Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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23 Mar 2020, 3:16 am

Thanks for that, Beneficii, I was also just about to post about the loss of smell and taste symptoms in otherwise asymptomatic covid19 cases.

Here is a rather good video of mayors in Italy telling people off for breaking lockdown regulations. It's funny but also serious. It's as if the people wandering around on their own think it's OK because there's no one else out/near them ... and don't realise what would happen if everyone else followed their example! Either because they're not very good at making those sort of connections or don't care/think that they, unlike everybody else, have a right to that freedom.

https://twitter.com/protectheflames/sta ... 69824?s=20

Last edited by ouinon2 on 23 Mar 2020, 3:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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23 Mar 2020, 3:19 am

*So far*, the mortality rate, here in Australia, is less than 0.5%
You heard me. :mrgreen:

I am optimistic, but not foolishly optimistic to think it isn't going to rise, particularly after/if the medical system is overrun.

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23 Mar 2020, 3:44 am

Misslizard wrote:

Instacart is hiring.

That was to be expected.

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23 Mar 2020, 3:45 am

Pepe wrote:

*So far*, the mortality rate, here in Australia, is less than 0.5%
You heard me. :mrgreen:

I am optimistic, but not foolishly optimistic to think it isn't going to rise, particularly after/if the medical system is overrun.

It seems to me that the more of those who are at risk are sequestered, the less hospitalizations and deaths there will be. Then if it does spread exponentially, the biggest problem will be all those who have to stay home to recover.

63 year old Tom Hanks continues to feel better.

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23 Mar 2020, 4:09 am

Korea is apparently the most efficiently dealing with the plague.
Well, they previously had SARS and MERS to develop routines for epidemies.
What they do (and seems to be working):
1. Transparency - that's what I read, the Koreans systematically publish their moves;
2. Massive scale testing;
3. Pinpointing and quarantining the nuclei of the epidemics;
4. Widespread cooperation from the side of their society.

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23 Mar 2020, 4:23 am

ouinon2 wrote:

Thanks for that, Beneficii, I was also just about to post about the loss of smell and taste symptoms in otherwise asymptomatic covid19 cases.

Here is a rather good video of mayors in Italy telling people off for breaking lockdown regulations. It's funny but also serious. It's as if the people wandering around on their own think it's OK because there's no one else out/near them ... and don't realise what would happen if everyone else followed their example! Either because they're not very good at making those sort of connections or don't care/think that they, unlike everybody else, have a right to that freedom.

https://twitter.com/protectheflames/sta ... 69824?s=20

This is very typical of the Mediterranian mentality where I also live, we don't like to be told what to do. We don't have caskets in my religion, but the women in my country wouldn't be seen dead without their hair looking nice or their facial hair removed. In this clip this woman is begging the Prime Minister to let us women out to go to the cosmeticians and hairdressers
She says yes, toilet paper is important, and food also, but how can we live without the hairdresser and cosmeticians. It is of course a joke.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 9317523873

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Last edited by Teach51 on 23 Mar 2020, 4:39 am, edited 2 times in total.

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23 Mar 2020, 4:34 am

EzraS wrote:

Agreed.
I am bemused if this isn't happening.
I've been hiding under the bed for close to a month now.
Quarantining as many older people as possible seems the way to go.
Where is this falling down in other countries?

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23 Mar 2020, 4:48 am

Surely the virus is allergic to skunks. Mebbe holding a pet one while shopping would help enforce social distancing!

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23 Mar 2020, 5:11 am

envirozentinel wrote:

Surely the virus is allergic to skunks. Mebbe holding a pet one while shopping would help enforce social distancing!

I doubt you would be able to carry me around these days.
I have put on an extra 3 kgs. :mrgreen:

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23 Mar 2020, 6:34 am

Log-linear charts comparing comparing countries' number of cases starting with the day of their 100th reported case, and number of deaths starting with the day of their 10th reported case:

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23 Mar 2020, 6:40 am

First CV death reported in my county,ugh :skull:

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23 Mar 2020, 6:47 am

beneficii wrote:

Log-linear charts comparing comparing countries' number of cases starting with the day of their 100th reported case, and number of deaths starting with the day of their 10th reported case:

It is likely that Europe has higher rate of unreported and undiagnosed cases than East Asia.
In such case, higher death rate in Europe would mean more advanced stage than the number of reported cases would indicate.

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23 Mar 2020, 6:56 am

I think meters charts and graphs for last year's flu would look a lot worse, considering there were 35 million cases of it and something like 56 thousand deaths in just the US.

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23 Mar 2020, 7:04 am

EzraS wrote:

I find it interesting that some on twitter go on about how the virus will collapse our healthcare system if we don't take measures that will collapse our economy. As a situation 10 times worse than the great depression is going to save our healthcare system and keep people from dying.

And it seems it does not occur to any of them that instead of locking down the 95% who will experience a mild case, to save the 5% who will go critical, they need to quarantine the ones likey to go critical instead.

These vulnerable people who are critical and who have died. How did they get the virus? Why weren't they being kept in quarantine?

Well, we could have followed South Korea's example, which is a democratic country (not authoritarian, like some here have claimed). South Korea never implemented a lockdown. The key to South Korea's success was aggressive testing--including of young people--and aggressive contact-tracing, and quarantining those affected. That is definitely something to learn from here. We could have avoided having to do the shelter-in-place thing here had we done this early enough:

Quote:

Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. “Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... ts-success

Now this article was written almost a week ago, and expressed uncertainty over whether South Korea can hold this, but as you can see from the chart, South Korea has had very few new cases since, relatively speaking, and its growth rate of deaths is still slowing quite a bit.

Of course, being able to do this means probably investing for the long term in public health measures, even where you don't see short-term results. And in today's neoliberal environment in the West, that is a difficult proposition to sell.

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23 Mar 2020, 7:10 am

Here's an interesting tweet from someone.

"Yes! I am 73 and would rather die of the coronavirus myself then have the economy and our culture go down tubes. I want a better future for my kids and grandkids"

Another sharing my sentiments.

"15 days. Then we isolate the high risk groups and the rest of us get back to work before it’s all over for everyone!!"

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23 Mar 2020, 7:23 am

I haven't heard S. Korea being called authoritarian. But N. Korea certainly is. Along with China.

I think the most practical thing we can do now is aggressive testing and mainly those who are at risk staying sequestered.

Last edited by EzraS on 23 Mar 2020, 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.

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