Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 8:37 pm

What is testing supposed to accomplish?

kraftiekortie
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26 Mar 2020, 8:39 pm

It lets us know the extent of the problem.

sly279
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26 Mar 2020, 8:41 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:

eikonabridge wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Alright I give in. Lets shut everything down until the virus is completely over with.

Nope. You don't understand the value of time. Read https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56.

With this virus, what the lockdown has achieved is we bought time. Rapid testing is a reality. Now we just need to mass produce rapid testing kits. The lockdown also gave us time to discover that hydroxychloroquine plus azythromycin work alright. The lockdown gave us time for the masks and respirators. The lockdown gave us time to move the homeless into proper accomodations. The lockdown taught everyone about social distancing, about how to handle packages, about frequent hand washing, about wearing masks in unventilated areas and in public transportation.

The lockdown gave us time to plan for the re-start of the work force. We can send recovered people back to work. They have the immunity. We can send young people back to work, but with a condition: frequent testing. Younger people of course are careless, but precisely because they are careless, many of them will get infected, and two weeks after their infection, they will contribute to herd immunity.

The early measures in Taiwan gave it time to develop rapid testing kit. In the world there are now several versions of rapid testing kits available. What's going to allow people to go back to work is not a cure, is not a vaccine, but rapid testing. We need time to mass produce rapid testing kits. Now we are pretty sure that in another month, tops 1.5 months, rapid testing kits will be enough to allow some decent size of people to return to work. Now it's about how to time the mass production of rapid testing kits with the number of people returning to work. We need to be smart in re-introducing the work force in phases, so that we have enough test kits to test everyone on a frequent basis.

To say it more simply:
- lockdown = fighting in the dark, you don't know who are at risk --> very wasteful in resources
- rapid testing = targeted fighting, you know precisely who are at risk --> very little waste of resources

But you have to pause to think, what has allowed us to get to the stage of achieving rapid testing? Yep, it's the lockdown. The lockdown bought us time. It's was scientific problem, and it needed a scientific solution. Whenever people are faced with major issues, the first thing is to buy time. With time, you can assemble your team. Once you have a team, you have brains to help you solve problems. Time is essential.

We don't want a repeat of the situation in Italy, where doctors have to decide who live and who die. This virus will be defeated by the people making rapid testing kits.

Pessimistic reply ahead:
Massive testing and tracing worked in China, Taiwan, Singapore, and S. Korea.
The virus entered S. Korea mostly via one church.
Singapore and Taiwan are small areas geographically.
This makes tracing easier than in America.

China is like the other places at all big and the largest population of any country in the world but has a centralized authoritarian government.

America is governed by mishmash of big corporations, Federal State and local governments. America is divided politically on not only how to solve problems the but divided on the nature of problems but even if things are a problem. You see it in the debate here on WP about if the problem is mostly the virus or panic. Beyond that there is a whole bunch of people who think the whole thing is an invention or hype by Democrats to do what they could not do with Russiagate and impeachment. It is not only political, COVID-19 in America at this point is largely a Blue State epidemic.

Based on all the above I just can't see how America produces and makes available tests for over 300,000,000 people, a herculean effect without all the above factored in at this late stage.

Even if we could, you can test negative today and positive tomorrow.
It’s nit a once and done thing. And I don’t see how when things are escalating every day over 80,000 infected from just 20,000 Early this week we can even think about opening the lockdowns.
Only in America would we remove lockdowns as cases and deaths rapid rise.seems backwards thinking.

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 8:44 pm

sly279 wrote:

EzraS wrote:

Billions of children: "mommy, daddy I am hungry and cold living in a cardboard box".

Billions of kids, mommy daddy why are you dead, why’s jimmy dead.

The fact is there are already tens of millions of people out of work or will be.

The fact is that 95% of the people with the virus are in mild condition and expected to recover.

The fact is that 5% of critical cases is not going to equal billions of deaths.

The fact is that tens of millions of people with no jobs and no jobs to go back to could equal billions of children suffering and dying.

That is if shutdowns last an inordinately long amount of time.

Last edited by EzraS on 26 Mar 2020, 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

sly279
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26 Mar 2020, 8:46 pm

Pepe wrote:

IsabellaLinton wrote:

EzraS wrote:

As someone who is at high risk I disagree.

Me taking extreme measures is what is called for.

You know I empathise Ez, and I have high-risk family members in isolation too. I understand what you are trying to say.

I see your logic and your reasonable thought. I just don't understand how all the immunocompromised people of the world could legitimately leave work, stay home, isolate for an unknown number of months, while everyone else carries on spreading the virus around this planet. In essence, it would be like saying that the vulnerable population (hundreds of millions) would just disappear from society. I sincerely doubt they would get media attention or sympathy, and they would be fired from their jobs, most likely without government support or advocacy. It would be terribly difficult to sweep these people under the rug and cross our fingers that they can come out again one day. I know that isn't your intention to be harsh like that, and I see that there's no easy solution in this mess. I just felt like commenting. I'm glad you are doing well and taking good precautions in the meantime.

-Those immunocompromised people should be given special dispensation and be given special financial support from the government.
-Better they stay home for an "unknown number of months" than the vast majority.
-*I* have disappeared from society and I don't have a problem with that if it preserves my health.
Thing like Skype, etc, *will* become more popular to alleviate loneliness. People don't *really* need to be within breathing distance unless you want to do the nasty. :mrgreen:

And the people who live with them and contact them right! And then the people who live or contact those people. Bam everyone’s back in lockdown.
Seems we as a society so are super interwoven urban populations strange.

If I go to work I could die and my mom definitely will die.
I think if I got it I’d just kill myself.
All so people can’t be inconvenienced for few weeks. My state is under lockdown and still people aren’t social distancing or staying home, Best is martial laws and troops deployed with checkpoints. That probably the only way selfish conservatives will f*****g do poop to help stop this. Their acting like toddlers,

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 8:58 pm

sly279 wrote:

Pepe wrote:

IsabellaLinton wrote:

EzraS wrote:

As someone who is at high risk I disagree.

Me taking extreme measures is what is called for.

You have an irrational fear of a virus that causes only 5% of the people who get it to become critical. And the majority of those who go critical are elderly and or have serious health issues.

jimmy m
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26 Mar 2020, 9:02 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:

It’s all the people who need ventilators....that’s what this response was all about. This virus causes an inordinate amount of people to be required to be put on ventilators. 3,000 ventilators is enough for NYC during most flu seasons......but 30,000 ventilators is required for this epidemic.

Most people get mild cases.....but way too many are required to be hospitalized.

Prisma Health has developed an FDA authorized 3-D printed device that lets a single ventilator treat four patients.

Since it can be printed on a 3D printer and since the mod is authorized by the FDA, this can be implemented rather quickly. Also New York approves ventilator splitting, allowing hospitals to treat two patients with one machine. Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the new policy on Thursday. New York has approximately 5,000 – 6,000 ventilators -- used to help some of the sickest COVID-19 patients breathe when they are unable to do so on their own – and recently purchased an additional 7,000 machines. The state has also received 400 machines from the federal government’s stockpile. So it seems like help is on the way.

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26 Mar 2020, 9:03 pm

White House briefing summary:

Jordan Schachtel @JordanSchachtel 3h

Dr. Birx update:
-Says early models (from Imperial College UK) were emphatically wrong (ahem, doomsday preachers)
-No health care system in US right now is overwhelmed. Pros are handling it.
-No exponential/rapid growth.
-55% of cases in NYC metro area.

Jordan Schachtel @JordanSchachtel 1h

It's official: Dr. Birx and Dr. Fauci are no longer in the good graces of the media and the doomsday preachers. Seeing an explosion of hate on social media, because they dared to explain the data and tell the truth about the COVID-19 outbreak.

https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/sta ... 73312?s=20

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26 Mar 2020, 9:04 pm

The situation is starting to get worse in Canada. I'm going to be spending the next 7 days indoors until I get my GST cheque. If there's a breakout at the nursing home that's less than a block from where I live, I'll be staying in my apartment until the whole thing is over unless I need to get food or paper goods. There have been outbreaks in many care homes in British Columbia. I know that my city is next.

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 9:05 pm

jimmy m wrote:

kraftiekortie wrote:

How many in New York are currently on respirators?

eikonabridge
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26 Mar 2020, 9:05 pm

EzraS wrote:

You have an irrational fear of a virus that causes only 5% of the people who get it to become critical. And the majority of those who go critical are elderly and or have serious health issues.

We don't have the infrastructure to handle that 5% all at once. Everything we are doing is to save that 5% of the population.

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Darmok
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26 Mar 2020, 9:06 pm

In this case it's not all of them, but certainly many of them. (All of them was the Russiagate hoax.)

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26 Mar 2020, 9:09 pm

Life in America. (Copied from another forum.)

Truckers are saying “f**k the log rules, I’m hauling” and they’re getting supplies to the stores. People are stocking the shelves all night and letting old people shop first. Folks are buying meals for truckers, who (obviously) can’t go through the drive-ups. Asking ’em what they want, then buying it for them.

Carnival Cruise Line has told Trump “We can match those big Navy Hospital ships with some fully staffed cruise ships”.

GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.

In a project with which I’m loosely associated, a very-effective agricultural disease-control agent was re-purposed and re-labeled specifically for Corona-virus control by the FDA and EPA in under ten days, from initial request to distribution.

Restaurants and schools have said, “we’ve got kitchens and staff; we can feed the poor kids who used have school lunch.”

NBA basketball players have said, “Hold our basketballs while we write checks to pay the arena staff.”

Construction companies are saying, “Here are some high-end masks for medical staff and doctors”.

Distilleries are making sanitizer out of distilling “heads and tails” which are normally discarded. Nasty s**t to drink, but effective sanitizer.

People are tipping grocery check-out clerks and thanking them for taking the risk.

Local, state, and county governments are taking control of everything the feds cannot do. Some are doing it wrong, but for the first time in decades … they’re doing it. Federalism is re-emerging, and the smallest unit of government is the individual and the family. This, too, is re-emerging after decades of dormancy.

As Japanese Admiral Isokuru Yamamoto said, after Pearl Harbor … “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

I sense this has just happened. We have a wonderful country, the greatest single force for good in all human history. We have closed our borders, with good reason, yet we have top medical people now assisting North Korea in their response to the virus.

Many things have been re-set, and will never be the same.

By microbiological accident, we are living in profoundly transformative historical times.

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 9:11 pm

Darmok wrote:

There a few hospitals in hot spots like New York that have their hands full. But overall most hospitals are doing fine. I recently went to a big health facility in Washington, which has the forth highest number of cases in America, and the place was practically devoid of patients. The staff were standing around chatting and laughing because there was no one for them to treat.

jimmy m
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26 Mar 2020, 9:12 pm

FEMA has provided to date:
9 million N95 masks
20 million face masks
3.1 million face shields
Nearly 6 thousand ventilators
2.6 million gowns
14.6 million gloves

520,000 Americans have been tested for the coronavirus, including 100,000 test yesterday along.

The equipment used by anesthesiologist can be easily converted into ventilators.

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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 9:16 pm

eikonabridge wrote:

EzraS wrote:

You have an irrational fear of a virus that causes only 5% of the people who get it to become critical. And the majority of those who go critical are elderly and or have serious health issues.

We don't have the infrastructure to handle that 5% all at once. Everything we are doing is to save that 5% of the population.

That guy saying he would probably kill himself if he got it sounded a bit irrational to me.

And while I agree with the concept that lives are not expendable. Why not take similar measures regarding all the other preventable things that cause millions of deaths each year?

The reason why they have not taken extraordinary measures against all those many preventable things that cause millions of deaths, is because it would cause too much disruption to the fabric of society.

It does not seem too far fetched to me that with all the people staying home, more lives will have been saved from car crashes, than from the virus.

Last edited by EzraS on 26 Mar 2020, 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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