is world war three on the way?

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It's possible for charismatic tyrants to take advantage of bad situations to gain power. This happens quite often throughout history. In fact, if you look at the dictators and tyrants of today, pretty much all of them came to power through similar means. As such though... it makes it rather hard to predict who will be next Hitler until they actually are.

Instead of finding a next Hitler, i would pay more attention to cultural, ideological and resource issues between nations. Flashpoints situations so to speak; a potential single event that can set off a larger conflict. The start of WWI was full of flashpoints set up to where every nation could get drawn in as long as one pair duked it out. WWII's big flashpoint was the Treaty of Versailles which allowed someone like Hitler to gain power by appealing to people hurt by the treaty.

I would say in today's world the thing to watch for is any escalation between Israel and Iran. Both are keen on hitting the other and looking for a solid reason to do so and this would be kind of conflict that could draw in other more powerful countries(namely the US and Russia).

Don't bother with these Obama conspiracy theories because that's all they are. People had the same damn theories about Bush and it was all hooey. Pay attention to the real world and history.

Well, anyway,

Generally, sooner.

I think we could have another war coming to the Middle East. Hopefully it'll just fizzle out like the Isreali/Lebanon conflict, but if enough nations start taking sides we could see a major war in the Middle East.

The likelihood of such a war expanding far beyond the Middle East however, is extremely unlikely. The probability of another World War breaking out in the near future is essentially zero. Even if resource wars break out over worldwide shortages, these will still be local conflicts.

All governments have fallen, all paper money becomes worthless.

The turnover is fast compared to history, and total.

Government feeds on the productive ability of land, people, and their savings through fear.

When they run the game till the money is worthless, the land and labor is still there, and something new starts.

It is best when it does end. There are disruptions, but a clean start is worth it.

In less than 100 years American money went from being backed by gold, $20 an Oz. to $35 Oz, to Silver, to nothing. From nothing gold went from $35 to $350.

When Bush took office $350 gold, $13 oil. Now gold over $900 and oil $39.

So a Bush dollar became an Obama $0.33.

The market crash is just adjusting to the new level.

Obama will leave a dollar equal to a Peso.

In this system, making money, having savings, owning stock, is pillaged by government and their friends.

They stole so fast they need a bailout for there is a pillage shortage.

The sooner it ends the better for the people, who still have their land and labor.

All debts can be paid in dollars worth less than Yen.

Ancient Rome was as confident of the immutability of its world and the continual expansion and improvement of the human lot as we are today.

And ancient Rome didn't last forever....

You're grossly oversimplifying the inflation situation. As of 2007, the inflation was calculated as more like $1 (2000) was $.83, and that was before the collapse of the commodity bubble.

Likewise, the idea that the dollar will equal the peso is suspect because Mexico has a markedly higher inflation rate than the USA.

One of the threats actually currently that is being looked at seriously is that we may enter a period of deflation, and this has already begun to some extent as lagging demand and leftover stock has collapsed the price of a number of things. This is generally considered a bad thing (although of course as long as my wages are stable I'm not complaining).


Funny you should bring up the Yen. The deflationary/stagnant value of the yen has certainly been no friend to the export driven Japanese economy over the past lyk wut, 15 years or so.

Japan attacked America for 2 reasons; Hitler and Mussolini agreed to declare war on America if the Japanese would attack...and
We embargoed all of Japan's raw materials (oil and steel), so they had to get us 'out of the way' to seize, Indochina (ironically, we embargoed Japan over their siezure of Vietnam, among other things...

Japan seized Korea in about 1905, invaded China in...well, accounts differ, but '31 really got things moving.

I do not want a Depression. As the old saying goes (Harry Truman), it's a recession if your neighbor loses his job, it's a Depression if you lose yours.

The term 'Depression' is kind of elastic; in the 19th Century, they were called 'panics', the Depression was pretty much the only real 'depression', and since then, they've been 'recessions'. They all pretty much describe the same symptoms.

There are a lot more institutions to check movements like Hitler in the 30s (actually, it was Wiemar (sp?) Germany who really killed things with hyperinflation [WWI debts were crushing Germany, so the just 'fixed' the problem by printing enough money to pay off the victorious Allies, thereby making the actual worth of the mark about the same as Zimbabwe's], so I really hope that's not a return. There's just no one who can pull that stunt and expect it to work again )

Official Inflation is to set automatic cost of living increases. If a dollar was $0.83 of a 2000 dollar, gold would be $400 an Oz.

Deflation is excess goods being produced which drives down prices, but does not affect the value of money.

Japan was where we are in 1990, real estate was way over valued, the banks had financed a bubble, and when it popped they chose to bail out the rich, the banks, keep up the price of real estate, and place the burden on the tax payer. To make the bank numbers work took a freeze in real estate values, and the yen. They Nationalized the economy and have been Zombies ever since, the living dead.

Private business, banks, loaned for building houses, and produced the mortgages that said even with over production these houses will continue to be worth more for the next thirty years.

Over production caused deflation, that came on top of over valuing to sell larger mortgages.

New business stopped, the default rate went up, and the price is still falling.

Trying to prop up the outstanding mortgages they are killing the market.

Win and lose are expected in business, but they went beyond reason.

They sold bonds based on future income, and they have to make the payments or go out of business.

These are the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations.

As a standard business practice they insured the bonds.

Then they sold the insurance to a third party. Credit Default Swaps.

This was something new, a short on the housing market. A bet on the default rate.

When the default rate went up it took out the insurers, AIG.

One market lost more than their Capital from all lines.

They were taken over, the good parts are being sold, there will not be much left for an ever increasing debt.

Other banks who had bought the Credit Default Swaps found them worthless, and the write off exceeded their capital, so they got a loan.

They are like the consumer, in debt for more than their net worth.

The price of housing continues to decline, but banks still have to pay on the bonds.

Banks do not have money to loan, or a market that wants loans.

Every dollar goes to paying their debts.

They have to hold up current top of the bubble prices, for if the Asset in Asset Backed Securities becomes worth less, which was set by dollar value, the bond holders have the right to demand their Capital back.

They did what they sold, took a Mortgage on future earnings, it did not work out, Banks are being foreclosed.

More banks were closed by the FDIC last month, some three times all of 2007. It may hit 175 this year, as their income can not manage their debt.

This lead to a slowdown in consumer spending, they could not get credit, which has spred through manufacturing and retailing.

Banks caused the problem, they should be sold off.

The Bond Holders bought the Mortgages, and left them under management.

Working with Fanny and Freddie, who hold half the mortgages, the FDIC who closes banks,

Mortgage value and interest can be reset, 60% of current value, 3% interest,

There would be no housing crisus, consumers would have money to spend, factories and retail would be hiring, and the sound banks will make good loans.

Bank Capital is gone, their Common stock is worthless, they hold nothing but bad debt that needs to be taken out of the system, and the bond holders need to recover as much as they can.

A mortgage is a promise of future income, so nothing is lost marking it down.

The danger is in default, foreclosure, resale, which costs money, time, and leads to loss.

There would be none of that at 60% and 3%, so bond holders have less costs, and a sure income.

It would start a worldwide growth phase, and it would be a no cost to the tax payer.

Out of 8,500 banks at least 6,000 will survive, and be stronger for it.

While we are at it, A West Coast State, a Mountain State, a Southwest State, South Central State, Southeast State, Northeast State, Ohio Valley State, and the Grainland State.

A Senate of 16, and a House of 3,000.

The whole thread is based on ludicrous and unlikely parallels. About the only thing that is the same is the dodgy economics of the two periods. Obama isn't trying to lead a country that has been liberally beaten into submission both militarily and economically. Nor is he trying to annex "the sudetenland" for more "lebensraum" for his people, who he believes are better than everyone, including a minority that he believes are evil. Hes not doing anything that Hitler did at all, apart from being quite charismatic.

And added note: Hitler did not start WW2.. he invaded some places. It only became ww2 when everybody decided to combine to fight back. I imagine his intent was to annex as much of Europe as he could, without ending up in a war with everyone.

Yeah....I don't know what people in this thread have against Obama.......

i don't know much about him apart from what others have said, some say he's just a puppet and cheated his way to the position he's in now by using choice words that could hold multiple meanings, others say he's the best thing that's happened to america and that he's also going to try and pull american troops out of the current warzone.

That video ACTUALLY made me ROFL. I can't tell whether it is parody or something that Fox News or similar minded people put together in a genuine attempt to influence the low-IQ audience that they target. Either way it's damn funny. Obviously you could do this with any politician running any sort of political campaign in any country at any time.


While we are posting funny stuff, I find this quite funny

Obama = Hitler?

You know better than that! You were educated at the Eton of the East, for crying out loud.

Is world war III on the way? Or is it WW 4 (count the global cold war as WWIII)?

Either way I see the ME conflicts quickly escalating in the next few years, because nothing is better for corporate profits than massive wars.

That's preposterous. You can't calculate inflation based on a single commodity because commodities can undergo price swings unrelated to the value of the currency or other commodities. By that logic, since oil was $147 per barrel in July, and now it's more like $45, we must conclude that the dollar is three times as valuable now as it was in July? Of course not.

The baseline for the consumer price index starts in 1902, with a barrel of flour costing $2, which was 1/10 Oz of gold.

By that measure $1 then is $45 now.

While commodies can trade in a range, under or over valued due to production and demand, or in the case of oil, speculation, it was only recently sold as a future, that range is bracketed by dollars and gold. oil was $13 a barrel, now $40, gold was $350 an Oz. now $900, so the dollar is worth about 1/3 of what it was when Bush took office.

The barrel of oil is the same, the Oz. of gold, the only change is the dollar.

Housing is a commody, like oil, it went up through speculation, then down through over production.

Mortgages are long term futures contracts, and the banks were left holding oil at $147.

While oil reverted to free market value, banks want thier commody to be fixed at the highest price.

While oil traders took their losses and moved on, banks want the dollar to inflate, so housing is worth the numbers on the contracts they sold, Collaterized Mortgage Obligations.

Builders who built houses on speculation are taking their losses, and moving on.

Buyers who speculated in real estate are taking their losses and moving on.

Banks, a private business, froze the flow of money, and extorted the government into a bailout.

The act is the same as the oil companies cutting off all oil and demanding the government pay them their losses, and accept $147 as the long term price of oil.

The banks who speculated in real estate lost, then caused a credit freeze that has caved in the economy, leading to declines in everyone's wealth, unemployment, because they do not want to take their losses.

The only way bank numbers can work is to destroy the dollar. They need a sudden 50% drop, a doubling of the money supply.

If the oil companies had done this they would be nationalized, and on trial.

Not accepting that they gambled and lost, the banks have caused a loss to the world economy that far exceeds what they lost, and it continues to grow every day, when the market falls, more layoffs are announced, homes are foreclosed, and businesses go under.

Now it is the tax base, leaving Cities, Counties, States, bankrupt. The National government has over spent, Fed funds are at 0%, they have no money to bail out the States, they are out of ammo.

All of this is because banks hold a $500,000 mortgage on a home that can be bought for $200,000 cash.

They are doubling credit card interest to prop up their books, look how much we are owed.

The President has said banks must write off their losses, The head of FDIC has said banks must write off their losses, but they refuse, and credit is still frozen.

So much has been lost that the dollar is going up in buying power. The rate of decline in housing is speeding up. Banks are in worse position than ever, and more mortgages and credit cards slide into default.

The only answer is a writedown of bank assets, and that means they are bankrupt.

3/4 of banks are sound and well managed, 1/4 need to be closed next Friday.