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kraftiekortie
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26 Mar 2020, 9:23 pm

He’s going through a lot of stress.

He’s had to make some rough choices because of the Coronavirus.



jimmy m
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26 Mar 2020, 9:24 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
With this virus, what the lockdown has achieved is we bought time. Rapid testing is a reality. Now we just need to mass produce rapid testing kits. The lockdown also gave us time to discover that hydroxychloroquine plus azythromycin work alright. The lockdown gave us time for the masks and respirators. The lockdown gave us time to move the homeless into proper accomodations. The lockdown taught everyone about social distancing, about how to handle packages, about frequent hand washing, about wearing masks in unventilated areas and in public transportation.

The lockdown gave us time to plan for the re-start of the work force. We can send recovered people back to work. They have the immunity. We can send young people back to work, but with a condition: frequent testing. Younger people of course are careless, but precisely because they are careless, many of them will get infected, and two weeks after their infection, they will contribute to herd immunity.


I agree.


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eikonabridge
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26 Mar 2020, 9:26 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Based on all the above I just can't see how America produces and makes available tests for over 300,000,000 people, a herculean effect without all the above factored in at this late stage.

You don't need 300 million people tested. Of course, that'll be nice, but not necessary.

The R0 of this virus is not horribly high. It's anywhere from 1.5 to 3.5. Frankly, if everybody wears a mask at all time, and washes hands frequently, the R0 value will immediately drop below 1. Meaning the virus will disappear on its own. You won't need to do anything else.

But in the USA it is impossible to ask everyone to wear a mask. (Not only that, some young people lick toilets, or lick steel poles in subway trains.) So, like in South Korea, this is the strategy. You wait, until one case erupts. That is, when a person goes to doctor and is confirmed. Then, you test the coworkers and household members, you disinfect. You test again a few days later. You test three times for each person that have been in close contact with the confirmed case. You isolate the mild cases, and treat the severe cases. The rest of the society keep going. You can catch secondary infected people this way, before they become contagious enough to infect more people.

This approach, combined the social distancing, masks, and frequent hand washing, CAN achieve R0 below 1. It will not eliminate COVID-19 for this and the next season, but it will make COVID-19 manageable. International flights are a problem, and stricter measures are necessary there.


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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 9:31 pm

jimmy m wrote:
eikonabridge wrote:
With this virus, what the lockdown has achieved is we bought time. Rapid testing is a reality. Now we just need to mass produce rapid testing kits. The lockdown also gave us time to discover that hydroxychloroquine plus azythromycin work alright. The lockdown gave us time for the masks and respirators. The lockdown gave us time to move the homeless into proper accomodations. The lockdown taught everyone about social distancing, about how to handle packages, about frequent hand washing, about wearing masks in unventilated areas and in public transportation.

The lockdown gave us time to plan for the re-start of the work force. We can send recovered people back to work. They have the immunity. We can send young people back to work, but with a condition: frequent testing. Younger people of course are careless, but precisely because they are careless, many of them will get infected, and two weeks after their infection, they will contribute to herd immunity.


I agree.


The thing is he is talking about the lockdown past tense. But it is not past tense, it is being recommend to continue it for weeks or even months longer.

That is what millions of working class people with children to support are worried about.



ASPartOfMe
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26 Mar 2020, 9:41 pm

US overtakes China with most cases

Quote:
The US now has more confirmed cases of coronavirus than any other country with more than 83,500 positive tests.

According to the latest figures collated by Johns Hopkins University, the US has overtaken China (81,782 cases) and Italy (80,589).

But with 1,200 Covid-19-related fatalities, the US death toll lags behind China (3,291) and Italy (8,215).

The grim milestone came as President Donald Trump predicted the nation would get back to work "pretty quickly".

How did the White House react?
Asked about the latest figures at a White House briefing on Thursday afternoon, President Trump said it was "a tribute to the amount of testing that we're doing".

Vice-President Mike Pence said coronavirus tests were now available in all 50 states and more than 552,000 tests had been conducted nationwide.

Mr Trump also cast doubt on the figures coming out of Beijing, telling reporters: "You don't know what the numbers are in China."

He said he would speak to President Xi Jinping by phone on Thursday night, but denied the Chinese leader had asked him to "calm down" the language he uses to refer to the pandemic, which the US leader refers to as "the Chinese virus".

Does the president still hope to ease restrictions?
Mr Trump has set a much-criticised goal of Easter Sunday, 12 April, for reopening the country. That plan seemed to gather impetus on Thursday as it emerged an unprecedented 3.3 million Americans have been laid off because of the virus.

At Thursday's briefing, he said: "They [the American people] have to go back to work, our country has to go back, our country is based on that and I think it's going to happen pretty quickly.

"We may take sections of our country, we may take large sections of our country that aren't so seriously affected and we may do it that way."

He added: "A lot of people misinterpret when I say go back - they're going to be practising as much as you can social distancing, and washing your hands and not shaking hands and all of the things we talked about."

He promised more details next week.

What could he be planning?
In a letter to state governors on Thursday, Mr Trump said his team plans to release federal social distancing guidelines that may advise some regions to loosen restrictions.

Mr Trump wrote of a "long battle ahead" and said "robust" testing protocols might allow some counties to lift their safeguards against the coronavirus.

He said the "new guidelines" would create low, medium and high risk zones that would allow the government to advise on "maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place".

The plan emerged as new research on Thursday estimated Covid-19-related deaths in the US could top 80,000 over the coming four months.

As many as 2,300 patients could die every day during the epidemic peak, set for some point in April, even if people observe strict social distancing, according to the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.

Can the president order everyone back to work?
No. Earlier this month, he set a 15-day period to slow down the spread of Covid-19 by urging all Americans to drastically scale back their public interactions.

But those guidelines were voluntary and did not amount to a national order.

The US Constitution makes clear states have the power for maintaining public order and safety, which scholars say means it is the responsibility of governors to decide when virus-related restrictions get lifted.

Currently 21 US states have told residents to stay in their homes in order to contain the pandemic.

What's happening elsewhere in the US?
In other developments:
Canada has condemned a US proposal to deploy troops along their joint border to help fight the spread of coronavirus, with the deputy prime minister saying it would be an "entirely unnecessary step which we would view as damaging to our relationship"
A supermarket in Pennsylvania said it had to destroy more than $35,000 worth of food after a woman intentionally coughed all over it in a coronavirus prank. The local prosecutor said it would decide whether or not to press charges once the suspect had been tested for the illness
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, coyotes are being seen roaming the empty streets of the California city, where residents have withdrawn behind closed doors to limit the spread of the virus


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jimmy m
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26 Mar 2020, 9:42 pm

eikonabridge wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
It would be nice if we had an antibodies test in mass circulation by Easter.

We will have some. But one thing even more certain is: we will have enough serum. It's a primitive way of treating the severe cases. But worth trying.


The UK government has ordered more than 3 million finger prick antibody tests that could be ready in a matter of days. The tests could reveal whether someone had covid-19, but they are being checked first to show that they work properly.
Source: Coronavirus latest news: Covid-19 antibody test ready 'in days'.


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eikonabridge
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26 Mar 2020, 10:06 pm

I just downloaded the data https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_cases.csv and ran regression. The US is following a perfect exponential growth starting from March 3rd (103 cases back then). The interesting thing is that, the doubling period is 2.39 days. We all know that the typical doubling period out there is more like 3~4 days. What does this mean?

This means two things: (1) the US started testing late, it waited too long to start efficient testing of cases, (2) however, it is catching cases faster than new cases are produced, so the doubling period is shorter than normal. I know it looks scary, but the lockdown only has been 5 days in NYC (starting from March 22nd). The median incubation period is 5 days, plus typical 2-day delay, so the benefit of lockdown will only show up in another 2~3 days or so. All countries went through this phase. It's a painful step, it's scary, but in another 3 days people will start to feel better, they will start to see that they do have control over the situation.


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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 10:07 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
US overtakes China with most cases
Quote:
The US now has more confirmed cases of coronavirus than any other country with more than 83,500 positive tests.

According to the latest figures collated by Johns Hopkins University, the US has overtaken China (81,782 cases) and Italy (80,589).

But with 1,200 Covid-19-related fatalities, the US death toll lags behind China (3,291) and Italy (8,215).

The grim milestone came as President Donald Trump predicted the nation would get back to work "pretty quickly".

How did the White House react?
Asked about the latest figures at a White House briefing on Thursday afternoon, President Trump said it was "a tribute to the amount of testing that we're doing".

Vice-President Mike Pence said coronavirus tests were now available in all 50 states and more than 552,000 tests had been conducted nationwide.

Mr Trump also cast doubt on the figures coming out of Beijing, telling reporters: "You don't know what the numbers are in China."

He said he would speak to President Xi Jinping by phone on Thursday night, but denied the Chinese leader had asked him to "calm down" the language he uses to refer to the pandemic, which the US leader refers to as "the Chinese virus".

Does the president still hope to ease restrictions?
Mr Trump has set a much-criticised goal of Easter Sunday, 12 April, for reopening the country. That plan seemed to gather impetus on Thursday as it emerged an unprecedented 3.3 million Americans have been laid off because of the virus.

At Thursday's briefing, he said: "They [the American people] have to go back to work, our country has to go back, our country is based on that and I think it's going to happen pretty quickly.

"We may take sections of our country, we may take large sections of our country that aren't so seriously affected and we may do it that way."

He added: "A lot of people misinterpret when I say go back - they're going to be practising as much as you can social distancing, and washing your hands and not shaking hands and all of the things we talked about."

He promised more details next week.

What could he be planning?
In a letter to state governors on Thursday, Mr Trump said his team plans to release federal social distancing guidelines that may advise some regions to loosen restrictions.

Mr Trump wrote of a "long battle ahead" and said "robust" testing protocols might allow some counties to lift their safeguards against the coronavirus.

He said the "new guidelines" would create low, medium and high risk zones that would allow the government to advise on "maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place".

The plan emerged as new research on Thursday estimated Covid-19-related deaths in the US could top 80,000 over the coming four months.

As many as 2,300 patients could die every day during the epidemic peak, set for some point in April, even if people observe strict social distancing, according to the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.

Can the president order everyone back to work?
No. Earlier this month, he set a 15-day period to slow down the spread of Covid-19 by urging all Americans to drastically scale back their public interactions.

But those guidelines were voluntary and did not amount to a national order.

The US Constitution makes clear states have the power for maintaining public order and safety, which scholars say means it is the responsibility of governors to decide when virus-related restrictions get lifted.

Currently 21 US states have told residents to stay in their homes in order to contain the pandemic.

What's happening elsewhere in the US?
In other developments:
Canada has condemned a US proposal to deploy troops along their joint border to help fight the spread of coronavirus, with the deputy prime minister saying it would be an "entirely unnecessary step which we would view as damaging to our relationship"
A supermarket in Pennsylvania said it had to destroy more than $35,000 worth of food after a woman intentionally coughed all over it in a coronavirus prank. The local prosecutor said it would decide whether or not to press charges once the suspect had been tested for the illness
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, coyotes are being seen roaming the empty streets of the California city, where residents have withdrawn behind closed doors to limit the spread of the virus



Grim milestone? It is only grim regarding serious cases of it.

There is this huge fallacy going on that getting Covid-19 is grim.

When in reality it is no more grim that getting the flu for 95% of those who contract it.

And last year in the US 35 million people got the flu. And 56 thousand died from it.

Let me know when Covid-19 reaches a third of those numbers here.



Last edited by EzraS on 26 Mar 2020, 10:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pepe
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26 Mar 2020, 10:10 pm

EzraS wrote:

First of all I was responding to all those who have said we have to quarantine until the virus runs its coarse.

Second of all what is rapid testing supposed to accomplish? All those who test negative go back to work? What is to stop them from catching the virus after they test negative? How many originally infected people did it take to start the pandemic? One?


The suggestion I heard was that those with proven antibodies are presumed to have built up an immunity, and it is these people who could go back to work.



jimmy m
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26 Mar 2020, 10:12 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Quote:
What could he be planning?
In a letter to state governors on Thursday, Mr Trump said his team plans to release federal social distancing guidelines that may advise some regions to loosen restrictions.

Mr Trump wrote of a "long battle ahead" and said "robust" testing protocols might allow some counties to lift their safeguards against the coronavirus.

He said the "new guidelines" would create low, medium and high risk zones that would allow the government to advise on "maintaining, increasing, or relaxing social distancing and other mitigation measures they have put in place".


I suspect it will be different approaches for different areas of the country. Federal social distancing guidelines may have several variations [a, b, or c] that is specific to each county in each state depending on where they are in the infection curve.

In the county where I live we have one person infected with the coronavirus. It is a big county almost twice the size of New York City. Then a few days later it was announced in the paper that we had zero. It turned out it was an accounting error. Our local hospital has no cases. Maybe it makes sense in my county to send everyone back to work and just quarantine the ancient folks, like 71 year old me, asking me to shelter in place at home. And then do a lot of coronavirus test just to be on the cautions side.


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Pepe
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26 Mar 2020, 10:13 pm

EzraS wrote:

Grim milestone? It is only grim regarding serious cases of it.

There is this huge fallacy going on that getting Covid-19 is grim.

When in reality it is no more grim that getting the flu for 95% of those who contract it.

And last year in the US 35 million people got the flu. And 56 thousand died from it.

Let me know when Covid-19 reaches a third of those numbers here.


Agreed.
I am not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this concept.



eikonabridge
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26 Mar 2020, 10:15 pm

jimmy m wrote:
The UK government has ordered more than 3 million finger prick antibody tests that could be ready in a matter of days.

Not clear where they got the test kits from. Hopefully from the US?

Both Spain and Czech Republic were duped by some dishonest Chinese manufacturers of rapid tests: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic/


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EzraS
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26 Mar 2020, 10:16 pm

Pepe wrote:
EzraS wrote:

First of all I was responding to all those who have said we have to quarantine until the virus runs its coarse.

Second of all what is rapid testing supposed to accomplish? All those who test negative go back to work? What is to stop them from catching the virus after they test negative? How many originally infected people did it take to start the pandemic? One?


The suggestion I heard was that those with proven antibodies are presumed to have built up an immunity, and it is these people who could go back to work.


Okay... I'm not sure how one could have built up an immunity to a new virus strain though. Except for the tiny fraction of the population who contracted it already. If that is the case it sounds like your best bet is to get it so that you can get back to work sooner.



Last edited by EzraS on 26 Mar 2020, 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Pepe
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26 Mar 2020, 10:16 pm

jimmy m wrote:
Maybe it makes sense in my county to send everyone back to work and just quarantine the ancient folks, like 71 year old me, asking me to shelter in place at home. And then do a lot of coronavirus test just to be on the cautions side.


Makes sense to me. <shrug>



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26 Mar 2020, 10:19 pm

Pepe wrote:
EzraS wrote:

Grim milestone? It is only grim regarding serious cases of it.

There is this huge fallacy going on that getting Covid-19 is grim.

When in reality it is no more grim that getting the flu for 95% of those who contract it.

And last year in the US 35 million people got the flu. And 56 thousand died from it.

Let me know when Covid-19 reaches a third of those numbers here.


Agreed.
I am not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this concept.


Media hype and maybe watching too many plague and zombie apocalypse movies and tv shows.



Pepe
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26 Mar 2020, 10:22 pm

EzraS wrote:
Pepe wrote:
EzraS wrote:

First of all I was responding to all those who have said we have to quarantine until the virus runs its coarse.

Second of all what is rapid testing supposed to accomplish? All those who test negative go back to work? What is to stop them from catching the virus after they test negative? How many originally infected people did it take to start the pandemic? One?


The suggestion I heard was that those with proven antibodies are presumed to have built up an immunity, and it is these people who could go back to work.


Okay... I'm not sure how one could have built up an immunity to a new virus strain though. Except for the tiny fraction of the population who contracted it already. If that is the case it sounds like your best bet is to get it so that you can get back to work sooner.


There are suggestions that 50% of the UK has the disease.
That would mean the person suspects there is a massive amount who are unaware they have/had it, since it can be so mild.

If you watched the video I presented earlier, you would have seen/heard that antibodies only become obvious in 4-5 days.
Testing people if they have had the virus could determine who is safe to go back to work, according to Brett.