, American marten, American mink, Amur leopard, Amur tiger, Bobcats, Bottlenose dolphin, Coyote, Domestic cat, Fisher, Gray seal, Grizzly bear, Harbor seal, House mouse, Kodiak bear, Mountain lion, North American river otter, Polar bear, Red fox, Raccoon, Striped skunk, Virginia opossum,

The first case of H5N1 in domestic cats appeared on 03/25/2024
The first case of H5N1 in house mouse appeared on 05/24/2024

Thus far there has been 259 reported cases of H5N1 in animals in the U.S.

Source: Detections of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Mammals

This list does not include the outbreak in dairy cattle nor humans.

It appears that the threat has been investigated and a pier 1 solution may be in the works.

According to one article:

H5 candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) produced by CDC are expected to provide good protection against current clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI A(H5N1) viruses detected in birds and mammals, including dairy cattle. These H5 CVVs are available and have been shared with vaccine manufacturers.

Source: Technical Report: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Viruses

But as we learned from COVID, a virus is constantly on the move. By the time they create, test, manufacture a cure, the virus will be somewhere else. I still feel the transmission of this potential pandemic should focus on stopping the flow of contaminated blood from mosquito bites.

Milk from cows infected with bird flu contains astronomical numbers of viral particles, which can survive for hours in splattered milk, new data show. The research adds to growing evidence that the act of milking has probably been driving viral transmission among cows, other animals and potentially humans.

Since it was first isolated in 1996, the highly pathogenic bird-flu virus H5N1 has caused outbreaks in domestic and wild birds around the world, and it has occasionally infected mammals such as seals and foxes. On 25 March, US health officials announced that H5N1 had been detected in dairy cows for the first time. As of 5 June, infections have been confirmed in more than 80 dairy herds in nine states and in three dairy farm workers, all of whom had mild symptoms.

Scientists had not previously suspected that cattle could easily become infected with bird flu, because the animals were thought to lack the receptor that allows the virus to enter their cells. But reports of sick cattle with inflamed udders raised suspicions that the virus can infect the animals’ mammary glands.

Diel [Diego Diel, a virologist at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York] and his colleagues examined the milk of cows with H5N1 and found astonishing amounts of virus: some samples contained hundreds of millions of infectious particles, a level “that is higher than we can grow in the lab” for experiments, says Seema Lakdawala, an influenza virologist at Emory University School of Medicine in Atlanta, Georgia. “In ideal conditions, we don’t get that — this is crazy high.”

This abundance could help to explain why H5N1 viral fragments have been found in one in five retail milk samples6: a small number of infected cows could taint the milk supply with many particles. (Pasteurization inactivates H5N1 in milk, according to a preprint posted last week.)

The findings suggest that minimizing exposure to raw milk could be an important way to prevent transmission.

I firmly agree with this approach. In the U.S. most people consume pasteurized milk. But unpasteurized is sold and consumed in some groups such as Amish and Mennonite populations. These groups will be vulnerable. Also some cheeses are unpasteurized. When unpasteurized cheese is created, the milk is heated, but only to about 30° C (86° F).

Here is a link to some of these unpasteurized cheeses:
Unpasteurized Cheeses

How is H5N1 killing humans? What are the symptoms?

So I began to look at the articles on the internet.

There has been a mortality (or death) rate of about 50% in the almost 900 people around the world who have been infected with bird flu between 2003 and 2024.

Source: H5N1 Bird Flu: What You Need to Know

H5N1 bird flu was first identified in geese in China in 1996 and in people in Hong Kong the following year. Almost 25 years later, in 2020, a new variant of H5N1, referred to as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), was detected in wild birds in Europe; it was first seen in birds in the U.S. and Canada in late 2021, and has since been detected in a variety of wild bird species in all 50 states.

In February 2022, the virus began causing sporadic outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 in backyard and commercial poultry flocks in the U.S., causing serious illness and death in infected chickens. The number of outbreaks has increased and spread over time—as of May 2024, the CDC reported poultry outbreaks in 48 states.

In addition, there have been sporadic infections in mammals (including bears, bobcats, minks, mountain lions, raccoons, skunks, and others), according to the CDC. And now, as of early May, there have been outbreaks in dairy cattle in nine states.

What are the symptoms of bird flu?

They range from no symptoms to mild flu-like illness to severe illness that requires hospitalization. The dairy worker infected in the U.S. in April reported mild illness, with the main symptom being conjunctivitis (irritation or inflammation of the conjunctiva, a clear mucous membrane that protects the eye). Other common symptoms are consistent with influenza, according to the CDC:

-- Cough
-- Fatigue
-- Fever
-- Headaches
-- Muscle or body aches
-- Runny nose
-- Shortness of breath

O.K. these are the mild symptoms. But people are dying. How did they die?

In other words how are people dying in China, Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan of H5N1?

God, I hope not. People handled the last pandemic so horribly, just really showed to me how selfish people really are. I fear this could only end up being the same, or worse. Of course, the method of spreading is different, so far.

I'm in an at-risk group. So i have to be very careful with this kind of thing, and this one is particularly deadly.

I came across an article about to begin production of a vaccine for a human variant of Bird Flu. Interesting. But I remember from COVID, the virus is always on the move. So getting vaccinated for one variant of Bird Flu may not provide complete protection from other variants.

Finland To Offer Bird Flu Vaccines To At-Risk Groups In Possible World-First Move

Finland may be about to become the first country in the world to start dishing out preventative bird flu vaccines to some citizens. It’s being reported that the first shipments of vaccine secured by the European Union (EU) will be heading there, so that those most at risk of exposure to the virus can be offered some protection.

Reuters reports that the EU is due to sign a contract with vaccine manufacturer CSL Seqirus to secure 665,000 doses of a preventative avian influenza vaccine on behalf of 15 nations within the EU and European Economic Area (EEA). Similar efforts are underway in the US, Canada, and UK, but with the EU’s deal slated for completion on June 11, 2024, it’s looking likely the first nation to begin its vaccination efforts will be Finland.

The Zoonotic Influenza Vaccine Seqirus, which was authorized for use by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in October 2023, was developed against a strain of bird flu in the H5N8 classification.

This is slightly different from the bird flu that’s recently been hitting the headlines with outbreaks on dairy farms in several US states – that’s an H5N1 virus. However, since the vaccine’s main target is the hemagglutinin surface protein on the virus – the “H” part, which is common to both H5N8 and H5N1 – it’s hoped that it will still offer some protection against H5N1.

Finland saw a number of outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 in 2023, in wild birds and among mammals on a number of the country’s over 500 fur farms, which resulted in large-scale culling.

Animals that are farmed for fur, like mink, are known to be susceptible to avian flu, but outbreaks on fur farms, as well as the ongoing situation with dairy cows in the US, are particularly concerning to epidemiologists as they raise the specter of sustained transmission between mammals, which itself increases the chance of a virus making the jump to humans.

Finnish authorities are planning to start delivering doses to poultry farmers, fur farm workers, vets, and scientists studying the virus “as soon as the vaccines are in the country.”

You are right. COVID was not handled effectively. Many of the prevention guidelines given were completely wrong. They did not rely on the science.

I believe this threat is very different then COVID. It will strike children, young adults, people who work, play, exercise outdoors during the summer months of Northern U.S. states. It is already on the move.