Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

Post Reply New Topic

H5N1 can spread very quickly. It is happening in dairy cattle farms in California.

“What I’ve heard from dairy facilities is this can double every single day the number of cases, because it’s very contagious and spreads very quickly once it gets on a facility,” (Fresno County Farm Bureau CEO Ryan) Jacobsen said.

Source: Central Valley dairy farmers concerned with avian flu spread

Another five suspected cases of bird flu were reported today in California, where six cases have already been confirmed, according to the California Department of Public Health. The state, which is the country’s largest dairy supplier, has become the epicenter of bird flu in cows and has concerned public health experts since the beginning of the outbreak for this reason.

The people with confirmed infections worked with dairy cattle infected with the H5N1 virus, also known as bird flu, which suggests that the virus has not yet developed the ability to effectively transfer between humans. However, the people with confirmed infections worked at nine different farms across the state, indicating the virus is widespread among herds of cattle.

Source: California becomes epicenter of bird flu crisis as more human cases reported

This article brings to mind the saying by Ferris Bueller, "Life moves pretty fast, If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you may miss it."

Confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans have been so far rare, but severe and with a high mortality rate. The study’s findings suggest that actual prevalence in humans may be currently underestimated – as non-severe cases may have been undetected or may have presented similar symptoms to other influenza types.

In the past few years, several H5N1 cases have been detected among livestock and wild animals globally – including a multi-state outbreak among dairy cows in the United States. Understanding actual rates of H5N1 exposure in humans will help prevent further spillover – and a possible new pandemic – as the virus may further mutate to maximise community transmission.

Possible new transmission route for highly pathogenic avian influenza

To date, close contact with domesticated poultry – previously infected through contact with migratory birds – has been a widely discussed route of “bird flu” transmission into humans. While domesticated animals have been the focus of other studies, the new study, set in Malaysian Borneo, suggests that people living near habitats of these wild species may also have increased risks of exposure.

2,000 samples from individuals across four districts in Northern Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, were serologically tested for influenza exposure. The selected population was exposed to domesticated poultry and wild shorebirds, both potential carriers of H5 infection.

Analysis of blood samples identified antibodies suggesting that human participants had previously been exposed to H5 viruses. However, no human cases had ever been reported in the area – despite a severe poultry outbreak in 2018 and the presence of migratory birds known to carry H5 infection.

Britain has increased on Thursday the risk level of bird flu to medium from low after the virus was detected in a number of wild birds in the country over the autumn.

Source: Britain raises risk level of bird flu

Another region this time Bulgaria is experiencing an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry.

Bulgaria reports bird flu outbreak on poultry farm

Bulgaria reported an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza among poultry, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) said on Friday, as Europe faces a seasonal upturn in the deadly disease.

The H5N1 virus was detected in a flock of 7,669 poultry in the village of Maritsa, causing the death of 764 birds, the Paris-based WOAH said, citing a report from the Bulgarian authorities.

The outbreak continues in Michigan.

Today, Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) Director Tim Boring announced the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a dairy herd from Clinton County, bringing the total number of affected dairy herds in Michigan to 30.

U.S.: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Detected in Clinton County Dairy Herd in Michigan

Yesterday, I reported that Great Britain has raised the alert level for H5N1. Today two more countries France and Germany have decided to follow suit.

Source: European countries raise avian flu alert level

Beyond these three countries, other European nations are also grappling with HPAI outbreaks. Hungary has reported the highest number of outbreaks in the past three weeks, with ten cases primarily in commercial duck flocks. Italy confirmed its first HPAI cases of the season on October 1, affecting poultry farms in Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, and Lombardy. Poland has also seen three outbreaks linked to the same virus variant since the start of October.

Source: European countries on avian flu alert

This year, H5N1 influenza has affected more than 103 million wild birds, poultry and backyard flocks and 323 dairy herds in the United States, according to the CDC. There have been 25 reported cases in humans in five states — 11 in California since Oct. 3.

“One of the most important parts to public health responses is having the time to implement them and being prepared,” Alessandro Zulli, PhD, postdoctoral researcher in civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, said during a media briefing ahead of the conference.

“That’s really where wastewater monitoring can help with these things,” Zulli said. “All of our detections in the wastewater were often days ahead of when it was actually detected in cattle, because cows don’t really go to the doctor.”

For their study, Zulli and colleagues developed an assay that enabled them to differentiate H5 viruses from other influenza A viruses in wastewater. According to the researchers, it demonstrated 100% specificity and 90% sensitivity in detecting H5 viruses based on testing against clinical specimens, including other influenza A viruses.

The assay identified 59 wastewater treatment plants with increases in the H5 this year that coincided with the bird flu outbreak in cattle.

Source: Detection of H5 in wastewater may have offered early bird flu warning

Another article goes into more detail about the state of H5N1 in California.

Despite what California officials say is a proactive approach, public health experts outside the state say too little is being done to track and respond to avian flu, which has spread to 105 dairy farms since the virus was first found here in August. The stakes are high: Approximately half of documented human H5N1 avian flu cases in the past two decades were deadly, according to the World Health Organization.

The article then goes on to say: "Flu antivirals must be given within days of symptom onset, meaning there is only a small window to administer medicine that could potentially save lives."

Source: Avian flu spreading in California raises pandemic threat for humans

This virus is on the move. It is passing through the different species of birds and animals. Once it perfects its ability to strike humans, it will be extremely deadly. This threat is so very, very fast. Within hours of showing symptoms unless you react, you will die.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed seven cases of H5N1 bird flu in California this week, bringing the state's total to 13 since April.

More bird flu cases in California; none detected in Arizona livestock

H5N1 is on the move in Humans

North Macedonia is located just north of Greece.

The main zoo in North Macedonia’s capital Skopje was closed Saturday after authorities confirmed the presence of a highly pathogenic strain of bird flu. Authorities immediately put down dozens of ducks, geese, chickens and one jackdaw, which inhabited the same pond.

Bird flu: Distressing images show dead cows rotting in the sun as cases overwhelm farms

Cows in California are dying of bird flu at a much faster rate than cattle in other impacted states - and the situation is beginning to spin out of control.

Distressing images circulating on social media show dead cows rotting in the sun as dairy farms become overwhelmed.
This poses an additional risk of the disease spreading as carcasses left in the open may be picked apart by scavengers, facilitating the infections in other animals.

Bird flu has been reported in cattle across 14 different states, with 324 herds affected in total. Of these, 124 are in California, making it by far the worst-hit state.

California is the epicenter of the current outbreak of Bird Flu but it is on the move.

Four agricultural workers in southeast Washington have preliminarily tested positive for bird flu after working around an infected poultry flock at a commercial egg farm.

Between 2003 and April of this year, the World Health Organization recorded 889 cases and 463 deaths in 23 countries caused by the H5N1 bird flu virus.

Source: Four farm workers in Washington appear to test positive for bird flu

Another account relates, "Four workers at a commercial egg farm near Pasco in (Franklin County in) Eastern Washington have tested positive for avian influenza, according to preliminary test results. They work at a commercial poultry operation that reported many chickens suddenly dying on Oct. 11, with tests confirming a bird flu outbreak on Tuesday. About 800,000 chickens are being euthanized and eggs are being destroyed."

Another report goes on to say, "There have been 27 reported human cases, not including the presumptive positive cases in Washington, of H5 bird flu this year in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Twenty-three of them were recorded in California and Colorado." That means that if you add in Washington state, we will be at 31 human cases.

I came across an interesting article that summarizes the effect of H5N1 on the cattle industry.

Has Bird Flu Flown the Coop, or Is It a Problem Still to be Reckoned With?

In Michigan, a number of cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), commonly referred to as “bird flu” affected dairy herds during the spring of 2024. Since then, new cases reported during the summer months have decreased to a total of six over five months in four counties (Clinton, Gratiot, Van Buren and Shiawassee). While these may not be all the positive farms, certainly it appears that the number of confirmed cases has been more sporadic.

However, USDA reported 43 confirmed cases nationally during the month of September, many of which were in California where reports showed herd infections occurring at a fast rate (reportedly 16 dairy herds between September 18 and 23). The bottom line is that the risk is not over, the disease has not passed, and farmers should be diligent.

There is much we have learned since HPAI was first identified as the cause of the symptoms seen in cattle herds in Texas and Kansas in late March 2024. What we know at this point is that when a herd becomes affected, it can spread rapidly with the incidence peaking 4-6 days after the first animals are affected, and that it is most likely to affect older cows (> 1 lactation) in the mid to late stages of lactation, according to “Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in domestic dairy cattle and cats,” by Burrough, E. R. et al.

From the experience of farms that have had HPAI, we know that feed intake drops, rumination decreases and milk production, therefore, drops rapidly. Most cows recover, and herds recover within weeks. Farms have reported some abortions (likely due to high fever), some increased culling and certainly higher labor and veterinary costs.

-----------------------------------

So let me stand back a little and explain what is happening. H5N1 otherwise known as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and also called Bird Flu is being transmitted by birds. In the northern hemisphere these birds fly north in the spring and south in the fall. That is why we are experiencing an outbreak as winter approaches. The birds fly north and south during the seasons along predefined flight paths. That is why some U.S. states experienced outbreaks in the spring of 2024. It was along the normal flight paths that these birds used. At the moment (fall of 2024) the birds are flying south for the winter and they are carrying H5N1 with them. And the U.S. is experiencing an explosion of H5N1 in birds (including chickens)/animals (including cattle primarily dairy cows)/humans (primarily farm workers) in the U.S.

I came across another article that peers into the scope of the H5N1 pandemic currently underway in California.

A Miserable Week as H5N1 Rolls on in Dairy, Poultry, and People

As the California outbreak intensifies and Fall rolls on, H5N1 influenza seems to be making its forecast mark on the U.S. livestock and poultry industry. In summary California’s dairy case count now stands at 124 herds, with Michigan also adding a case this past week. Ominously, Utah and Washington reported outbreaks in 2 large layer flocks (2.69 million birds between them), both located in counties with major dairy populations. Neither state has publicly stated the clade of the H5N1 virus affecting the flocks, nor announced any plans at this point to test dairy herd bulk tank samples near the affected herds. Washington also announced a smaller infected poultry flock in a marine-adjacent area, perhaps related to wild bird populations.

The article then goes on to discussing the outbreak in humans. It cites an article in newspaper POLITICO titled
"Avian Flu Spreading In California Raises Pandemic Threat To Humans - POLITICO"

But between March 31 and Oct. 14, only 25 individuals in the state have been tested for avian flu, according to CDPH. Workers who are symptomatic are first screened for flu before additional bird-flu-specific testing is performed. California is home to over 17,500 dairy workers, most of whom are in the Central Valley.

With 11 confirmed positive samples through October 14th, that means that 11 of 25, or over 40% of workers tested for H5 were positive! With over 17,500 workers and perhaps 10-15% of the herds now likely confirmed infected, the state has massively undertested an exposed population of maybe 2000 workers on those farms! Public health officials are only sampling a small percentage of likely infected dairy farm workers.