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Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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Pepe
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26 Mar 2020, 7:45 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
It would be nice if we had an antibodies test in mass circulation by Easter.


1,500,000 test kits heading down under.
I'm surprised we Aussies could get them because I was under the impression we are irrelevant/insignificant in the scheme of things.



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26 Mar 2020, 7:45 pm

EzraS wrote:
Tens of millions of people without jobs, and no jobs to go back to because of millions of companies went bankrupt, equals tens of millions of children suffering and even dying. And probably having no future.

The people recovered from COVID-19 and that are non-contagious of course should be allowed to go back to work even as of now. The next batch are the healthy younger people, likely in the age range of 20-39. It's doable. But before that, we need to make sure we have sufficient rapid testing kits.


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kraftiekortie
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26 Mar 2020, 7:47 pm

And antibodies tests for the ones who recovered.



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26 Mar 2020, 7:48 pm

EzraS wrote:
blooiejagwa wrote:
EzraS wrote:

I hope so. I still have the same feeling I had a month ago. That looking back it will turn out that there was a huge overreaction to this thing.


You're wrong. The overreaction/protective measures now is what's preventing more of a spike in cases and decreasing the length of time necessary long term. The numbers show that.

I mean that's been repeated countless times. We know it is mild for most and it will taper off. It tapers off BECAUSE we initially overreact and follow precautions-- not despite it.

Every country who managed to contain the issue in the end did it because they 'overreacted' - a necessary step.
You can contract it but die of compromised immunity of something else or complications from it.

If the money issue is getting at people maybe they should have shown the same anger when government gives many billions yearly to fund wars that aren't even to do with them and/or are supporting military action illegal by international law


Which makes more sense:

A) As someone who is at risk I stay isolated?

B) Everyone I will not have contact with since I am isolated stays home?

The answer is A.


Nit everyone at risk is in your situation, and also a lot of young nit at risk are dying.

Why do you care so much?


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eikonabridge
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26 Mar 2020, 7:49 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
It would be nice if we had an antibodies test in mass circulation by Easter.

We will have some. But one thing even more certain is: we will have enough serum. It's a primitive way of treating the severe cases. But worth trying.


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blooiejagwa
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26 Mar 2020, 7:49 pm

Pepe wrote:
blooiejagwa wrote:
@pepe If they don't take it down (or whatever happens here, from flagging), just PM me, and I'll know what you want deleted, what is off topic,
to ease off or what exactly is wrong from an outsider's view.
Going forward do that as I'm guessing mods are easygoing. Still haven't had a message from them.


WHOA!! !
I was joking.
You may have noticed I do that a lot. :wink:

I almost *never* report.
Probably less than 3 times in 7 years.
I'm a thinker,
Not a stinker. 8)


just report me to me, whoever notices me going ballistic again. >_>

not only will that thing be removed,
it'll give me a gauge of what limits there are to a topic--
from a mind that isn't mine.
poor theory of mind here. and (alleged) rudeness in real life perhaps here too.

they did say that perhaps the reason in China and South Korea the reason re-infections were being reported at all (which also contributed to the hype), was simply that they hadn't given it time to play out before sending people back to work.

i.e. it was the same illness,
that been considered over and done with--
though it was still lingering.
I guess it comes and goes like the tide.

from what's happening here, most people are still working once recovered.

my sister and her husband were ill (with flu or another virus, it seems) for 2 weeks (he was ill for 4 weeks actually) but returned straight away after.
Those who had it are still going back after recovery and the subsequent quarantine period.

i think the worst situation is in the province of British Columbia. People there weren't listening about the physical distancing, till the numbers shot up.


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26 Mar 2020, 7:51 pm

One thing I learned from this whole thing is that the governor of NY is really handsome and smart and worth having a crush on.


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Magna
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26 Mar 2020, 7:57 pm

blooiejagwa wrote:
One thing I learned from this whole thing is that the governor of NY is really handsome and smart and worth having a crush on.


It's hard to know what to believe in this day and age, but I read that rather than prisoners in New York making hand sanitizer like the governor of NY said they were, prisoner whistleblowers have said they're just dumping pre-manufactured off-brand hand sanitizer into new "New York" bottles and simply repackaging it. If that's the case, that's not how the governor of New York portrayed things. :(



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26 Mar 2020, 7:57 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Alright I give in. Lets shut everything down until the virus is completely over with.

Nope. You don't understand the value of time. Read https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.

With this virus, what the lockdown has achieved is we bought time. Rapid testing is a reality. Now we just need to mass produce rapid testing kits. The lockdown also gave us time to discover that hydroxychloroquine plus azythromycin work alright. The lockdown gave us time for the masks and respirators. The lockdown gave us time to move the homeless into proper accomodations. The lockdown taught everyone about social distancing, about how to handle packages, about frequent hand washing, about wearing masks in unventilated areas and in public transportation.

The lockdown gave us time to plan for the re-start of the work force. We can send recovered people back to work. They have the immunity. We can send young people back to work, but with a condition: frequent testing. Younger people of course are careless, but precisely because they are careless, many of them will get infected, and two weeks after their infection, they will contribute to herd immunity.

The early measures in Taiwan gave it time to develop rapid testing kit. In the world there are now several versions of rapid testing kits available. What's going to allow people to go back to work is not a cure, is not a vaccine, but rapid testing. We need time to mass produce rapid testing kits. Now we are pretty sure that in another month, tops 1.5 months, rapid testing kits will be enough to allow some decent size of people to return to work. Now it's about how to time the mass production of rapid testing kits with the number of people returning to work. We need to be smart in re-introducing the work force in phases, so that we have enough test kits to test everyone on a frequent basis.

To say it more simply:
- lockdown = fighting in the dark, you don't know who are at risk --> very wasteful in resources
- rapid testing = targeted fighting, you know precisely who are at risk --> very little waste of resources

But you have to pause to think, what has allowed us to get to the stage of achieving rapid testing? Yep, it's the lockdown. The lockdown bought us time. It's was scientific problem, and it needed a scientific solution. Whenever people are faced with major issues, the first thing is to buy time. With time, you can assemble your team. Once you have a team, you have brains to help you solve problems. Time is essential.

We don't want a repeat of the situation in Italy, where doctors have to decide who live and who die. This virus will be defeated by the people making rapid testing kits.


First of all I was responding to all those who have said we have to quarantine until the virus runs its coarse.

Second of all what is rapid testing supposed to accomplish? All those who test negative go back to work? What is to stop them from catching the virus after they test negative? How many originally infected people did it take to start the pandemic? One?



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26 Mar 2020, 7:59 pm

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/25/82059548 ... ium=social

Supporting earlier points by several people here about earlier testing.


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26 Mar 2020, 8:00 pm

We should use the antibodies test for the recovered, even more than rapid COVID-19 testing.

Absolutely no doubt we should have tested way earlier in the process of the disease.



blooiejagwa
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26 Mar 2020, 8:01 pm

Magna wrote:
blooiejagwa wrote:
One thing I learned from this whole thing is that the governor of NY is really handsome and smart and worth having a crush on.


It's hard to know what to believe in this day and age, but I read that rather than prisoners in New York making hand sanitizer like the governor of NY said they were, prisoner whistleblowers have said they're just dumping pre-manufactured off-brand hand sanitizer into new "New York" bottles and simply repackaging it. If that's the case, that's not how the governor of New York portrayed things. :(


I didn't know about prisoners and hand sanitizer. LOL

I'm just being superficial.

But that's quite a petty thing to do, makes no sense except for publicity or whatever. Like magz was saying it's a good chance for anyone to look like a hero.


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26 Mar 2020, 8:16 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
EzraS wrote:
Alright I give in. Lets shut everything down until the virus is completely over with.

Nope. You don't understand the value of time. Read https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.

With this virus, what the lockdown has achieved is we bought time. Rapid testing is a reality. Now we just need to mass produce rapid testing kits. The lockdown also gave us time to discover that hydroxychloroquine plus azythromycin work alright. The lockdown gave us time for the masks and respirators. The lockdown gave us time to move the homeless into proper accomodations. The lockdown taught everyone about social distancing, about how to handle packages, about frequent hand washing, about wearing masks in unventilated areas and in public transportation.

The lockdown gave us time to plan for the re-start of the work force. We can send recovered people back to work. They have the immunity. We can send young people back to work, but with a condition: frequent testing. Younger people of course are careless, but precisely because they are careless, many of them will get infected, and two weeks after their infection, they will contribute to herd immunity.

The early measures in Taiwan gave it time to develop rapid testing kit. In the world there are now several versions of rapid testing kits available. What's going to allow people to go back to work is not a cure, is not a vaccine, but rapid testing. We need time to mass produce rapid testing kits. Now we are pretty sure that in another month, tops 1.5 months, rapid testing kits will be enough to allow some decent size of people to return to work. Now it's about how to time the mass production of rapid testing kits with the number of people returning to work. We need to be smart in re-introducing the work force in phases, so that we have enough test kits to test everyone on a frequent basis.

To say it more simply:
- lockdown = fighting in the dark, you don't know who are at risk --> very wasteful in resources
- rapid testing = targeted fighting, you know precisely who are at risk --> very little waste of resources

But you have to pause to think, what has allowed us to get to the stage of achieving rapid testing? Yep, it's the lockdown. The lockdown bought us time. It's was scientific problem, and it needed a scientific solution. Whenever people are faced with major issues, the first thing is to buy time. With time, you can assemble your team. Once you have a team, you have brains to help you solve problems. Time is essential.

We don't want a repeat of the situation in Italy, where doctors have to decide who live and who die. This virus will be defeated by the people making rapid testing kits.


Pessimistic reply ahead:
Massive testing and tracing worked in China, Taiwan, Singapore, and S. Korea.
The virus entered S. Korea mostly via one church.
Singapore and Taiwan are small areas geographically.
This makes tracing easier than in America.

China is like the other places at all big and the largest population of any country in the world but has a centralized authoritarian government.

America is governed by mishmash of big corporations, Federal State and local governments. America is divided politically on not only how to solve problems the but divided on the nature of problems but even if things are a problem. You see it in the debate here on WP about if the problem is mostly the virus or panic. Beyond that there is a whole bunch of people who think the whole thing is an invention or hype by Democrats to do what they could not do with Russiagate and impeachment. It is not only political, COVID-19 in America at this point is largely a Blue State epidemic.

Based on all the above I just can't see how America produces and makes available tests for over 300,000,000 people, a herculean effect without all the above factored in at this late stage.


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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 26 Mar 2020, 8:33 pm, edited 4 times in total.

kraftiekortie
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26 Mar 2020, 8:17 pm

That’s why we should have a more centralized health service in times like these......



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26 Mar 2020, 8:26 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
That’s why we should have a more centralized health service in time like these......

America's can do attitude of rugged individualism made America the dominant force military and culturally for decades. Americans had a much higher standard of living and luxuries than most other countries. It's Federalism also was an important factor. For this situation these are cripplers.


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26 Mar 2020, 8:36 pm

EzraS wrote:
Billions of children: "mommy, daddy I am hungry and cold living in a cardboard box".


Billions of kids, mommy daddy why are you dead, why’s jimmy dead.


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