Fauci forecast: 100,000 - 200,000 American deaths.

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EzraS
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06 Apr 2020, 7:01 pm

No in reality my opinion like most everyone else's here, is based on all the available information on COVID19. I know as much about it as most anyone here based on available info, so I am therefore just as qualified to give opinions regarding it as most anyone else here. Or put another way if my opinions regarding COVID19 are worth nothing, then the opinions of most everyone on the forum, including your own, are worth nothing.



Fnord
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06 Apr 2020, 7:30 pm

Brehus wrote:
Fnord wrote:
Brehus wrote:
Fnord wrote:
As of 4/6/2020, 08:44:19 AM PDT

347,003 Confirmed Cases in the USA.
X10,335 Confirmed Deaths.
X18,953 Confirmed Recoveries.

Taken together, that's 35.3% Mortality vs. 64.7% Recovery.
yeah but that is worse case scenario numbers with the 2.98% being the more optimistic case...
No, that's the reality case. I derived those numbers from statistics provided by Johns Hopkins University as of the time and date given.
We need to also take into account the number that are mild vs that are critical the critical one are more likely to die
Speculative predictions based on esoteric data are not my purview; but if you think you have what it takes to make reasonably accurate predictions, then go right ahead and do it.


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goldfish21
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09 Apr 2020, 1:37 am

Sad af, but this is surely going to be a factor in the American death toll as the days and weeks march on:

Image


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kraftiekortie
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09 Apr 2020, 7:52 am

I believe the healthcare system should be fixed in the US. I don’t believe in it as it is presently constituted.

The models have lowered the potential amount of deaths in the US. They are now saying we will have 60,000 deaths by August. Way too many deaths, obviously.....but less than the 100,000-200,000 predicted two weeks ago.



EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 8:13 am

Some seem to think I am against saving millions of lives. But really I am saying I do not think it is going to be millions of lives. I think it's going to be more like the number of lives during past flu seasons. Which are too many lives. But nature is a b***h along those lines. Always has been and always will be. That is part of life unfortunately.



kraftiekortie
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09 Apr 2020, 8:16 am

The doctor pictured above is in the “trenches.” He is seeing death on a daily basis. He is liable to have strong opinions. I would probably have those opinions if I saw death up close and personal.

But the US is not a “failed state.” It needs some fixing—but the US has been a success since 1776.



Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 8:25 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
But the US is not a “failed state.” It needs some fixing—but the US has been a success since 1776.


Yes, it’s a bit like folks over here proclaiming that the country is “broke” (as in bankrupt). :lmao:
We’ve certainly got problems and issues, widespread and systemic: but national bankruptcy ain’t one of ‘em. :roll:
Maybe some holidays in Somalia & Venezuela would be in order? :P



EzraS
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09 Apr 2020, 8:29 am

The US fails when it comes to the financial aspect of getting healthcare.



TheRobotLives
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09 Apr 2020, 8:36 am

It's an important question.

In the US, if you get hurt, and someone calls an ambulance, they likely sent YOU a huge bill.

goldfish21 wrote:
Sad af, but this is surely going to be a factor in the American death toll as the days and weeks march on:

Image


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Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 8:38 am

EzraS wrote:
The US fails when it comes to the financial aspect of getting healthcare.


From the outside it looks like a great and sorrowful tragedy. :heart:



kraftiekortie
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09 Apr 2020, 8:42 am

Most people in the US have some sort of health insurance. Including almost all children, many people under 26 years of age, and all people 65 years old and older.

But it’s still certainly a tragedy for tens of millions of people. Even some who do have insurance and have to pay 20% out of pocket at a minimum.



Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 8:54 am

^ Well, it’s one of two subjects where our respective cultures are profoundly different.
(The other would be firearms)
I’m trying my best to stick to a resolution to say nothing on those subjects which isn’t coming from a place of compassion, and then as rarely as possible.



kraftiekortie
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09 Apr 2020, 9:01 am

I don’t like guns myself.

Politically, I lean strongly towards a European style “social democracy.”

I am also into a NHS-type scheme in theory,



Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 10:09 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
I don’t like guns myself.

Politically, I lean strongly towards a European style “social democracy.”

I am also into a NHS-type scheme in theory,


Yes, I’m aware of the ways in which being born in Western Europe with our “mixed economies” is a privilege...

I’ve only ever seen guns a few times in my life: airports and major railway stations in the hands of the armed police units, and farmers out hunting vermin/edible wildlife.
We do have a lot of serious crime involving knives, but one person being shot in a little village is national front-page news.
Result is I don’t have an opinion on guns: I have the luxury of not needing one. (Tougher restrictions on knife sales however...)

I’m fully on board with our national religion (the NHS): my life has been saved twice through its operations, and I’ve had both therapy and minor treatments through it. Did have some private dentistry done once, but it was so expensive (and poor quality) that it put me off the whole concept of private healthcare!
The NHS does tend to be permanently undergoing reform: improving any aspect of it is a big theoretical career boost for any politician, so they all have a go (with mixed results).
This can result in strikes and other industrial action on a national level (so, no CAT scans in a particular week because the health secretary has annoyed the relevant union, that sort of thing: luckily most HS’s back down & compromise before it comes to that)
But it is genuinely and truly “ours” there without charge as a legal right: even among conservatives here hostility to the NHS is considered a bit weird and extreme.
(Grassroots conservatives that is, can’t vouch for the private school lot)

Thought I’d be replying earlier, but dinner preparation time came to pass :wink:



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09 Apr 2020, 10:15 am

What I don't get with the US healthcare system is that for a long time my aunt got free healthcare from her employer. All she had to do was meet a $300 deductible. So if she needed to have her gall bladder taken out, she didn't have to worry about it. These days since her company joined a union she pays a really low monthly insurance premium and has no deductible. And I think there's a $40 copay. So once again, if she needs surgery she doesn't have to worry about it.

So I have to wonder why the US government can't or won't do the same sort of thing.



Karamazov
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09 Apr 2020, 10:36 am

^ I think it might be too big an institutional change to get through your governmental system to implementation without bipartisan approval.

We got ours in part due to a massive commons majority for the party that wanted it, bearing in mind that in our system that’s all that’s needed to be functionally a dictator on a temp contract.